Let's Deny Ignorance: The Not So Doom-y Truth About Comet ISON

Scurrilous
reply to post by SheopleNation

 

I'm quite aware of the intelligence and input Phage projects, and the fact that he carefully articulates his contributions based on fact. However, I noticed his frustration last year on many threads concerning Nibiru and Elenin, which he eventually seemed to give up on. I don't think it's a matter of him being afraid to get caught with his foot in his mouth, as he always offers intelligent insight relative to the data and information he has available. Phage doesn't tend to make claims that can't be backed up; given the wealth of information we have at this time regarding ISON, I don't see why he would refrain. I think he sincerely has a lack of interest in expending and wasting his time trying to educate those who are unwilling to listen as he has in the past. I think he should put his knowledge to work on the more complex and confusing topics, as this "ISON" debate is obviously not (other than to those stubborn enough to ignore fact). On the bright side, we have members such as the author of this thread who are quite capable of cleaning up the garbage effectively.

I respect Phage and it is always fun when he is around but I personally would rather he be working on some brilliant project to help mankind. For some reason I always thought he would bring us zero point energy or something amazing like that...

The Bot

reply to post by payta


Let's put it this way. If we just look at doomsday predictions regarding celestial objects since the advent of YouTube there have probably been millions. They have all been wrong. NASA on the other hand has never made a doomsday prediction and have in fact come out on a multiple occasions to dispel the fear surrounding some of the Internet's more popular doomsday predictions. So far they have not been wrong on this front. And NASA is supposed to be the untrustworthy one?

With that said NASA is hardly the end all be all of space. As has been pointed out time and again there are other space agencies, professional astronomers working for universities and observatories, and amateur astronomers. When it comes to discovering and observing celestial objects most of the work is done by these last two. NASA merely collates their data into a more complete model.

I saw this in the news this morning when I woke up. These meteorites are so tiny, only pea size. Poor kid, but hey cool story!!

Kid hit on head with meteorites

And this last night in Canada. Waiting for confirmation however.

Meteor in Quebec

Regardless i'm still anticipating whether or not it will come out of the sun clean or fragmented and its path back to us.

yorkshirelad

jlafleur02
One problem I have is that they don't know whether or not it will break up. When calculating trajectory, you need speed and mass. If it breaks up the mass will be different so the trajectory will be different. We can't possibly know if or how it will break up, what size it will break into. Right now the mass is such that it will have an orbital arc that carries it away. Reduce the mass and the arc gets tighter bringing it closer and changing speeds. We will find out when it emerges on the other side.

But the orbital plane of the comet is different from earths so it won't matter. Your thinking is two dimensional like Kahn in Star Trek you need to think 3D like Kirk.

Actually the path it takes if it stays whole is in line with earth just way above it. If it breaks up I really doubt that it would be in 2 pieces. I would think it will be a whole lot of pieces. each pieces will have its own trajectory. Like a snowball that breaks up after you throw it, it doesn't all go in the same place.

reply to post by daryllyn


SF! Thank you very much for breaking down what my brain is saying and I am too dumb to try to put into words! Thank you so much lol my mom is one of those people that watch the you tube guy that changes the color of the comet and stuff and she's always believing him 100% Way too funny and you did a good job explaining it all. Thanks for your effort you put into this.

lets point out some more facts:

Our Government which controls NASA has and would never lie to us. False

If a Space Object was endangering our planet our Government would tell us right away. False

Nasa and other scientist proclaimed that this could be the comet of the century and have been down playing that statement ever since. True

Nobody seems to know for sure if this thing will survive its pass of the Sun and what will happen if it does survive. True

There has been a noticeable lack of photographs of Ison from NASA. True

Nasa and scientist do agree that if ISON survives perihelion that the earth will pass through its tail debris in mid January.
True

Professionals cannot agree what passing through this tail debris will do to our atmosphere predicting everything from
meteor showers to green effervescent clouds. True

Nasa has yet to outline the supposed size of the comet nucleus with actual photographs or pictorial reference giving only numbers that have changed over the course of months. True

NASA has given no information on how this comet will affect our sun if it explodes next to the sun or if it indeed dives into the sun. True

To conclude It is the uncertainty itself of the Science community which leads to speculations of possible Doom.

I also am one of the few that believe comet ISON is larger than it is being estimated by NASA using common sense physics.

The reason it did not brighten as much or as quickly as expected is because the object IS larger and a larger Comet will take longer to heat up and react because of its sheer mass.

I believe this also explains the wings anomaly of the comet. Perhaps these are not wings but simply the result of the outline of a much bigger comet which had finally begun reaching temperatures high enough to begin reacting.

eriktheawful
reply to post by Signals

 

I'm sorry, but that's not quite true.

We might not be able to predict exactly how many pieces might form, but we can certainly can tell if they will change orbit or not:

Ke=(mv^2)/2

By knowing the comet's mass, and it's velocity, we know how much energy it has.

In order for ANY piece of the comet, no mater it's size in mass, to change orbits, it MUST OVERCOME that energy already there.

And considering the velocity it has right now, the theoretic explosion would need to be on the order of many hundreds of megatons.

Any one (even with out a computer) can sit down and compute how much energy would be released if the entire comet was made up of something that could explode, and figure out how much energy that would impart.

Using the above formula, anyone, with nothing more than pencil and paper, and figure out the amount of energy the comet already has.

And unless your theoretic explosion can exceed the comet's mass times it's velocity (huge right now) squared, divided by 2, the pieces are not going to go anywhere too far from the orbital path it is on.

edit on 26-11-2013 by eriktheawful because: (no reason given)

What if the pieces or the whole comet is hit by a powerful solar flare, could this not change its orbit or the orbit of the pieces. This to me represents the only possibility of any near misses or hits on the earth.

its a rock!

On any given evening, amateur astronomers are sweeping the skies using telescopes mounted in backyard observatories that are the envy of many major universities.

Trust me, they will NEVER grasp this concept.

reply to post by CyberTruth

Actually I'm surprised at the amount of data that is availible. I have been tracking this thing all day on the SOHO satelite and for anyone interested the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) spacecraft will be poiting especially off-center from the sun so we can watch ISON in almost real time pass the sun...

Peace

Oh and about it's predicted trajectory...



It's dead-on.

payta
I cant believe how many people trust NASA, and actually believe we'd be warned if a comet was heading our way.
I put my hopes in some of the 'amateur' astronomers out there, i guess a few are honest.
This is just like what happens with scientists and global warming, they hide the truth from us.
DONT TRUST THEM!

The bulk of the info about NEO (comets included) comes from amateurs and is reported to the Minor Planet Center where the info is made public, others confirm, data is compiled, and observations used to calculate orbits.

It has a lot less to do with NASA than most think.

Answer this: How can NASA hide the information from the very people that are providing it.... when it isn't even reported to NASA in the first place?

Think about that.

Just when I was planning a D-Day Party....sheeesh

reply to post by payta


I see this claim made frequently on conspiracy sites but I have yet to see anyone back it up with specific examples of what NASA has hidden from us. They have clearly indicated that they have never had the opportunity to observe a comet like ISON before and are currently observing its behavior to learn as much as they can. In fact, they have just stated the following:

Astronomer Karl Battams of NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign urges readers to remember the following: "Comet ISON is a dynamically new sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet just days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of detail - we're breaking new ground! When we factor in your standard 'comets are unpredictable' disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe for the unknown."

Read more about it here: spaceweather.com...

reply to post by CyberTruth

Our Government which controls NASA has and would never lie to us. False

Yes but NASA isn't the space police, the Minor Planet Center is the hub for near earth objects, not NASA.

If a Space Object was endangering our planet our Government would tell us right away. False

There are thousands of eyes on the sky every night, around the world. These astronomers do the majority of the legwork when it comes to near earth objects. There is nothing in the sky that they cannot also see, and it would not be possible to keep a lid on it. Info about incoming objects is made available to the public as soon as it's reported because of the world wide and collaborative effort it takes to track objects.

There has been a noticeable lack of photographs of Ison from NASA. True

Stop giving NASA so much credit. They have surprisingly little to do with it. It is not their job to take pictures. The pictures you see of the comet are generally from pro/amateur astronomers, from right in their back yards.

Professionals cannot agree what passing through this tail debris will do to our atmosphere predicting everything from
meteor showers to green effervescent clouds. True

And?

Neither are dangerous. We pass through comet debris fields many times a year without incident apart from some nice meteor showers.

Nasa has yet to outline the supposed size of the comet nucleus with actual photographs or pictorial reference giving only numbers that have changed over the course of months. True

Nice try... again.... this isn't NASA's job.

NASA has given no information on how this comet will affect our sun if it explodes next to the sun or if it indeed dives into the sun. True

Because.... its not a big deal.

Do some research.

reply to post by operation mindcrime


I hope you are right and they keep all these images coming.

Lets hope they don't spend too much time in the editing room.

CyberTruth
reply to post by operation mindcrime

 

I hope you are right and they keep all these images coming.

Lets hope they don't spend too much time in the editing room.

About NASA and NEOs

Please go give a read. I wrote the linked thread for people who much like you, mistakenly think NASA hides the truth. They have amassed a reputation about being big fat liars about NEOs and it couldn't be further than the truth. Let's stop giving NASA so much credit, hmmm?

MidnightSunshine
reply to post by daryllyn

 

Well Miss Daryllyn, I wasn't worried about it before, and I'm certainly not worried about it now.

Thank you for your common sense approach, I hope it helps relieve at least someone's 'doom and gloom'!

I hope so, too. I know many love their doom porn, but, unfortunately, there is almost always a logical answer to the fear... if one is willing to step away from youtube to find it.