posted on Nov, 21 2013 @ 12:04 AM
It's hard to talk about WWIII without focusing almost entirely on the US, China, and Russia, probably in that order. But that won't always be the
case, and in fact I would contend that at the point when that is not the case, a world war becomes much more likely. I don't believe that because I
think the US is keeping order, I just think that removing a major player opens the board up in seldom considered ways that increase the chances of
both aggression or war by miscalculation.
So allow me to briefly suggest a few plausible scenarios whereby the US could lose enough clout on the world stage for such considerations to become
relevant, and invite you to offer your own scenarios or just your own thoughts on what WWIII might be if the US were not such a major factor.
For this post, I will start with the "furthest to fall" type scenarios, where the initiating event affects all nations, not just the US, but the US
suffers the worst because it has the most complex vital systems to lose. A global economic collapse, a solar flare that upsets or completely destroys
communications or even power infrastructure, a super volcano that renders airpower and in fact most aspirating engines useless in a conflict region,
What happens if America suddenly needs a lot of manpower to solve its own problems and isn't able to use all of its fancy electronics or logistical
resources overseas, while every other nation on the planet is also in desperate circumstances?
For one thing, I think this might be one of the few scenarios where North Korea really would risk invading the South. I wouldn't be shocked if they
immediately saw it as their only chance to break out from under our boot heel and moved the minute they saw we couldn't respond short of a nuclear
wear, then hold Japan hostage at nuke point in hopes that we will let it stand, and without the US, the only ones who really have much say in what
will happen are the Chinese, and it's probably in their interest to let it happen. North Korea punches itself out in the process of overrunning South
Korea, problematic people in the NK govt can be killed by the Chinese and it will be blamed on SK, then China can protect Japan from their newly
enriched and reigned in puppet- they win all around without much of a "world war" on that particular part.
Taiwan goes almost immediately as well.
But without the US meddling over there, almost any motivation that the Chinese and Russians had to play nice with eachother is out the window too. The
Russians might reasonably fear that a suddenly expansionist China that has already dealt with Korea Taiwan and Japan will begin to eye that vast
wasteland and pacific coast with lots of resources and relative few Russians in it, and the Chinese might feel it is time for them to be the only 600
pound gorilla in Asia. It's definitely too risky for Russia to start anything unless they see it coming either way, but Chinese manpower and
proximity to the theater means that the worse the technological situation is the more likely they are to move on Russia.
Then there's South East Asia- with China to its North and India to its West and no more Marine Expeditionary Unit drinking with the bargirls and
boygirls of Bangkok and waiting to be needed. India will probably try to fill the vacuum we leave there and China probably won't like it. That part
of the war might remain cold for a bit, but if either side decided they needed more water or a puppet state as a buffer zone...
And if Russia and China are in a staring contest, and China and India are in a staring contest, and there's no US for India to turn to, it makes
sense for Russia and India to align. This is bad news for every country whose name ends in ISTAN, because Russia and China will need a secure line of
logistics between themselves and a plan to keep China out of the Middle East if it comes to that.
Which brings us to the Middle East. Iran is safer with no US, assuming Israel doesn't feel cornered into preemptively nuking everyone who doesn't
like them, but they may be in the awkward position of having to choose between Russia/India, the closer powers with whom they have older ties, or
China- the side that may seem to have a better chance of winning the war, depending on the specific situation. Iran could actually go neutral- maybe
even have a revolution if thats what it took to stay neutral. Or they could invade Saudi Arabia and the other smaller Persian Gulf states either on
their own behalf- perhaps even to gain security for a neutral position- or they might do it on behalf of whichever alliance they chose.
The Sunni states could fall, they could unite against Israel or against Iran if provoked. I imagine Syria Palestine Lebanon and Israel as ending up in
a very messy war, Iraq ripping itself apart and being partially absorbed by Iran and Turkey as part of a sort of Molotov-Ribbentrop deal between
distrustful neighbors who are both resisting Russian pressure against their neutrality.
I imagine Europe mostly just trying to hold itself in order in such a chaotic global situation. Financial interests would probably dictate a passive
support for China, and their strategic interests would dictate preparation against the possibility of future Russian aggression in Europe. Support for
Turkish/Iranian neutrality would probably be high on their list then, so if Iran grabbed the oil they would probably whole-heartedly embrace that too.
Could Iran then force them to stand aside and let Israel be overrun without any assistance? Might they even take some role to prevent Israel from
launching a "Samson Scenario" nuclear attack?
I haven't been examining this scenario for a long time or anything, but I guess my initial assessment is that if the US falls, everyone needs to try
and establish a new balance of power, and it could lead to a series of semi-related alliances designed to balance out a growing Chinese sphere of
influence, creating a cold war with many hot spots that could eventually turn into an all out war between Russia/India and China, with Central Asia
and South East Asia caught in the middle, the western middle east destabilized, and Europe playing a supporting role to an Asian alliance.