China vs Russia is a scenario that is not impossible. Today it seems unrealistic. Only 25 years ago that was an issue of the day for USSR. A long and
heavily armed border on both sides between two "socialist" contenders.
Today seems their interests match. For how long? China copied all Russian weaponry given by Russia benevolently - from jets to air defense to subs, to
Now seems China engaged heavily on the East - with Japan and other smaller nations. With main opposing superpower - that of USA. But don't forget the
ancient Chinese "Art of War". That all may be delusion.
Medvedev said recently Russia and China will not be competitors. Why did he say that when everyone knows Russia and China are together in SCO and
If USA stands down for any reason, Russia's biggest enemy automatically will become China. China the most populous country, economy N1 and terribly
well armed, is just the next door neighbor of vast lands of Siberia that Moscow will see hard to defend. Europe is of no military match for Russia.
Well, imagine that happens before the stepping down of USA. For whatever reason the Chinese have for themselves. They know they cannot rule the world.
They will hardly invade USA or even Japan with one only carrier versus many. But they can pour thru the Northern and Western borders with Russia or
thru the territory of Kazakhstan, at flat terrain where the roads, railroads and pipes run. It is much easier to reach far West thru Kazachstan than
if attack thru ridged Siberia with limited roads. Once they enter Russian territory Russia cannot "nuke them" unless it nukes its own cities and
infrastructure. This is a vast land connected from West to East by only one - two railroads. Two-three massive incursions from Vladivostok to
Kazakhstan will break apart communications, and Russia will see itself separated into pieces larger than Europe. Will it start nuking Chinese cities
as a result? I don't know. Let not forget the fact China itself has anywhere between 300 and 2000 warheads, carried on medium range missiles such that
were scrapped by Russia. Russia cannot avoid those missiles land on its territory because they are just too close.
Does Russia contemplate China scenario at all?
The Russian latest and biggest drills since the end of Cold War were done all they way from Siberia to Sakhalin, moving hundreds of thousands troops
and tanks along the longest railroad. That is nearly bordering China on the North. That show of might praised by Putin as never seen since Soviet time
or even during that time, comes to warn someone. America? America has to fear only the ICBM not the ground forces. Jaan, with the staged sea attack of
island Sakhalin? May be. Perhaps it was equally a warning to China while pretending to be a warning to Japan.
China grew too strong for too short time. Something like Imperial Japan from the Russo-Japanese war 1905 followed by the Japanese invasion of the East
Asia, followed by WW2.
What side will USA take in such scenario? At one moment, USA may need to save Russia from collapse. Unless it is ready to deal with a superpower China
stretching from Urals to the Yellow sea.
The nukes alone could not win territory. Putin put all efforts in making new nukes and new delivery systems, such as new generation subs and ICBM not
to be caught by the American ABM. May be the danger is not so hi and far. Still formidable, the Russian ground forces may have lost momentum after
endless cuts and re-organizations of units. They may not find themselves fit to withstand the hard trained and organized biggest army of the world,
that of China. Moreover, they will fight against their own weapons for most part. Will China advance at all cost disregarding human life in its own
backyard as retaliation of nuclear armed Russia? I don't know what the real Chinese intentions are. It seems more logical and easy for China to
advance North than to seek its future lands beyond oceans.
edit on 8-12-2013 by 2012newstart because: (no reason given)