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UK Long Range Snow Forecast!?

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posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 01:14 PM
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Piers Corbyn, James Madden and Jonathan Powell are NOT trained meteorologists - and they frequently promote sensational headlines for publicity purposes. Every now and then, of course, there are almost, nearly, sort of right in a roundabout way.... (as indeed would be anyone who predicts the same seasonal weather the same time every year).

It will however be turning much colder next week - according to current computer model output - and there are some indications that it could remain cold for more than just a couple of days. There are also some indications that we could see snow other than just on hills. But it is the second half of November, so what do you expect? .....


It is. of course, easy to say that we will have ots and lots of snow - and trumpet to the world that you got it right whilst the Met Office dithered, if at some point snow does briefly fall to low level. All the while keeping quiet about all the times you said the same and nothing of the sort happened.

It is very unlikely to be the coldest winter in decades. It's also unlikely we'll have massive floods (as the Star headined today). It's very likely we'll have some widespread cold and snow at times this winter, but also some milder spells. And even if late Nov & Dec are cold, like 2010, we could see a very mild Feb, like 2011. But no-one knows and anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's....

(and btw I'm an amateur weather forecaster - not qualified in any way though. My latest forecast is here)




posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 03:43 PM
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reply to post by yorkshirelad
 


Interesting post about the jet streams. Cheers. Amazing to the think solar activity can affect our weather patterns. More accurate probably than Michael Fish



posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 04:08 PM
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reply to post by gilbis
 

Poor Michael Fish! He was pilloried for giving a forecast that originated from the UK Met Office, i.e it wasn't his forecast!



posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 04:58 PM
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Is the OP predicting Winter? Is not a fall in temperatures, a bit of wind and heavy snow (somewhere) in Great Britain sort or (er) usual?

I predict it will be cold until the Spring, when it will warm up.

Regards

edit on 14/11/2013 by paraphi because: typo



posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 05:45 PM
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reply to post by mclinking
 


Depends on what part of the USA .. we're a very, very large country.
Where I live it's been about 5 years since we had a "strong winter" of any variety, so far this fall has been quite warm and dry which is unusual for the PNW. We did have the wettest September recorded - ever - followed by the driest October..

In the Midwest though, there is no such thing as a "normal" winter. Some winters it's snow and freezing temps with blizzards and ice storms, then some winters you'll be lucky to get a single really strong snow storm. One winter the snow drifted 14 feet in places on our farm, we had to dig tunnels to get into the barn to feed the animals, the garage was entirely buried. People go on and on about "normal weather" but I'm convinced such a thing doesn't even exist.



posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 06:09 PM
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TruthxIsxInxThexMist
reply to post by mclinking
 


I've mentioned before about 'Chimneys'. They stopped building homes with Chimneys because the Energy Companies weren't making enough money!

They also put Radiators under the windows, so that even more heat escapes which means you need to heat rooms for longer, thus more cash is spent!
edit on 14-11-2013 by TruthxIsxInxThexMist because: (no reason given)


Your right. five of my seven rads on under windows, although its academic for me at the moment, my heating isnt working and i cant afford a plumber, im gonna have to try and fix it myself, my kids cant freeze.



posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 06:19 PM
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gilbis
reply to post by mclinking
 


Bloody Hell! 30 yrs of bad winters! Best stock up on Brandy and Chicken Soup! Lol

Is the chicken soup really necessary?...




posted on Nov, 14 2013 @ 11:53 PM
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reply to post by paraphi
 

You might have added that Dec 2010 was the coldest in the UK for 100 years or that 2013 Spring was the coldest in the UK since 1770 : these are facts.
So what is 'normal' now in the UK?



posted on Nov, 15 2013 @ 12:57 AM
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With ice at both poles at their greatest extent in years, I'm stocking up on food, tinned mostley, just incase of power cuts, plus other forms of cooking heat, (hexamamene blocks) and candles.



posted on Nov, 15 2013 @ 07:01 AM
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thedoctorswife

TruthxIsxInxThexMist
reply to post by mclinking
 


I've mentioned before about 'Chimneys'. They stopped building homes with Chimneys because the Energy Companies weren't making enough money!

They also put Radiators under the windows, so that even more heat escapes which means you need to heat rooms for longer, thus more cash is spent!
edit on 14-11-2013 by TruthxIsxInxThexMist because: (no reason given)


Your right. five of my seven rads on under windows, although its academic for me at the moment, my heating isnt working and i cant afford a plumber, im gonna have to try and fix it myself, my kids cant freeze.



Good Luck with that. Would give a hand if I lived next door!



posted on Nov, 15 2013 @ 08:35 AM
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reply to post by paraphi
 


Predicting winter? Merely pointing out the hype by the tabloids and what peoples opinions are regarding this. Some people!! Geez



posted on Nov, 15 2013 @ 10:52 AM
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I've just had a look at recent predictions, all based on computer models, from the French Meteo channel and the UK Weather Channel. Their results :
Cold is to intensify and shall last for at least 2 weeks in Europe and keep going into December.
I am on the French/Spanish border and we've had a gale non-stop for 5 days and it's perishing here! However, the real cold is expected next Wednesday. As for the USA, their cold snap starts today.



posted on Nov, 15 2013 @ 03:30 PM
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reply to post by mclinking
 


And your point is?

The good thing about Great Britain's weather is that it is variable. Records are broken every year as statistics are cut in myriad ways to show the coldest, wettest, hottest, driest etc... It's a bit of a national obsession.

Spring in 2013 was only the coldest for 50 years according to the Met Office. Not since 1770 as your post suggested. www.metoffice.gov.uk...

The Thames has not frozen downstream since 1814. The River used to freeze fairly regularly. Regular enough for Londoners to hold Frost Fairs.

Regards



posted on Nov, 16 2013 @ 10:30 AM
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reply to post by paraphi
 


Oh dear oh dear! Are you swallowing the crap spouted by the UK Met propaganda channel? You need to do your homework. I am not making any predictions, but the computer models are and constantly fail, especially the Canadian one. But of course if you solely read or watch MSM, you get lies, falsified data. The BBC are still showing ice caps melting, as per Attenborough.



posted on Nov, 17 2013 @ 04:42 AM
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reply to post by mclinking
 


To be honest, we tend not to pay much attention to the Canadian model - the American (GFS), European (ECM) and our own MetO are the main ones we use, although Japanese model (JMA) is also highly rated.

Anyway, I see Nathan has upped the stakes further today! However, when he says "The latest detailed forecasts for winter 2013 ALL point to months of relentless extreme cold with heavy snow likely across the country" he means his mates Jonathan and James down the pub. The story breaches the Jounalist's Code of Conduct (because it's not based on facts and I'm pretty sure Nathan knows full well it's a load of utter twaddle). But who cares about the truth when you can seriously frighten elderly people? Which is basically all the cad is doing. An utter scumbag



posted on Nov, 18 2013 @ 02:27 PM
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reply to post by AndyMayhew
 

I agree with all that. As for the record of the UK Met Office predictions, look at this sorry tale :

wattsupwiththat.com...

Again, the UK Met office is going out on a limb by predicting a mild Winter, hoping that after being wrong 5 times in a row, they'll get it right this time!



posted on Nov, 20 2013 @ 12:04 PM
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reply to post by mclinking
 


2010/11 was a mild winter - and last winter wasn't exactly cold, being only just a little below average overall



posted on Nov, 20 2013 @ 12:14 PM
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Well, what a surprise... Winter is going to get cold and there might be snow... Who'd thunkit?



swanne
But then I guess Global Warmers will probably just say, global cooling is caused by the global warming.


Not that I am taking sides in this particular debate, but if the Earth is warming (regardless of the cause) and the ice caps melt, that will actually lead to a major cooling, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.

This is because the fresh water will disrupt the Gulf Stream, ceasing the warm water which currently keeps the UK and Northern Europe nice and cosy. Without it, we would be as cold as Siberia.

So, while I am not going to stop you throwing mud at your "opponents", you really should consider what you say first.



posted on Nov, 20 2013 @ 12:21 PM
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mclinking
You might have added that Dec 2010 was the coldest in the UK for 100 years or that 2013 Spring was the coldest in the UK since 1770 : these are facts.
So what is 'normal' now in the UK?


No, they are not "facts". Last Winter was actually not that bad at all and nothing compared to '63 or '47 to name just two.

And if you knew anything about UK weather, the only thing that is normal or constant is the fact it changes all the time. We sit on the confluence of several major weather systems and it can change in minutes, from a nice Sunny day to a torrential downpour to fog.



posted on Nov, 20 2013 @ 01:45 PM
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AndyMayhew
reply to post by mclinking
 


2010/11 was a mild winter - and last winter wasn't exactly cold, being only just a little below average overall

Dec 2010 was the coldest December for 100 years! Were you out of the country or something?? March 23 of 2013 was so cold that a young man of 25 died of exposure near Burnley, that March being the coldest for 50 years. That is NOT true because I was in the UK in 1963 in that memorable Winter and after the 15th, the thaw set in.



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