Here comes the big one!

Was just at solarham.net and sunspot 1899 is rotating into view. It is extremely LARGE! Check it out. This may be the spot with the kill shot! Hope everyone is as prepared as they can be. What year was the cme that knocked us off grid and fried wires and such? Hope it wasnt in 1899!
solarham.net...

reply to post by earthart


Am I missing it's size, I can't tell how big it is from the link. Walk us through it, what am I missing? I do see an indent in the sun, is that what you mean, is that how large sunspots look from the side? thanks.

reply to post by Aleister


Yes it is. If you look for the number 1899 ,you will see the round brown spot rotating into view. Go back to same link in about 4 hours and it should be more noticeable, but yo can see it is gargantuan compared to all the others.

was 1859...the carrington event
en.wikipedia.org...
hmm also 2 cme\s just like yesterday....

I wouldn't worry about it too much. The kill shot would have to be truly monstrous, along the lines of the Carrington Event or even bigger.

But here it doesn't appear to be what you think

looks like a normal sunspot on the left limb...
doubt its THE killshot....
hopefully it is...

reply to post by ressiv

It sure seems things are ramping up a big show.... Lets see..
I read about carrington event and have to wonder if there is a way we can tell now that the first cme from two days ago cleared the plasma path for the second one to catch the first and make for a more disturbing event?

reply to post by Dr UAE

I have to agree, your sun image does tone it down a tad, though still large.

This is what was on the frontpage of Spaceweather.com (tue 12/11/13)

MINOR STORM WARNING: A 'cannibal CME' might be en route to Earth. NOAA analysts suspect that two CMEs propelled into space by the X-class flares of Nov. 8th and 10th have merged into a single cannibalized cloud. It could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 13th, producing minor geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

www.spaceweather.com...


There is a map of the sun on the site where you can see sunspots and their numbers, however I could not find number 1899. Is this because the spot has not 'turend into view' yet?

Thank you very much!

reply to post by Stomp

No i believe your site is just not updated possibly. The site i use is a subscriber and donation type site with no authority of numbering spots.

Just in time for the "blackout" drill in the East coast of the US too.

You know, the drill where they "simulate" a massive power grid failure? Lol

earthart
reply to post by Stomp

 

No i believe your site is just not updated possibly. The site i use is a subscriber and donation type site with no authority of numbering spots.

OK
How about those awesome (gif?)animations of erupting sunspots? Do you get them from solarham? This 1899 could offer a pretty burst!

reply to post by Stomp


yes there there. I like solarham because they have all sorts of gauges that are used and everything is on one page. Check it out for a while and youll like it. Helioviewer is cool also.

reply to post by Vortiki

They will practice for a crisis unlike anything the real grid has ever seen, and more than 150 companies and organizations have signed up to participate.

...

One goal of the drill, called GridEx II, is to explore how governments would react as the loss of the grid crippled the supply chain for everyday necessities.

[url]http://www.nytimes.com...[/u rl]

Very convenient timing indeed Guess we'l find out in the coming few days.
Let's at least hope for clear skies if this is earth-heading, might be some auroras!

It would be crazy if we had a sun spot number coincident with the date of the carrington event and this sun spot would have the same effects that this event caused in 1859.

S&F

It looks cool in X-Ray


HMI Intensitygram:


HMI Magnetogram


Sun in 171 Å:



sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

Drawing of Carrington event by Richard Carrington:

reply to post by earthart

It is extremely LARGE!

What makes you think that? Judging from all information available so far its gonna be extremely normal or even below average.

According to solham it's AR1875 becoming visible again, it is not yet officially renumbered let alone classified. Strong X-class flare probability projected is rather low.

The third area of interest is the return of old sunspot 1875 back onto the visible disk and off the east limb. The active region should be renumbered 1899 and was responsible for a number of farsided eruptions during its transit, but remains to be seen if the sunspot is still capable of producing strong solar flares. We will get a better look at it during the next 24 hours.

To put things in context.

How big are sunspots

The image on the left was acquired by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory on May 11, 2012, showing Active Region 11476. The one on the right comes courtesy of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, and shows the largest sunspot ever captured on film, AR 14886. It was nearly the diameter of Jupiter — 88,846 miles (142,984 km)!

Even if this active region is capable of producing a X-class flare at all it's far from being 'killshot material'. We'll still have to wait for ISON.


nasa.gov

sdo.nasa.gov

solen.info

reply to post by earthart


SolarWatcher aka Barcaroller is a great source to watch for this!

Another X1.1 Solar Flare was reported at 5:14UT this morning around active region 11890. Today's impulsive eruption occurred in an earth-facing position on the solar disk which would imply the resulting coronal mass ejection should have components heading Earths way. A very bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed at the time of making this video, the bulk mass seems to be heading well south of the ecliptic however a glancing blow is expected from this blast sometime late November 12. Associated with this eruption was a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) reaching 360 Solar Flux Units lasting 3 minutes and a Type II/IV Sweep Frequency Event. 7 X-Class Solar Flares have been reported since October 25th and solar activity remains high as another two active regions are rotating the eastern limb today

I took a screenshot of space weather now, because I've seen them change/delete their content before.

I have never seen them circle sunspots before.
I have never seen them ever says anything as specific as this before "The next big flare will probably come from one of these two circled regions:"

Not very optimistic if you ask me.

Oh and this..

Flares from AR1890 could be particularly geoeffective. Because of the way the sun's magnetic field spirals through interplanetary space, AR1890 is magnetically connected to our planet.

That's cute.

How are we connected to it now? Didn't the last flare miss us? And wasn't it a whole lot more aligned before? Did I miss something lol?