reply to post by Slinki
This incident seems bizarre.
Two men armed with rifles, and toting backpacks with God only knows what inside them, break into a school at ten in the evening?
Lets just look at this sensibly shall we? At ten at night, there is going to be no one, and nothing worth strapping on a rifle for, wandering around
a middle school, so we have to assume one of a number of possibilities.
First, that the target of these fellows machinations was not actually in the school, but close to it, and they foolishly broke into the place because
they falsely believed it would be a stealthier approach to their actual target.
Second, that the objective these gentlemen sought was someone or something that they knew to be inside the school, out of hours. Perhaps a teacher or
assistant, caught up in some as yet undiscovered criminal enterprise, or a witness to the same, or evidence which might have seen the pair of them
Third, that these fellows armed themselves and broke into the school with the intention of causing a mass casualty event, or holding the entire staff
and student body to ransom.
These are the possibilities I can come up with. The third of these may, on face value, appear the most likely, but I would ask members to consider
First of all I would like to point out that where I use terms like "successful" or "desired outcome" I do not use them as if I, myself, would
consider these terms appropriate, but as if from the point of view of the perpetrators.
Let us say that I was of a mind to go and mow down a few hundred kids, teachers, and other functionaries at a school. I would have seen the news over
the last few years, and realised that there are certain elements which come together to make such an assault a success. First, there is the manner in
which the shooter has accessed the scene of the crime. In other instances where mass casualty events have taken place, the shooter has either been a
part of the school, or has shown up during the day, with all the targets he intends to hit, busy about their days toils, and has merely walked through
any perimeter security that exists, like doors and windows. Once access has been gained with rapidity and efficiency, the shooter may walk the halls,
spraying death in all directions with virtually no resistance, until the police arrive, and even at this point, may still wander the halls, awaiting
death at the hands of officers of the law.
There is no need to lay in wait for these targets, to catch them by the sort of surprise which would be the result of a sufficiently clever
entrenchment behind the security perimeter around the school, such as may exist. The shock value to the victims would be horrific, but the tactic adds
nothing to the potential success of the venture, and in fact diminishes it, as it adds the chance of premature discovery and subsequent arrest,
without having achieved any of the goals set at the inception of such a thing. Entering the building at ten at night, means laying in wait for nine
hours before even the cleaning staff are likely to arrive! It makes absolutely no sense, if the aim of the venture is a mass casualty event, when you
consider that lightning assaults in the mid morning or afternoon have proven effective for other shooters.
If they had explosives, they might have been able to turn the place into a giant exploding ransom trap, and that might explain the huge amount of
time they left themselves before the school was due to receive its first employee, but that is still an awfully long time to lay in wait, with all the
increased risk that entails.
In my view, it seems highly unlikely that these people were about the business of killing large numbers of school children, because the modus
operandi just does not sit correctly over that scenario.
There must have been something, or someone they wanted, inside that building, or at least, they must have thought that there was. I would wager (if I
was a) a betting man, and b) feeling flush) that there is more to this story than a potential mass murder attempt. If I was profiling this behavior, I
would be looking for alternative reasons for these men to have taken the decision to break into this school at this time. I would be looking at the
personal lives of every teacher, assistant, child, janitor, administrative staff, the dinner ladies, every single individual in that place, to see if
I could discover a specific target. I would be looking at the perpetrators phone and internet records, to see if they had received any calls from
organised criminal enterprises or their representatives, I would be looking into every other possibility than the idea that these fellows broke in, in
order to sit in a corner for nine hours before laying waste to the entire student body and faculty.
It just does not add up.
Edit to add:
The suspects were juveniles which alters the probability toward a mass casualty event after all. Still... it pays to keep thinking.
5-11-2013 by TrueBrit because: Added a line to account for new data.