What is the impact of the events at Fukushima?

I have heard many conflicting reports as to what is actually happening at the stricken nucleur plant, however none have answered my specific concerns ; so calling on all armchair nucleur scientists to answer my questions:

- Are there three molten blobs of nucleur waste melting through the watertable at fukushima? If so why has this not caused china syndrome and what is the likely outcome of this?

- On what timescale are the nucleur rods scheduled for removal , ( I understand this is already underway) i.e. when will we get the all clear for this potential ELE? .

- If the rods are succesfully removed and that potential ELE avoided what are the remaining risks/damage/impacts that are stilll yet to be faced by Japan and humanity from fukushima?

Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me ...

reply to post by larapa



Yes there is piles of fuel inside the shell of the former plant.

No its not quite burning through the earth, but it is.

Water is only a stop gap measure to keep the fuel from com-busting.

The name of the game is containment. Like digging a fire line around a forest fire.

Because japan is an island, the water table is next up for contamination.

The nuclear fuel has only one direction to go, that is south.

The heat is so intense near the fuel that Japanese robots cant withstand the heat and fail to operate.

They have no idea of the location of the fuel of the current state the fuel is in.

If the protective coating is gone from the fuel, when exposed to air it will com-bust.



Please forgive us Mother Earth, for we know not what we do to you.

reply to post by shaneslaughta

Yes there is piles of fuel inside the shell of the former plant. No its not quite burning through the earth, but it is.Water is only a stop gap measure to keep the fuel from com-busting.

Thank you for your reply however this is the type of conflicting report that i was talking about . To my understanding 3 blobs are in meltdown from other reactors on site (1-3?), while a pool holding the majority of the spent nucleur fuel rods in building four is what they are cooling with sea water ? To my understanding the blobs have been abandoned/lost ?

The heat is so intense near the fuel that Japanese robots cant withstand the heat and fail to operate. They have no idea of the location of the fuel of the current state the fuel is in. If the protective coating is gone from the fuel, when exposed to air it will com-bust.

Ok so where is this happening reactors 1-3? (I understand TEPCO have releasedvery limited info on this) and how much fuel is involved are they just pouring water down a smouldering hole in the ground?

Also what arethe impacts of this best/worse case scenario?

I'm no armchair nuclear scientist but I'll share my take on the situation. First let me say I don't think anyone including TEPCO understand the situation fully but they likely know more that what they publicize. There was a meltdown and there is nuclear material 'melting' it's way downward. There are massive amounts of water being pumped in, out and stored. There have been many leaks of this water and I can't see how the water table wouldn't be affected - by how much I think is up for debate.

The 'China Syndrome' (movie) is far from accurate - if you are referring to nuclear material being able to melt its way all the way through the crust and out the outside of the Earth that is. In reality it could only melt through several meters of concrete/soil before it cools enough to stop - in a worse case scenario.

I don't think this would anywhere close to an ELE. Worst case scenario would be a large portion of Japan would be uninhabitable for hundreds of years. Radiation of ocean water could potentially (or is) affecting seafood that would cause worldwide food shortages but nothing that would cause an ELE. As for timetable for removal of the rods, I'm thinking decades is a realistic assessment.

Since I admittedly don't know much in regards to nuclear physics, I'm not sure if the rods are still in a state of a nuclear reaction but I don't think so. If they were, I don't think they could hide it as radiation levels would be so severe that nobody would be able to get anywhere close to the area. If, for some reason, they were not able to keep the rods cool for an extended period of time (I think a few days) then it would be possible for the reaction to begin. If that were to happen, a fire would burn releasing radiation so intense that even helicopters dumping water from the air would be impossible.

It is certainly a major issue and will continue to be for many decades to come. As a side note, there is a typhoon heading up the coast of Japan at the moment and will affect Fukishima. Just a matter of days before we find out if their hundreds of hastily constructed water storage tanks can handle 200 km/h winds.

reply to post by fenceSitter

The 'China Syndrome' (movie) is far from accurate - if you are referring to nuclear material being able to melt its way all the way through the crust and out the outside of the Earth that is. In reality it could only melt through several meters of concrete/soil before it cools enough to stop - in a worse case scenario.

The China Syndrome refers to a scenario in which a molten nuclear reactor core could could fission its way through its containment vessel, melt through the basement of the power plant and down into the earth. While a molten reactor core wouldn’t burn “all the way through to China” it could enter the soil and water table and cause huge contamination in the crops and drinking water around the power plant. It’s a nightmare scenario,the stuff of movies. And it might just have happened at Fukushima. Read more: science.time.com...

I dont know the specific effects of this but i have heard theories thatthe molten blobs of nucleur waste have made there way to the pacific already and others that suggest if these blobs do hit the ocean/ water table this will cause an explosion ( seperation of hydrogen ) . But i am the same as you in that i am no nuclear physicist

I don't think this would anywhere close to an ELE. Worst case scenario would be a large portion of Japan would be uninhabitable for hundreds of years. Radiation of ocean water could potentially (or is) affecting seafood that would cause worldwide food shortages but nothing that would cause an ELE. As for timetable for removal of the rods, I'm thinking decades is a realistic assessment.

Even the tiniest mistake during an operation to extract over 1,300 fuel rods at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan could lead to a series of cascading failures with an apocalyptic outcome, fallout researcher Christina Consolo told RT. Fukushima operator TEPCO wants to extract 400 tons worth of spent fuel rods stored in a pool at the plant’s damaged Reactor No. 4. The removal would have to be done manually from the top store of the damaged building in the radiation-contaminated environment.

. IF THIS GOES WRONG IT COULD BE AN ELE..

Te It is certainly a major issue and will continue to be for many decades to come. As a side note, there is a typhoon heading up the coast of Japan at the moment and will affect Fukishima. Just a matter of days before we find out if their hundreds of hastily constructed water storage tanks can handle 200 km/h winds. xt

I think this has passed without incident... thank god www.bbc.co.uk...

reply to post by larapa


The biggest issue is the fact that TEPCO has tried to whitewash the whole thing and has now asked for help when the situation is beyond saving. I remember reading and commenting on these forums just after the explosions and the need for the world to get involved. Looks like good old fashioned Japanese stubbornness has screwed a large portion of the world and the oceans. Makes me sick, and I disagree with other posters I feel their water table is in jeopardy as the rods will sink down, maybe cool but the massive amounts of radiation will spread through the ground and into various aquafilters. It's just a matter of time..
The biggest shock is I have a friend living in Tokyo and warned him to leave and he and the rest of the population are treating it as a joke. Just watch the cancer rates in Japan over the next 5 years bet they at least quadruple

Each reactor has its own fuel, hence the three cores that went into meltdown. The Facility had one storage pond for fuel that was mutually shared between the cores.

The fuel is not hot enough to melt stone and earth, its certainly dense enough to make it through the liquified earth that japan is made from. (Liquified because of the copious amounts of water poured into the plant)

The fuel may be stable right now, but should they be unable to continue to cool it with sea water it will go into meltdown again.


I think i have a good grasp on the situation there. I been following since zero hour. Thats not to say that im an expert by any means. There is a lot of contradicting info out there.

I'm just reiterating what i have learned though the ordeal to the best of my knowledge.

It's quite simple. Anyone who speaks of an ELE in relation to Fukushima has absolutely no idea what they're talking about. They're agents of disinformation.

There isn't a chance in hell that Fuku could wipe out the species. There isn't a chance in hell that it can kill the oceans.

There will be increased incidences of cancer and leukemia. We've been cranking up the dial on cancer cases since the onset of the industrial revolution, best I can tell.

This is an issue for Japan, but it doesn't truly impact the world.

Try to get real figures from someone who says this is an ELE, and if they actually do respond, follow their leads. Find their sources. Notice the lies by omission, exaggerations, changing of goal-posts, appeal to emotion, false appearance of authority... look for these things. It's littered all throughout the "truth-seeking" regarding this event.

You want to think of a potential ELE, think of an x-class solar flare pointed right at Earth. That will wipe out most of the infrastructure, and cause, amongst many other things, 400 reactors to go into meltdown all at once globally. Then we're cooking!

Until then, puff, drink, and play. Enjoy your day!

reply to post by larapa


OP, I think your questions are best answered by generally saying I don't know and no one else does, either.

They THINK they know where the molten slag piles are ..but not sure, the last I read TEPCO material.

They THINK it's still contained, at least on a vertical axis..but again..not sure.

As for the rest? Well, here is a starting place:

Efforts for Decommissioning of Unit 1 to 4 Reactors

The report dates last month and may answer your questions to a fair degree. TEPCO, in my personal experience of following this closely since the start, doens't lie. They never technically have. What they do is 'lie by omission'..and sometimes obscenely blatant omissions. They don't fabricate, they...fudge a little...and a lot.

^^ That's important to keep in mind because what you see in a report like I link above is likely entirely accurate ...as far as it goes. Just recall that there is likely a 'rest of the story...' and very good reasons, to their thinking, we aren't getting it on something. Hope that helps!

webedoomed
It's quite simple. Anyone who speaks of an ELE in relation to Fukushima has absolutely no idea what they're talking about. They're agents of disinformation.

There isn't a chance in hell that Fuku could wipe out the species. There isn't a chance in hell that it can kill the oceans.

There will be increased incidences of cancer and leukemia. We've been cranking up the dial on cancer cases since the onset of the industrial revolution, best I can tell.

This is an issue for Japan, but it doesn't truly impact the world.

Try to get real figures from someone who says this is an ELE, and if they actually do respond, follow their leads. Find their sources. Notice the lies by omission, exaggerations, changing of goal-posts, appeal to emotion, false appearance of authority... look for these things. It's littered all throughout the "truth-seeking" regarding this event.

You want to think of a potential ELE, think of an x-class solar flare pointed right at Earth. That will wipe out most of the infrastructure, and cause, amongst many other things, 400 reactors to go into meltdown all at once globally. Then we're cooking!

Until then, puff, drink, and play. Enjoy your day!

I agree that its not an ELE by any means. But saying that radiation cant kill the ocean life is astoundingly ignorant.

Radiation mutates DNA and certainly kills.

reply to post by shaneslaughta


Then maybe you should be more honest and admit that I didn't say that! You're presenting a straw-man.

I said there isn't a chance it could kill the oceans.

100% truth.

There is many sextillions of gallons of water in the worlds oceans, and already more radiation flowing through it than is on site at fuku. Pouring it's entire radiocative contents into the ocean wouldn't even be a drop in the bucket.

Local loss of marine life? Sure. Killing the world's oceans? Not a chance in hell.

reply to post by webedoomed


If your post is related to the current situation being manageable and the removal of the rods being a simple operation ( i dont know this to be correct or incorrect ) then ok its not an ELE

However

Christina Consolo: Although fuel rod removal happens on a daily basis at the 430+ nuclear sites around the world, it is a very delicate procedure even under the best of circumstances. What makes fuel removal at Fukushima so dangerous and complex is that it will be attempted on a fuel pool whose integrity has been severely compromised. However, it must be attempted as Reactor 4 has the most significant problems structurally, and this pool is on the top floor of the building. - The process of removing each rod will have to be repeated over 1,300 times without incident.

- Moving damaged nuclear fuel under such complex conditions could result in a criticality if the rods come into close proximity to one another, which would then set off a chain reaction that cannot be stopped.

What could potentially happen is the contents of the pool could burn and/or explode, and the entire structure sustain further damage or collapse. This chain reaction process could be self-sustaining and go on for a long time. This is the apocalyptic scenario in a nutshell.

rt.com...

So is it the case that a chain reaction of 1300 rods in meltdown equivelent to 15,000 hiroshima explosions is unlikely to happen? I am not doom porn/ fear mongering but asking for an explanation ..

Also could posters please try and answer the questions rather than a brief summery of the situation , i am trying to ascertain the gravity or lack there of, the stuation.

reply to post by larapa


Considering the fact that the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was measured in kilotons, not megtons, it's absolutely laughable to think that 15,000 times the Hiroshima bomb could be on the scale of an ELE.

You do realize we've dropped plenty of megaton bombs in the air, on the ground, and in the ocean over the decades, correct?

I'm stunned how ignorant people are regarding this issue.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I understand that the fact is maybe that no one knows, thanks for the link however it seems to be broken ...

I was hoping for a layman terms blow by blow of the situation: reactor 1 stable, impacton surrounding environment minimal etc

However it may just be a simple case of acomplicatedsituation with limited information released to ascertain basic theories on what is happening ( and potentially large amounts of hersay/disinformation)...

reply to post by webedoomed


Your right, you did say the oceans specifically. It may not kill the oceans but it can kill some species in the oceans.
I replied and didn't fully grasp your pov.

I still must present the argument that contaminated ocean critters can travel thousands of miles and contaminate people that eat them....though they are not anywhere near japan. It is a global problem.

reply to post by shaneslaughta


Agreed. Which is the reason I no longer eat seafood, and I'm cajun!! ... well actually I stopped after the BP incident, but was sure of my decision after FUKU.

There are some hot particles which can travel all the way to the US, and yes some of the seafood we eat may be contaminated from Fuku, but on the whole this is a local, and regional event. It's global effects would be considered negligible by most experts.

Fukushima Roadmap (Tepco)

reply to post by webedoomed


True. But these so called experts are the ones that have been leaving out some important truths from the story.

It makes me wonder if this is a grand science experiment.

reply to post by webedoomed


Ok helpfull ... so your response to disproving potential disinformation is to provide opinion without fact ( basically nonsense) i have given you a link to a MSM website that has published this information, they may be wrong and infamous for disinformation, however your comments have proved unhelpfull in thebattle against ignorence ;

- How many simultaneous nucleur explosions does it take to cause a nucleur winter?

"The computer-modeling study showed a nuclear war between the two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices [which are relatively small] on each side would cause massive urban fires and loft as much as 5 million metric tons of soot about 50 miles into the stratosphere [...]. The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, setting in motion a series of chemical reactions that would break down the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation." The study is titled "Massive Global Ozone Loss Predicted Following A Regional Nuclear Conflict" and it was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (April 7th issue):

So above is a peer reviewed published study that suggests 50 hiroshimas could cause a significant problem to the world , granted this envolves the burning of cities, but atleast i am adding some usefull peer reviewed information to this discussion. FYI we were talking about 15,000 simultaneous hiroshimas ...

15,000 hiroshimas= 187.5 megaton bomb or 4 tsar bombs ( 2 tsar bombs are expected to crack the earth like an egg :roll
(0.0125*15000)

reply to post by larapa


They say its just a matter of time before we get a direct hit by an x class flair that could knock out the grid.

Thats a lot of dirty bombs just ticking away.