NFL Rigged or do they have Biff's Sports Almanac????

reply to post by six67seven


You have to think about this in a less myopic fashion and widen your scope... we just finished week 6. 11 more to go, meaning he has picked 30 of the 85 games he will handicap this season, not including playoffs. Obviously there are fluctuations both in season and over the course of a number of seasons but the numbers don't lie, there is such an overwhelming sample size that says over the long term he will regress or improve to around 58% if he's a world class handicapper and a few points lower if he's merely good. Seems 51% and 59% the previous 2 years gives some credence to this no?

Do you really think going 70% one year and hitting 27% about 1/3 of the way through the next is evidence of a conspiracy? Its not hocus pocus, its mathematics. Extend the timeline and it is a near mathematical certainty based on millions of data points (bets) analyzed over the years that he will average somewhere between 52% and 60% long haul since this is the mathematical average of the rate handicappers of any skill level who do more than pick games out of a hat can expect to hit in the long term. Everyone gets hot, everyone gets cold but water finds its level.

If I say the (I'll give a random example, whatever pops into my head) average number of strawberries picked by a migrant worker is about 1,000 per day, that worker doesn't have to pick 1,000 per day to make me correct do they? What if for 3 days they pick 1,500, for 3 days they pick 750, and for 1 day they pick none. They are picking just over 964 strawberries per day, which is close to the given average correct? The
variance in number of strawberries picked daily varies wildly but in the end the number balances out to the average which is something we all should have learned in the most basic middle school math class.

That's exactly what's happening here, no tinfoil hat needed.

reply to post by Kgdetroit


lmao

Believe me, I completely grasp the law of averages. Just participating in the conversation with levity, hence, the "lmao's"

Enjoy your day

reply to post by six67seven


Levity is sometimes lost in text and confused with another attitude entirely

I've had my fair share of dealings with ignoramuses who couldn't grasp such logic if it was beating them over the head so I apologize for the gravitas of my previous post if it came off in a way that was offensive.

Hope you have a great day as well.

reply to post by NONPOINT21


So can you only make money if the team you bet on wins, and they were not the favorite according to vegas?

Or can you make money if the team you bet on wins, and they were the favorite?

reply to post by Kgdetroit


No worries but a couple of notes for future reference:
1. If you have to use three paragraphs to explain any subject taught in middle school to someone on the internet, it's not worth your time. Just send them to google. Lol
2. Half of my posts on ATS involve or are completely comedic.
3. You're right, translation is often lost over the web.
4. Sometimes it's best to ignore people. Yes, even me. I promise it won't hurt my feelings (not that anyone should care)

See you around!

six67seven
reply to post by NONPOINT21

 

Hey NON, I just thought of something that could possibly tie into your conspiracy. First, if you sportsbettors/fans pay attention, you'll see that the analysts and pregame shows don't talk about the gambling aspect of sports. The spreads are mentioned a bit here and there on shows like the Herd and SVP & Russillo, but for such a HUGE part of the NFL, gambling is still a behind-the-scenes atmosphere for the most part. It's like an "unwritten rule" per se.

So if you didn't know, Colin Cowherd had an unbelievable NFL season with his ATS picks. He went 49-21 last season ATS, not FTW. Thats almost unreal to win week to week like that. Colin's 2012 season

It is possible, given his audience and reach, that after last season he, 1) given your theory has some validity and the outcomes to a certain extent are known, 2) the NFL is strictly entertainment thus the wins/losses are "governed" and 3) money is involved (most important part), that Vegas obviously understood the public/Cowherd's audience would follow Cowherd's picks for 2013. It is possible that "the wiseguys", knowing the game results, gave Cowherd a chunk of change to give wrong picks. Not so? Let's look at Cowherd's NFL record so far this season: 8-21 !!! Blazing 5

Yeah yeah yeah, they talk about "parody" in the NFL and sports in general. Maybe they do so to keep the truth in the background (like every other corruption). The truth being, the game is rigged??

Again, it's not illegal if its purely entertainment. If nothing else, there are definitely different levels of conspiracy to consider. After all, we don't "KNOW" anything. And perhaps we only "KNOW" what they want us to.

Keep your tinfoil hats close everyone!!

excellent assessment!!!! i totally think that's plausible.

reply to post by ImaFungi


What i'm saying is anytime the 75% of the public is on a certain line be it getting pts or giving pts. 80% of the time that team doesn't cover and the public loses big and vegas wins big.

Last week 85% of the public was on the Philly Dallas over of 56.5...why is the question, because of the no huddle eagles and the 48 pt performance still in your head vs Denver. Even the slightest research will show that Dallas is 1-8 on overs on the rd in their last 9 games, now 1-9.

I took the under and hit it big. All you need is discipline. I bet two games last week Seattle once the line dropped from 7.5 to 4.5 meaning the public was huge on Arizona and the pts and then I went against public on the under on philly game and went 2 for 2.

coincidence??? I think not. Vegas keeps hitting big when they make lines that entice suckers.

reply to post by NONPOINT21


Yes I dont know anything about the betting point systems or lines, or if you bet on the team you think will win or lose. The thing is noone is forcing 85% of the betters to bet, it is completely their choice. So their must be some statistical method to the madness of the point stuff. They cant have denver not favored to win, and then owe billions of dollars to the population who picked the obvious choice. The odd system and point system seems like the only defense they have against being a charity for common sensed individuals, so they have the points and odds and say here are the rules, play at your own risk.

Still I lack understanding. Can you make money on betting for the favorite to win, or the point thing is, only if they exceed a certain threshold of point difference? Thats what the denver 28 point spread was about, if you bet on denver they had to win by 28 points for a better to get any money?