NFL Rigged or do they have Biff's Sports Almanac????

OK, it's no surprise that Vegas wins almost every single week betting football. Every now and then you hear of a 100 million swing to the bettors IE me and you like in the OSU game two weeks ago. But when it does happen it is front page news, you never hear about Vegas winning quietly each week which is normally the case.

OK quick refresher for how betting really works. The idea is for Vegas to get as close to even money on the games as possible to guarantee that they win every week by collecting the juice, usually standard 10%. Example, i would have to bet $110 to win $100. If you have 1 million on each side vegas wins 100k just for holding the money.

This is just my opinion and given the nature of how money drives everything I believe that Vegas truly has an influence on NFL games, maybe subconsciously but something is happening. They are just too good at the lines every week for so many years.

That is why I made the joke of maybe they have Biff's sports almanac from the future. Now I can already see this question, then what about the teams that get killed like for example Minnesota vs Carolina on sunday, line was MN -2.5 and Carolina won 35-10. Simple answer, it would be too obvious if they made the spread Car - 24. 95% of public would've taken MN and lost. Then they would be on to the scam. They put the line at -2.5 for that very reason. To induce both sides, knowing that other games actually will be much more profitable like the big name teams we love to bet, Saints, Packers, Falcons etc. not many people are like hey I love to bet Buffalo, Jax, and St. Louis every week. Its a science and psychology and they have us down pat and know who we like to bet and how to manipulate that to their favor.

Now the main problem with my argument is I cannot find the numbers anywhere online to back up my claims and opinions and if someone could find those and post them for each week this year that would be great so we can cross check them, but Chad Millman has a spot on a weekly show to where he says what % of the public is on a game. I've only seen the show a couple of times but so far he is spot on.

Week 3 GB vs. Bengals - spread GB -2.5...he says over 80% of the money is on GB to cover and the lose outright. Big win for Vegas
Week 3 SF vs. Indy - San Fran was a huge favorite, over 80-% of the money and they lost outright.

The other time I watched he said these teams on week 6 had heavy action on

Bengals -5.5 over 80% of public on after beating pats, they win by 3 in OT. Vegas Wins
Saints +2 over 80% of public on and lose outright
Houston -7.5 over 80% of public on them, the lose outright

Now so far this guy is spot on. Also lets look at last nights game between San Diego and Indy. The whole pregame show was about Indy and how they've won vs two of the best NFC teams in SF and SEA and everybody and their brother was talking about how good Luck is on how powerful the Indy 4th best pts in the league offense is.

So naturally the over looks good.... this is what they want you to think....I bet the under, then I looked online and saw that on ESPN the streak that 93.7 % of people were betting for Indy to win in a pickem game. So I took San Diego and also bet them. And guess what I won both bets. Anybody that plays ESPN the streak will definitely know what I'm talking about when we say the 80% rule. Most of the time even on this free app when the public is 80% on a game then that team loses 8 out of 10 times.

Hell, maybe apps like this were invented by Vegas so they can manipulate outcomes. It's no secret that Boxing, Baseball, Basketball pt shaving and Soccer most recently have all been busted for large scams of fixing games. The NFL has yet so why is that? IMO its rigged for the money. Vegas can't be that good.

In any case, now you have the tools if you are a NFL bettor to play the teams that are against the public because so far its been working for me.

John Madden "holding happens on every play"... this PROVES it. and many others have said the same thing,

After the Seahawks/Steelers Superbowl XL... I gave up my Fanatic Support.

That GAME WAS FIXED... every time a big play for Seattle, FLAG, called back, and then to see the Steelers Hold on a run play.. Time and again.

Or the Patriots/Raiders 2001 season playoff (the snow and kick)
game... FIXED.. the Partriots red/white/blue had to win,, SO the world would be inundated with Patriots gear.

Anyone with an acute eye can figure it out... And the NBA is just as bad

remember the 76'rs vs Lakers.. Iverson was being held, grabbed , fouled the whole series by Tyronne Lue..

FIXED... and how about the referees that ADMITTED to it?

I've always been curious as to how Vegas can be so close on games. In football I can get pretty close on spreads and over unders in nfl and college. When you look at football scores you are looking at scores that are usually multiples of seven and three. So I kinda can guess if a team is gonna win by 3,7,10 etc.

What blows my mind is how close Vegas can be on basketball. I've made plenty of bets on basketball where within seconds of the game being over I'm not sure if I'm going to win my bet.

reply to post by NONPOINT21


The solution is simple .. don't bet

I went to Atlantic city once when I was 22. I lost $100 in about 20 minutes at the craps table. I got really pissed and left. Went to some nearby bar and got drunk. I then felt much better.

I've never gambled after that, although I probably went to too many bars.

reply to post by NONPOINT21


Oh, and I was NEVER a Seahawk fan.. I liked the Broncos and the Bears.

bleacherreport.com...

The rosters have changed, but the memories fuel the intensity of the affair. Pittsburgh passion tells a tale of tough but correct and fair calls against an opponent that came up short in the clutch. Seattle skepticism speaks to the terrible officiating of Bill Leavy, whose timely and controversial (if not altogether wrong) decisions turned the game in the Steelers' favor.

This game was the MOST blatant and obvious of all the games I have ever seen, and have NOT watched football (more than 10 minutes), paid for ANY NFL gear, and no longer buy the Sunday Ticket..

That's why you should 'go against the public'

...as hard as that is to do sometimes. But that way, you'll be betting with Vegas & Charlie Sheening ... er ... Winning!

RammerJammer
I've always been curious as to how Vegas can be so close on games. In football I can get pretty close on spreads and over unders in nfl and college. When you look at football scores you are looking at scores that are usually multiples of seven and three. So I kinda can guess if a team is gonna win by 3,7,10 etc.

What blows my mind is how close Vegas can be on basketball. I've made plenty of bets on basketball where within seconds of the game being over I'm not sure if I'm going to win my bet.

all it takes in One player, or One referee to make 3-4 bad foul calls..

Game Over.
In the NFL... All that is needed is One PLAY to be called back.. Or Holding call not called.


Now that the economy is so rough.. Money is tighter and fought for HARDER.. therefore the gambling money is VERY vital for some.

I watched part of this a few years ago.. When former players admit it.. hmm?

OR how it WAS DESIGNED as a betting game?

OMG, this part in the beginning states that NFL is classified under "entertainment" and not SPORT
0:56.. mark.. Just like WWE (WWF wrestling)

reply to post by ThreeNF


I totally disagree. Craps is the one thing if a person knows what they are doing can predict the outcome. I can play hours at the table without winning or losing by a small margin. But I do play the dark side tho.

reply to post by RammerJammer


You'll have to teach me then

I do not think they pull refs into a back room and tell them to call a game this way or that way. Some one along the way would have spilled the beans. The NFL is worth billions and not worth risking over the outcome of 1 game.
The way they could do it is they have every penalty or foul or strike an offical has ever called in the computer. They know the refs tendencies, he calls against this team or calls heavy for the home team etc. They put the crew with the tendencies they want at the game they want, to give them the best chance for the outcome they are looking for.
A question I would love to know is who assigns which crew to which game? Those are the guys that need to be interviewed.

I do agree that there was no way the Pats could have won the Super Bowl after 9/11 but sure enough between regular cries of "god bless the firemen", they squeaked it out somehow. It just wouldn't have looked right if the "Patriots" would have lost. But the logistics involved, how can they rig it and not get caught. Someone would snitch.

Fixing games isn't endemic in sports; sure there's the Tim Donaghys and Chicago Black Sox and college athletes paid a couple thousand to miss a few three pointers here and there to make sure they don't cover but those instances (at least on a scale we're talking about) are the exception and not the rule.

Think about it, Vegas is using hundreds of millions of dollars to invest in some of the smartest minds coming out of MIT and the like. They use the best analytical and predictive software technology can buy and combine it with psychological predictors proven over a nearly anomaly proof timeline and years and years of experience handling a volume of action we can't even fathom, every minute of every day. They nail the spread because they have a system to produce them that is consistently proven. Its their job and they're damn good at it because they have the advantage of a detachment from emotion and see more bets in 24 hours than even professional gamblers will place in their lifetime.

Compare that to the average sports bettor who lacks the discipline (bankroll management) and ability to disengage emotionally (getting moosed and chasing) to consistently have success and is it any wonder the house usually wins? Come on, this is their job. Joe Public is spending his lunch break or crapper time looking over spreads and trying to find some superficial angle then places his bet and gets on with his life. Trust me, I've lost enough to know how it works

Vegas doesn't cheat because they don't have to. There are too many sports gamblers who don't know what the hell they're doing and too few that do; its like bringing a knife to a nuclear arms fight.

The odds makers are paid a lot of money for what they do. They are very good at it, and they get paid a very good salary to keep them honest.

Kgdetroit
Fixing games isn't endemic in sports; sure there's the Tim Donaghys and Chicago Black Sox and college athletes paid a couple thousand to miss a few three pointers here and there to make sure they don't cover but those instances (at least on a scale we're talking about) are the exception and not the rule.

Think about it, Vegas is using hundreds of millions of dollars to invest in some of the smartest minds coming out of MIT and the like. They use the best analytical and predictive software technology can buy and combine it with psychological predictors proven over a nearly anomaly proof timeline and years and years of experience handling a volume of action we can't even fathom, every minute of every day. They nail the spread because they have a system to produce them that is consistently proven. Its their job and they're damn good at it because they have the advantage of a detachment from emotion and see more bets in 24 hours than even professional gamblers will place in their lifetime.

Compare that to the average sports bettor who lacks the discipline (bankroll management) and ability to disengage emotionally (getting moosed and chasing) to consistently have success and is it any wonder the house usually wins? Come on, this is their job. Joe Public is spending his lunch break or crapper time looking over spreads and trying to find some superficial angle then places his bet and gets on with his life. Trust me, I've lost enough to know how it works

Vegas doesn't cheat because they don't have to. There are too many sports gamblers who don't know what the hell they're doing and too few that do; its like bringing a knife to a nuclear arms fight.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I still think anytime money is involved, refs, players, coaches ,media all can be bought. Vegas does make money because of the things you mentioned above, but I ultimately believe that certain games are fixed to make sure the money lands in the hands of Vegas and the NFL.

Off topic but quick story about a college basketball game last year. Butler was up 13 with 4 mins to go and had 4 traveling 2 passes out of bounds and 1 double dribble call to end the game. This also let the other team cover the spread, now I have played basketball for 25 years was all conference in High School, played AAU and played in College and I can tell you any Division 1 team and players have 0 chance of committing all those turnovers on back to back possessions. On the possessions they didn't turn over they were fouled and went 1-7 on foul line. They won the game but didn't cover.

reply to post by HanzHenry


Let's look at this week's lines and examine, why are terrible teams still big favorites?

Falcons are 1-4 and dessimated by injuries, Roddy White isn't 100%, no running game, Julio Jones out for season and 5 starters on Defense are out yet they open as a 7.5 favorite vs Tampa Bay on Sunday. Now I know Tampa is 0-5 but it's a divisional game and those tend to be 3-7 pt games.

Green Bay just lost 2 starting receivers to injury and still no Clay Matthews yet they open at -11 vs Cleveland who is playing way better than given credit. They have one of the best corners in Joe Haden who will now guard Jordy Nelson and the depleted weapons for Rogers. Another popular big market team with a huge opening line.

We'll have to wait to see how the public bets but looking at these lines I would say the underdog will have heavy action. Then the favorites dominate with depleted squads. Vegas wants you to bet the underdogs with these opening lines....why is the question that will be answered on Sunday.

reply to post by NONPOINT21


Hey NON, I just thought of something that could possibly tie into your conspiracy. First, if you sportsbettors/fans pay attention, you'll see that the analysts and pregame shows don't talk about the gambling aspect of sports. The spreads are mentioned a bit here and there on shows like the Herd and SVP & Russillo, but for such a HUGE part of the NFL, gambling is still a behind-the-scenes atmosphere for the most part. It's like an "unwritten rule" per se.

So if you didn't know, Colin Cowherd had an unbelievable NFL season with his ATS picks. He went 49-21 last season ATS, not FTW. Thats almost unreal to win week to week like that. Colin's 2012 season

It is possible, given his audience and reach, that after last season he, 1) given your theory has some validity and the outcomes to a certain extent are known, 2) the NFL is strictly entertainment thus the wins/losses are "governed" and 3) money is involved (most important part), that Vegas obviously understood the public/Cowherd's audience would follow Cowherd's picks for 2013. It is possible that "the wiseguys", knowing the game results, gave Cowherd a chunk of change to give wrong picks. Not so? Let's look at Cowherd's NFL record so far this season: 8-21 !!! Blazing 5

Yeah yeah yeah, they talk about "parody" in the NFL and sports in general. Maybe they do so to keep the truth in the background (like every other corruption). The truth being, the game is rigged??

Again, it's not illegal if its purely entertainment. If nothing else, there are definitely different levels of conspiracy to consider. After all, we don't "KNOW" anything. And perhaps we only "KNOW" what they want us to.

Keep your tinfoil hats close everyone!!

reply to post by NONPOINT21


I hear ya, I've certainly seen enough fluky things happen in my time to KNOW something is fishy. NEVER bet on UNLV at home or Hawaii on a Friday night on the road in NCAA football! Lol.

Our difference in opinion is the depth of game fixing; I tend to believe it happens more on the small time level i.e back alley payoffs to college athletes or a ref throwing down a couple thousand on a game he's calling and making sure he covers. You think its a bigger issue with Vegas casinos and leagues involved.

You might be right, who knows. I don't see the honey being worth the sting though, the NFL is a multi-billion dollar league . They make enough in selling their broadcasting rights to turn a VERY healthy profit and keep every owner, player, and exec. satiated before the first game of the season even kicks off. Same with the NCAA, their TV contracts for the FBS alone total over 10 billion in long term contracts! I know greed usually trumps all, but if they're gonna risk ruining such a good thing by alienating every single fan with then I can't help but think they're touched in the head; it would be completely illogical.

As for Vegas, they take their lumps on certain games knowing the longer term projections ALWAYS end up with them on top. For them its not gambling, its collecting. The only variance is when the money ends up in their pocket. They aren't myopic in their thinking, they look to turn a long term profit and the odds of this are 100% as proven year after year. Add to this the tiny percentage of their profit pie that comes from the books (they get mega dough from slots and table games, sports books account for a very small percentage of their profits) and its totally illogical for them to take such a risk when the reward really isn't there (comparatively speaking of course.)

As I said, who really knows. Good topic though, as you can see from my long winded replies its right up my alley of interest.

reply to post by six67seven


Colin was on fire last year and I made a good chunk of dough following his picks after I jumped on that gravy train. Simple answer to the disparity between last year and this is a correction to the mean. As a rule the best sports bettors (i.e. Billy Walters, who has made millions on sports gambling) hit at about 58%. So if Colin is hitting at a ridiculous rate for x period of time simple math says he's gonna screw the pooch for y period of time and its gonna balance out to the average. At best and assuming Colin is the best sports bettor that has ever walked the earth that'll be around 60% or just keeping his head above the juice.

reply to post by Kgdetroit


Given his last three years winning % ATS were as follows:
2010 - 51%
2011 - 59%
2012 - 70%

... that's quite the regression.
2013 - 27.6% and counting... lmao