posted on Oct, 15 2013 @ 07:55 AM
OK, it's no surprise that Vegas wins almost every single week betting football. Every now and then you hear of a 100 million swing to the bettors IE
me and you like in the OSU game two weeks ago. But when it does happen it is front page news, you never hear about Vegas winning quietly each week
which is normally the case.
OK quick refresher for how betting really works. The idea is for Vegas to get as close to even money on the games as possible to guarantee that they
win every week by collecting the juice, usually standard 10%. Example, i would have to bet $110 to win $100. If you have 1 million on each side
vegas wins 100k just for holding the money.
This is just my opinion and given the nature of how money drives everything I believe that Vegas truly has an influence on NFL games, maybe
subconsciously but something is happening. They are just too good at the lines every week for so many years.
That is why I made the joke of maybe they have Biff's sports almanac from the future. Now I can already see this question, then what about the teams
that get killed like for example Minnesota vs Carolina on sunday, line was MN -2.5 and Carolina won 35-10. Simple answer, it would be too obvious if
they made the spread Car - 24. 95% of public would've taken MN and lost. Then they would be on to the scam. They put the line at -2.5 for that
very reason. To induce both sides, knowing that other games actually will be much more profitable like the big name teams we love to bet, Saints,
Packers, Falcons etc. not many people are like hey I love to bet Buffalo, Jax, and St. Louis every week. Its a science and psychology and they have
us down pat and know who we like to bet and how to manipulate that to their favor.
Now the main problem with my argument is I cannot find the numbers anywhere online to back up my claims and opinions and if someone could find those
and post them for each week this year that would be great so we can cross check them, but Chad Millman has a spot on a weekly show to where he says
what % of the public is on a game. I've only seen the show a couple of times but so far he is spot on.
Week 3 GB vs. Bengals - spread GB -2.5...he says over 80% of the money is on GB to cover and the lose outright. Big win for Vegas
Week 3 SF vs. Indy - San Fran was a huge favorite, over 80-% of the money and they lost outright.
The other time I watched he said these teams on week 6 had heavy action on
Bengals -5.5 over 80% of public on after beating pats, they win by 3 in OT. Vegas Wins
Saints +2 over 80% of public on and lose outright
Houston -7.5 over 80% of public on them, the lose outright
Now so far this guy is spot on. Also lets look at last nights game between San Diego and Indy. The whole pregame show was about Indy and how they've
won vs two of the best NFC teams in SF and SEA and everybody and their brother was talking about how good Luck is on how powerful the Indy 4th best
pts in the league offense is.
So naturally the over looks good.... this is what they want you to think....I bet the under, then I looked online and saw that on ESPN the streak that
93.7 % of people were betting for Indy to win in a pickem game. So I took San Diego and also bet them. And guess what I won both bets. Anybody that
plays ESPN the streak will definitely know what I'm talking about when we say the 80% rule. Most of the time even on this free app when the public
is 80% on a game then that team loses 8 out of 10 times.
Hell, maybe apps like this were invented by Vegas so they can manipulate outcomes. It's no secret that Boxing, Baseball, Basketball pt shaving and
Soccer most recently have all been busted for large scams of fixing games. The NFL has yet so why is that? IMO its rigged for the money. Vegas
can't be that good.
In any case, now you have the tools if you are a NFL bettor to play the teams that are against the public because so far its been working for me.