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Some more climate change stuff; old records broken in some cases...

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posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:01 PM

PIERRE, S.D. (AP) — A record-breaking storm that dumped 4 feet of snow in parts of western South Dakota left ranchers dealing with heavy losses, in some cases perhaps up to half their herds, as they assess how many of their cattle died during the unseasonably early blizzard.

n South Dakota, the 19 inches of snow that fell in Rapid City on Friday broke the city's 94-year-old one-day snowfall record for October by about 9 inches, according to the National Weather Service. The city also set a record for snowfall in October, with a total of 23.1 inches during the storm. The previous record was 15.1 inches in October 1919.

n the north-central U.S., residents of Wyoming and South Dakota were digging out Saturday from a ferocious, record-setting blizzard, one in which snow was measured in feet, not inches. One location - Deadwood, S.D. - had picked up 4 feet of snow as of midday Saturday.

In Rapid City, S.D., the storm's total snowfall of 23.1 inches was the city's second-biggest snowstorm on record. At least 80 people in the Rapid City area had been trapped overnight in their cars Grain harvest in Norway at 37-year low
Using a translator:

acreage of cereals in the last ten years decreased by about 40 000 hectares a year. Because of the difficult spring is counted with an additional reduction in grain area being thrashed year. On the basis of assessments of Norwegian Agricultural Counseling and seed turnover is area reduction set to 80 000 hectares this year. New acreage figures from the Norwegian Agricultural Authority does not allow to change this forecast. The Norwegian grain area has not been lower since 1973, ie before the escalation decision in 1975.

Climate pattern similar to the Maunder Minimum? “Grain and Crises, Why Norway should start storing grain”.

“The official view in Norway is in contrast to what the people experience because of cooling weather: Late spring gives flooding and avalanches when late snow-melting in the mountains. Water pipes freeze because of early and deep frost in the winter. Insect populations down 40% in 5 years because of cool and wet summers. This of cause is bad for pollination of fruit and berries.” all the numbers of the snow blanket from last week

“That’s the result that they get when you premeditate your science,” said Dr. Tim Ball, former professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg. “When you set out to establish a certain scientific outcome and you program your computers to do that, you shouldn’t be surprised if that’s the result you get. The problem is what they’re getting out of their computers is not fitting with what’s actually happening. Of course, that’s been the problem with the IPCC all along.”

“We’re heading toward what occurred around the year 1800. It was called the Dalton Minimum of low sunspot activities,” he explained. “We certainly are down to that in number of sunspots this year. That means the cooling will continue at least until 2030 and yet the government is preparing for warming, which is outrageous. Some people think that this cycle of sunspot activity and global cooling will take us down to as cold as it was around 1680, which was the nadir of the Little Ice Age.”

Which brings me to my question.?.. Let us ask a question, just for the sake of a future, where we are indeed going into another mini/big/giant ( ?) Ice age..

If people and countries cannot grow food because the land where they live is frozen, what is the world going to do and who will they (?) blame to get your money? This is a serious question. If the Earth warms even 5c we as a species will adapt and survive because food plants will still grow... If the climate cools by the same 5c (unless greenhouse farming can feed the multitudes) we will have an extinction event caused by food shortages like many times before in Earth's history. All one has to do is look at different societies that packed up and moved or died out due to some extended climate change in their domicile. Packing an moving with the geopolitical boundaries of today would be very problematic if not impossible; a few yes, but for multitudes, no.
There are plenty of weather guesses or computer programs which do not reflect observations yet are claimed to be correct. There are weather guessers on both sides of the climate change debate but IMO we are along for the ride..

I always think of Galileo and others who were right but bucked a system that ignored the latest findings because of some agenda..... Many of our past truth seekers were not in it for the money or a job but were after the truth; they let the cards fall based on observations made by new inventions or real time observations without the help of programed computers that started with a very limited data set and mostly ignored the past influence of the sun.

Climate Change the agenda (if there is one) is a much better catch-all scenario than Global warming because it encompasses everything and anything. To hot=climate change to cold=climate change. IMO we better hope the weather guessers and esteemed climatologist and pushers of a warming climate are partially correct for if we are entering into a new Dalton or Maunder Minimum due to our great light bulb in the sky called the sun we are in for a tough time as a species...

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:07 PM
reply to post by 727Sky

I don't see any record low temperatures on that list. High levels of precipitation (including snowfall) are a result of warming. To simplify it: warmer temperatures means more evaporation means more water vapor means more precipitation. Colder temperatures means less evaporation....and so on.

We've seen more record high temperatures (summer of 2012 was the hottest recorded in the US) and fewer record low temperatures set. That's a pretty good indication that things aren't getting colder.

edit on 10/8/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:12 PM
Unless..the Sun is heading for a hibernation mode now.
A Maunder minimum might be what's ahead unless we get some
consistent flaring . This is Solar Max and I haven't heard hide nor hair
of the double peak that will prove the Sun isnt going quiet.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:24 PM
reply to post by Phage

Hi ..In the place where I live NE we used to get more snow than we do now .If what you are saying about warmer means more precipitation then how is it that we are getting less ? Could it be because as climate changes it may move weather patterns to other places ? How come there is a absence of hurricanes making landfall ? It seems that our environment has changed back and forth even in the short time that we have been recording it on the continent .We barely have 200 hundred years of data and that is even sparse at best .

It's all weather and weather changes .

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:25 PM
Phage how about taking a crack at the Maunder Minimum I havent seen your opinion on that. I mean it has to at least be considered.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 12:31 PM
reply to post by Phage

I don't see any record low temperatures on that list...That's a pretty good indication that things aren't getting colder.

The winter of 2012/2013 (December to February) as well as March 2013 were too cold in large parts of the northern half of Asia in comparison to the reference period 1961-1990. In December 2012, monthly temperature anomalies up to about -11 °C were recorded in the southwest of Siberia and in Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, daily minimum temperatures reached -40 to -46 °C


China - Coldest Winter in Decades

The Early 2012 European cold wave was a deadly cold wave that started on January 27, 2012 and brought snow and freezing temperatures to much of the European continent. There were 824+ deaths reported. Particularly low temperatures hit several Eastern and Northern European countries, reaching as low as −39.2 °C (−38.6 °F) in Finland.

Early 2012 Cold Wave

UK - Coldest Spring for 50 years

But we know it's just Weather.

Get Ready for a Cold Winter

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:02 PM

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:11 PM
reply to post by Phage

I usually have a hard time disagreeing with you, but to over simplify the precipitation as you did seems a bit wrong.

I know in my state, we had a rainfall deficit for several years. This year is the first year we have a little surplus. Which would go along with what you are saying.

The graph shows that historically this is very normal. Like lots of things. Some warm, some cold, always changing.

Then we look at the central US:

While NC is enjoying some good rainfall totals, the majority of the Midwest is severely lacking in rainfall. Based on your theory, they should be enjoying the same affects of global warming bringing more precipitation due to more evaporation.

I am just not seeing it.

edit to add sources:
sourc e

edit on 8-10-2013 by network dude because: added sources.

edit on 8-10-2013 by network dude because: (no reason given)

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:19 PM

The latest data is not encouraging for Solar Cycle 24 as the SSN numbers have taken a pretty big hit. In fact, all the solar metrics have taken a hit at a time near the peak when their should be many more sunspots and indications of an active solar dynamo.

And the Ap Index, an indicator of solar magnetic activity is still bumping along the bottom. Compare it to the peaks seen in Solar Cycle 23 in 2004:

Some argue that without anthropogenic greenhouse gasses the world would have cooled in the past few decades. That might be the case, but the statement that it is warmer now than it has been for thousands of years is untrue. The rate of warming seen recently is also not unprecedented.

The title of the paper is, “The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability,” by B Christiansen of the Danish Meteorological Institute and F C Ljungqvist of Stockholm University.

The authors point out the major problem with reconstructing the climate of the past few thousand years is that the so-called instrumental period – for which we have direct measurements – only stretches back as far as the middle of the 19th century. To overcome this researchers in this paper compile an impressive number of temperature proxies situated in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. There are 91 in total, comprising ice-cores, tree-rings (density and width), lake and sea sediments, historical records, speleotherms, and pollen. All of them go back to 1500 AD and 32 go back as far as 1 AD.

“The level of warmth during the peak of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) in the second half of the 10th century, equaling or slightly exceeding the mid-20th century warming, is in agreement with the results from other more recent large-scale multi-proxy temperature reconstructions.”
The paper is not paywalled and be read in its entirety

So if the temperatures were as warm only 1000 years ago what could have been the cause? I am certainly not saying the sun is the only factor (gotta play a pretty big part though IMO) Volcanos and their emissions can have a dramatic influence; again as proved by past eruptions.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:27 PM
reply to post by talklikeapirat

I don't see any all time high temperature records there.
There have been more all time high records set since 1960 (73) than all time low temperature records (41).
There have been 48 high temperature records set in the past 10 years compared to 5 low temperature records.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:28 PM
Sure... record breaking snowfalls in the first week of October means it's getting warmer. Where do I sign up for Al Gore's carbon tax!

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:32 PM
reply to post by network dude

I usually have a hard time disagreeing with you, but to over simplify the precipitation as you did seems a bit wrong.
I did say it was a simplification but it isn't wrong.

Based on your theory, they should be enjoying the same affects of global warming bringing more precipitation due to more evaporation.
It's a general statement. You know that weather is not the same as climate.

To say that high snowfall levels indicates a cooling trend is a fallacy.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 01:50 PM
Here is a thread I made a few months ago concerning Climate Change and strange weather patterns that could be as a result. It links together several possibilities, and discusses a variety of different ways certain changes can affect the Jet Stream, and what it might cause.

(Climate Change) Earths Increasingly Peculiar Weather - Causes & Effects.

Not endorsing my own thread, but it might contain some valuable information you could be interested in.

well, there it is...

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 02:10 PM
My friends this thread is more about the possibility of another ice age instead of global warming.

Both sides of the issue can be debated until we all burn up or freeze to death with both sides having facts and figures to back themselves up. As stated in the opening thread if it is global warming within the present forecasted amount (which the trend is down by the latest report) we will survive. If it is global cooling by the same amount many will not. All factors need to be looked at to include the weather over the last couple of thousand years as indicated by the latest studies being published.. If it has been warmer as recently as 1000 years ago I would think we should consider it cyclic and what caused the cycle. Were the camp fires or the sun causing the last warming period; pretty simple question I would think.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 02:21 PM
reply to post by 727Sky

So if the temperatures were as warm only 1000 years ago what could have been the cause?

The article says this:

Of these proxies, 32 extend as far back as to the beginning of the first millennium. From these comprehensive proxy compilations we performed new reconstructions of the extra-tropical NH mean temperature. Note, however, that only little more than half of the proxies (the exact fraction depends on the calibration interval, etc.) correlate well enough with the local annual mean temperature to be included in the actual reconstructions.

So for that "only 1,000 years" ago the figures are based on something like 18 data points. Localized data.

But does it actually say that temperatures were as warm as they are now? Nope.

The two-millennia long reconstruction shows a well defined Medieval Warm Period, with a peak warming ca. 950–1050AD reaching 0.6ºC relative to the reference period 1880–1960 AD.
The thing is, the climate has been getting warmer since 1960.

So was the world really as warm a thousand years ago?

“The Medieval Warm Period was not as uniformly warm as we once thought--we can start calling it the Medieval Period again,” said the study’s lead author, William D’Andrea, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Our record indicates that recent summer temperatures on Svalbard are greater than even the warmest periods at that time.”

edit on 10/8/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 02:26 PM
last 100yrs+ mean global temps

Ok due to the gov computers being off you can't get to noaa but here's a pic and note the levelling out recently off mean global temperature.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 02:34 PM
reply to post by Phage

That was a good catch Phage and I do not know how I missed that... Been reading allot or scanning without actually understanding I suppose? Thanks....
If it is the sun that has created the last few ice ages (earth tilt, volcanos etc etc ) we should know one way or the other in another 10 to 15 years... Both sides are now talking about 2030 being the pumpkin year where one sides turns back into mice.

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 03:23 PM
reply to post by Phage

I don't see any all time high temperature records there.
There have been more all time high records set since 1960 (73) than all time low temperature records (41).

Nothing unusual during a warming phase. The instrumental record is only about 150 years long. More all time high record is exactly what you would expect on a planet coming out of a cooling period.

There will always be heat and cold waves. It's weather.

Currently there is no paleo record that could be compared to the instrumental record, not as a global average. But most continents have been warmer or colder in past and sometimes the rate of change from one climate regime to another was similar or even more rapid than in the last century.

I couldn't say if there are indications for another mini ice age, but definitely for a period with lower temperatures on average than seen in last 50 years.

edit on 8-10-2013 by talklikeapirat because: svalbard

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 03:30 PM
reply to post by talklikeapirat

Nothing unusual during a warming phase.
Then what was your point in bringing up recent cold snaps?

There will always be heat and cold waves. It's weather.
Yes. Weather. Not climate. Climate is the average of accumulated weather. A heat wave is a prolonged period of high temperatures, not necessarily record high temperatures. A cold wave does not necessarily mean record cold temperatures. A warming trend means we see more high records set and fewer low records. We are seeing more record high temperatures than cold.

I couldn't say if there are indications for another mini ice age, but definitely for period with lower temperatures on average than seen in last 50 years.
What "definite" indications would that be? There have been more all time high records set since 1960 (73) than all time low temperature records (41).
There have been 48 high temperature records set in the past 10 years compared to 5 low temperature records.
There have been 4 highest temperatures recorded this year and one lowest.

edit on 10/8/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

posted on Oct, 8 2013 @ 04:11 PM
reply to post by 727Sky

S.D. cattle deaths:
Temperature fell to -15C in the Mountains, lowest ever recorded at this time of the year. Romania – Coldest October 1st since 1929 – Snow, blizzards and closed roads

Temperatures have dropped dramatically, in some places even 13 degrees from the normal for the first day of this month. It was, say forecasters, the coldest day of October 1 of the last 84 years.
translated from the Russian article

According to the Russian Institute for Hydrological and Meteorological, arctic cold penetrates to the heart of Siberia. In Krasnoyarsk, the temperature dropped to the lowest level in history, -6.5 ° C. Previous minimum was established September 27, 1988, and amounted to -6.4 ° C. The Institute adds that it is a mean daily, not the minimum temperature, so you can guess that mercury bars at night are reduced below -15 degrees. Strong for this time of year mrozom not accompanied by a clear sky, as it might seem. Already 60 per cent. Asian part of Russia is covered with a layer several centimeters of snow. Most of the snow is in the mountains of Magadan - 40 cm and the Yamal Peninsula - 20 cm. moist and coldest September in the history of Moscow? Yeah rainy September in the Russian capital was not long ago. What's more, all indications are that in Moscow in September this year will further the coldest since the beginning of this century. The last time a similar intensity and duration of the anomalies observed in 2001, but when the daily temperature was a little higher than it is now. According to the Russian Institute in September of this year in Moscow columns of mercury had never exceeded 20 ° C, which is a very unusual phenomenon. Meteorologists estimate that this is the second month of this year, after March, with temperatures well below long-term norms. As if this is not enough, September was not only cold, but also very wet - in the capital has fallen three times more rain than usual (up to 282 per cent on September 26. Precipitation). Historically cold week in Eastern Europe, building on over Scandinavia powerful high-pressure system will make in the near future on the eastern part of Europe, such as the Russia, Baltic States, Ukraine, and in the second half of next week, also up from the Balkans to drain a record cold air from the north. During the day the temperature drops to as little as 4-6 degrees C, and at night there will be frost up to -8, -10 degrees C. As if that were not enough, in many regions are expected to be the first time this season snowfall. It is estimated that in the east of the continent and in the Black Sea region will be up to 10-12 ° C cooler than the norm, but rather indicates a thermal anomaly, and not just "more serious incident."

It will be an interesting winter if this year is like last year in Europe and Russia

A paper published today in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs climate of the central Alps over the past 10,000 years and finds precipitation and floods were driven by changes in solar activity. The authors propose variations in solar activity and insolation cause widening and shrinking of the Hadley cell, and influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] and Intertropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ]. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding solar amplification mechanisms by which small changes in solar activity have large effects on climate.

According to the authors, "We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500–3000, 900–1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation."

We are at the low cycle of the sunspots even though it was supposed to be the 11 year peak. A possible magnetic field reversal of the sun which may do nothing to earth's climate... If any of the scientist or their papers claiming it is the sun that controls whether we enter an ice age or not are correct (I still think the earth's tilt on it's axis plays a big part too) then we may not have to wait until 2030..
Presently there are many papers and facts that are hard to ignore on the global warming side.. But there is just enough wiggle room to make one wonder if they got their facts and computer models even close to being right.? The models they have used so far has not reflected the observations as indicated by the revised downward figures in the last report.... Time will tell, No?

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