Most people view Iranian society and politics as pretty straight forward but it is in fact very complicated and is interwoven with deeply held
religious convictions and interpretations of Twelver beliefs and The Mahdi.
The more conciliatory stance that is emerging from Iran was inevitable given the success of Ali Khamenei's favoured candidate, Hassan Rouhani, in the
recent Presidential election.
It signified the victory of the more traditional revolutionary old guard over those with radically different views over The Mahdi and his
It is rumoured that The Hojjatieh Society had infiltrated most levels of Iranian government and military and posed a real threat to the power and
influence of The Supreme Leader and The Guardian Council.
The Hojjatieh Society believes in manipulating events to bring about and to hasten the return of The Mahdi and the subsequent 'apocalypse'.
The society's leader is generally regarded to be Mesbah Yazdi who is also recognised as Ahmadinejad's spiritual advisor and inspiration.
However, it is rumoured that Ahmainejad and Yazdi had a major falling out with the recently departed President beginning to increasingly believe in a
more millenarian viewpoint which believes all religious and political leaders preceeding The Mahdi's return will be viewed as redundant thus greatly
reducing their present authority and standing.
Though holding opposing opinions on how The Mahdi will return both Khamenei and Yazdi opposed Ahamdinejad's favoured Presidential candidate Esfandiar
Mashaei who was effectively barred from further office.
Many more of Ahmadinejad's supporters have been imprisoned or removed from office.
All this resulted in Ahmadinejad being ostracised and becoming nothing more than a lame duck President.
Whilst all this has been going on Iranian society has been increasingly affected by sanctions with ordinary Iranian citizens facing increasingly harsh
circumstances - discontent has been brewing.
And so Ahmadinejad is seen as the ideal scapegoat - it's his policies that have resulted in Iran becoming a pariah in the international community.
Rouhani can disassociate himself from Ahmadinejad's policies and present a more conciliatory approach to 'The West' without discrediting The Supreme
Leader and The Mullah's.
Rouhani is vastly experienced in negotiating with 'The West' and has extensive knowledge of Iran's nuclear programme - he has a certain amount of
credibility both domestically and internationally.
If Obama reacts in a similar vein then Rouhani and his supporters will be viewed as heroes back home in Iran thus further diminishing the reputation
and influence of The Hojjatieh Society and the more erratic and unpredictable millenarians.
The suffering of the Iranian people will be eased and a ticking time bomb could defused - at least for the time being.
With Obama's dwindling reputation he would be a fool not to respond favourably to these overtures in what can only be a win / win scenario for most
people directly concerned.
edit on 20/9/13 by Freeborn because: Spelling, grammar, clarity etc