What the? Ok let me explain what this is about and why I think it deserves to be looked at here.
It all started with this article from the "Atlantic Wire"
Article can be found here
In the article they claim to have figured out that the next mass shooting will be in Washington State (Spokane specifically) and they even give a date
(February 12, 2014).
From the article:
The next mass shooting will take place on February 12, 2014, in Spokane, Washington. It will be committed by an emotionally disturbed, 38
year-old white man who will kill seven people and wound six more at a place he used to work using a semi-automatic handgun he purchased legally in the
That's very specific information.
They give "Mother Jones" as their reference from the compiled data being used. This link lead to that data:
Mother Jones Shooting Data
The article also states that there will be a few more mass shootings before Obama leaves office:
from the Atlantic Wire Article
If President Obama's second term has been beset by "unpredictable calamities" like the Navy Yard shooting, in the words of the Washington
Post's David Nakamura, we thought we'd try and offer a little prediction. Especially since, if such incidents occur at the same pace for the rest of
Obama's term as they have since 2009, there could be 14 more before he leaves office.
Now to the fun part (whatever), heres how they claim they came up with this prediction:
Looking at the past 30-plus years of spree- and mass-shootings, this is the easiest trend to spot. Nearly two-thirds of the 67 incidents — 65.7
percent — were at the hands of a white person.
Interesting information, but very generalized. For example the Boston Bombings where technically
done by white people.
Shooting at work
Most of the shootings in the database occurred at a place of business, either one where the shooter worked or a restaurant or other such
Isn't most places a place of work for someone?
38 years old
By focusing on the workplace as the site of the incident, it allowed us to better refine the age of the shooter.
Did they just tailor the above
data to fit this model?
While mental health issues are often tricky to diagnose, it's clear that there exists a correlation between a pattern of mental illness and
involvement in mass shootings.
Didn't we already have this conversion? ATS: Anti
Legally-purchased handgun purchased in-state
The vast majority of guns used in mass killings were obtained legally — 81.8 percent.
Again this seems misleading as it has been shown that
while the firearms used in many cases where legally purchased, the individual that used them in the shootings had illegally obtained them. Odd to say
This was one of the more complex calculations. In order to calculate it, we first wanted to figure out how frequently shooting incidents happened. So
we figured out how many days passed, on average, between them. Over the past 30 years, that figure is about 222 days — seven months or so.
I find very creepy if true.
I'm leaving off location and toll predictions due to how it's predicted in the article. (Location doesn't seem very well made, and the injury/death
toll was just simple math)
So here's the issue I have with this data. It gives a very exact date, perpetrator, and even gives an explanation for why the crime took place. It
even goes so far as to make a prediction that even more mass shootings will take place in the next few years. Which if their model of every 222 days
then there would only be 4-5 mass shootings before Obama leave office, and not 14. What's going on here? Is this just a justification for gun
control, a scare tactic for a more robust police state, or some other nefarious agenda? (I'm not forgetting that if Scientists strongly believe that
this data is correct, then they have a moral obligation to release this data to the public)
What do you think is going on, and can it be prevented?