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Global Warming Much Much worse than predicted.

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posted on Sep, 23 2013 @ 08:24 AM
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reply to post by stormdancer777
 


No doubt, that is sooo true!

What I personally try to do when researching a subject is to find as many scholar papers on the subject and read over all the data from the EVIDENCE they have gathered to write such a paper.

The ones I mostly look over NOW, HAS to be in relation to our Sun because that is where the root is.

There are a fair amount of papers to look over in regards to our Sun and climate/weather here on Earth. In order to determine our climate here on Earth we will no doubt in the future be relying on Space Weather to predict our weather. They are doing this now, however there is much still left to figure out before we combine the two. Make sense?




posted on Sep, 23 2013 @ 08:31 AM
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Get out the blankets and get the fire going. We're going into another ice age as the warming period of the earth is over and we're setting back into the norm which is the cold. Most earth history has been cold. Warming periods are brief and not the norm.



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 02:26 PM
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reply to post by TheRedneck
 


I don't see every anomaly tied to CO2, and being that global warming has been going on for a century now, with a thirty year pause, I don't think the term anomaly fits.

There is still a great deal that is not known about global warming, and anthropomorphic warming has not been completely proven as the cause, but that is where all the evidence is point. That being said, there is no reason to look for other explanations, contributions, as well.

Real scientists without an agenda are looking at global warming, and they are the scientists pointing at anthropomorphic warming as the most likely cause. These scientists do not just look at CO2 and anthropomorphic warming as the cause, they are looking at all the possibilities.

The people with the agenda are the ones putting out the propaganda to deny global warming, and that includes the carbon credit ruse.

I think you are smart to continue to look at what is happening, and there is nothing wrong with being a skeptic, as long as you are realistic.

I don't know for sure what the cause is, I don't think anybody does for certain, or within a reasonable degree of uncertainty. What I think that I see, is an under reporting of the seriousness of this situation.

I think that if things continue the way they are, in 5 to 10 years, Global Warming will dwarf all other issues.



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 02:34 PM
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reply to post by charles1952
 




Clearly obvious? I can't imagine a scientist faced with the dissent, questionable data (see hockey stick, etc.), and models which don't accurately predict, would ever say it's clearly obvious.


You don't have to be a scientist to see that what is happening to the Arctic is an obvious result of global warming.

While the cause of global warming is far from obvious, it is extremely complex, that global warming is happening is obvious to anyone paying attention. Anyone who isn't convinced after 2012 is simply out of the loop, for what ever reason, this is my opinion.



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 02:45 PM
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reply to post by rnaa
 


Thanks for your excellent contributions. Clearly you know the subject well.

I think the only real debate at this time, is what caused the warming pause between 1945 and 1975.

I don't think it is a mere coincidence that 1945, the year WW II ended, set a global temperature record that lasted for decades. That warming occurred mainly in the Atlantic, and the ice record in the Arctic indicates that warming had began before the war. I wonder if this could have anything to do with shipping across the Atlantic, how much heat did those ships produce, and how much pollution? What about the dust bowl in the US, infrastructure projects, Germany's run up to the start of WWII?

This could, maybe give us some indication if we can expect that pause to repeat, or possibly find a way to make this pause repeat.



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 02:54 PM
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Another report that global warming is being under reported, but apparently it isn't a conspiracy.

www.telegraph.co.uk...


This week’s IPCC report will underestimate the future threat of climate change because scientific models do not include certain key variables, according to a leading expert.

Important factors like the melting of frozen Arctic soil, which are expected to contribute significantly to global warming, have been left out of scientists’ calculations because the size of their impact remains unclear.

It means that models which will be used to inform the latest international assessment of climate science, to be revealed on Friday, “substantially underestimate” the scale of the problem, Lord Stern of Brentford claimed.

The former World Bank chief economist, who authored an influential 2007 report on the economics of climate change, said scientists were correct to exclude factors which are not fully understood from their models, but added that it is important to bear in mind that plenty of “deeply worrying” evidence has been left out.


I am here on ATS to report that it could be much, much worse.



Although I am not sure shades would work for Popeye.



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 04:54 PM
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reply to post by poet1b
 





I wonder if this could have anything to do with shipping across the Atlantic, how much heat did those ships produce ...


Now you're making sense! And there i thought for moment you really believe all the extra heat comes from all the carbon pollution. I mean think about it, all the electrical gizmos people are carrying nowadays, the heat has to go somewhere, yes? Right now as i'm typing on my laptop it produces heat ... the people here on ATS alone, they're ALL using computers ... it's mindboggling. And how many people are cooking EVERYDAY!!

Keep up the good work, so that our children's grandchildren don't have to eat icecream all day long to cool the world back down to where it once was. But don't for get to switch off your electrical typing device more often. Every single bit counts!


edit on 24-9-2013 by talklikeapirat because: deepfreezersforall



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 07:41 PM
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reply to post by poet1b
 


I found more evidence. You're absolutely right, it's the ships!! In 1938 new shipping lanes were opening up in the Pacific from North and South America to Australia (see map below).



I made a little gif for better visual presentation. It's a water temperature map with new shipping routes (black lines) drawn in by me. Not as cool as your arcitc pictures but you get the picture. The pictures really clearly tell the tale.




No more denying, this is it! We gotta tell greenpeace, they're using ships too!



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 10:05 PM
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reply to post by poet1b
 


Whenever there is a warming, it ends with cooling. For all we know, more Volcanic eruptions will take place and we will end up in another ice age.


A mysterious, centuries-long cool spell, dubbed the Little Ice Age, appears to have been caused by a series of volcanic eruptions and sustained by sea ice, a new study indicates.
www.livescience.com...

When Global Warming became trendy, our leaders decided to believe this was something to be concerned about and began to combat the issue via aerosols. Problem is, they added to the problem because they ran with this idea. To them.. the Earth was warming so rapidly they had to do something about it and quick. It's like the blind leading the blind.

When I began to read about the ocean warming a few years back the first thought that came into my mind was volcanic. There are millions of volcanoes in the ocean all over the world and we have no idea wth is going on at any moment down there in regards to volcanic action. Sea eruptions take a lot more energy too and emit more "stuff".

What do volcanoes discharge? Well, we know they spew out lots and lots of CO2 for starters.

When the activity of volcanoes are low, the Earth warms. When it is high, the Earth cools. The Earth is, has been, and will continue, correcting to maintain balance.

Our Sun is a major influence. Where it is traveling is having a huge impact not only for it, but for us too.

We are literally connected to the Sun, almost like an umbilical chord. Has the Sun been "normal"? Is it acting strange? YES!! Why? Because it comes into contact with different densities of energized particles.

I don't know... when I see a problem I look for a solution but I have to investigate the issue from the ground up beginning with the root. The Sun is the root... no doubt.

Sun ties in with our atmosphere and climate. It creates an imbalance for the Earth and she begins to notice changes and tries to correct them. If you get hot, you drink water. If the Earth gets hot, she spews the top of volcanoes. Its a viscous cycle.

Here is a good read.. www.sciencedaily.com...



posted on Sep, 24 2013 @ 11:52 PM
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reply to post by talklikeapirat
 


Interesting, I don't think we are ready for peer review yet, but I think it is something to be looked at.

I wonder how many ships were still coal burning back in those days, and how efficient they were.

We know cities warm the areas around them, why not shipping add heat to the currents.



posted on Sep, 25 2013 @ 01:36 AM
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reply to post by poet1b
 




I wonder if this could have anything to do with shipping across the Atlantic


Not much to do with shipping or pollution per se; but the 'dip' in temperatures in the late 40's and 50's can be attributed to a change in the way the ocean temperature was sampled.


A new twist on mid-century cooling



Over the last century, most of the more prominent drops in global temperature coincide with large, tropical volcanic eruptions (the solid lines in Figure 1). However, there are no such eruptions in 1945 (the dashed line). In fact, the drop in 1945 doesn't appear to be related to any known physical phenomenon. Another clue is the fact that the discontinuity is apparent in sea surface temperatures (SST) but not in land temperatures... (see link for graphs)
...
What caused such a dramatic drop in SST in 1945? In the wartime years leading up to 1945, most sea temperatures measurements were taken by US ships, who measured the temperature of the intake water used for cooling the ship's engines. This method tends to yield higher temperatures due to the warm engine-room environment. However, in August 1945, British ships resumed taking SST measurements. British crews collected water in uninsulated buckets. The bucket method has a cooling bias.



posted on Sep, 25 2013 @ 02:27 AM
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reply to post by rnaa
 





Not much to do with shipping or pollution per se; but the 'dip' in temperatures in the late 40's and 50's can be attributed to a change in the way the ocean temperature was sampled.


Doubtful. This would've been offset by the ship engines warming the surrounding water.

The real culprit for the sudden cool down is more likely one thing. The end of the war. During World War II more than a billion bombs exploded, then the rifle shots fired, not to mention all the grenades.

superhot bullet

A single bullet fired from a rifle can get as hot as 500 °C, only one single bullet! Add to this all explosions. I don't know right now how many Manhattans this would be, but maybe Poet could do the math, he's good with the numbers.

This all suddenly stopped. Exactly at the same time when temperatures started to drop. Coincidence? I think not.

This is really what happened. End of the War = no more explosions. And the PDO turned negative.


edit on 25-9-2013 by talklikeapirat because: simple thermodynamics, duh!



posted on Sep, 25 2013 @ 04:25 PM
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Could a quiet sun cancel global warming?
www.washingtonpost.com... blog.html


A recent report from the National Research Council (NRC) “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate” finds small variations in solar output can have “major influence” on climate, particularly at the regional scale.


This article/blog is so back and forth it makes my head spin. lol

Either way, proof is in the pudding.



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 01:29 PM
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reply to post by rnaa
 


You really know your stuff.

Changes in the way temperatures were measured could make a big difference. If this is true, and it can account for the mid century pause in temperature rise, then I am surprised mainstream science hasn't looked at this.



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 01:31 PM
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reply to post by talklikeapirat
 


There were massive amounts of energy released in WW II.

I find it hard to believe that is CO2 can warm the planet, than why not WW II. I am surprised that there are no serious studies on this possibility.



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 01:51 PM
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So now that the IPCC report is out, we can check how accurate the leaked report was.

www.climatechange2013.org...


The average rate of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet has very likely substantially
increased from 34 [–6 to 74] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2001 to 215 [157 to 274] Gt yr–1
over the period 2002–2011. [4.4]
• The average rate of ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet has likely increased from 30 [–37 to
97] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2001 to 147 [72 to 221] Gt yr–1 over the period 2002–2011.
There is very high confidence that these losses are mainly from the northern Antarctic
Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. [4.4]


215 / 34 = a 6.3 fold increase in Greenland ice sheet melt.
147 / 30 = about a 4.9 fold increase in Greenland ice sheet melt.

In the Op. the numbers I used was a 6 fold increase and a 5 fold increase.

I will have to read more of the report to see why this rate of acceleration is expected to drop.

Could this be an indication of a possible 1.5 meter rise in ocean levels from Greenland and Antarctica alone?

It looks that way to me.



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 03:14 PM
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reply to post by MamaJ
 


We are actually going through a very low period of solar activity, if memory serves me right.

Which means that is the next cycle is much higher, we might see an increase in the acceleration of GW.



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 04:04 PM
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reply to post by poet1b
 


I try pretty hard not to run around like chicken little, but that is what gnaws at the back of my brain. If the sun decides to wake up, what's going to happen. It won't be the end of Earth of course or us, but I'm really afraid of what kind of chaos will ensue. What will it mean for us, our economy, our borders, our food... our normal?



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 10:07 PM
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reply to post by poet1b

My apologies for the late reply... been a little busy lately.


I don't see every anomaly tied to CO2, and being that global warming has been going on for a century now, with a thirty year pause, I don't think the term anomaly fits.

An anomaly is anything which does not match expectations or is out of the ordinary. In the case of Global Warming, there are quite many anomalies every year. Every time the weather is hotter than average, colder than average, there is a flood outside of a flood plain, etc., that is an anomaly. The Arctic Melt is an anomaly simply because it is a deviation from what we expect.

One could actually argue that any chaotic system is composed more of anomalies than of expectations.


There is still a great deal that is not known about global warming, and anthropomorphic warming has not been completely proven as the cause, but that is where all the evidence is point. That being said, there is no reason to look for other explanations, contributions, as well.

There is always reason to look for alternative explanations. Any theory or hypothesis can be incorrect or incomplete. The second one says "there is no reason to look at alternatives" that person just left the realm of science and entered the realm of propaganda.

There was no reason in most people's mind to look for alternatives to Isaac Newton's Laws of Motion... but had Einstein thought that way, we would not have as good an understanding of the Universe as we do now, and GPS would never have been successfully implemented.


Real scientists without an agenda are looking at global warming...

I'm sorry, are you saying that a scientist who looks at alternatives to CO2 based Global Warming is not a "real" scientist? If so, you are practicing politics, not science.


I think that if things continue the way they are, in 5 to 10 years, Global Warming will dwarf all other issues.

In 10 years, if things have not progressed according to today's predictions, would you be willing to state that you were wrong?

I have to say I doubt that, because the debate still rages today despite failed prediction after failed prediction.

TheRedneck



posted on Sep, 28 2013 @ 11:56 PM
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reply to post by TheRedneck
 


I am sorry Redneck, I messed up in the post you were replying to.

In this statement,

"There is still a great deal that is not known about global warming, and anthropomorphic warming has not been completely proven as the cause, but that is where all the evidence is point. That being said, there is no reason to look for other explanations, contributions, as well."

I meant to say, "That being said, there is no reason NOT to look for other explanations, contributions, as well."

I was honestly agreeing with you, that we should be looking for other causes. I get in a hurry sometimes and often make mistakes. "No reason not" is pretty poor sentence structure alone. I should do a better.

That being said, I am not seeing failed predictions, I am seeing GW happening much faster than predicted. I have been watching this since I was a kid in the seventies.

10 years ago, I was on the fence as to whether or not global warming was a real problem. In 2008 I became a believer. If global warming levels off, stops accelerating over the next ten year, I will probably consider this to be another pause. If global warming reverses, I will become quite the skeptic, And admit that I once supported the theory.

If we are seeing the Arctic ice free in ten years or less, do you think you will recognize that this is for real? What would convince you that GW is happening?




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