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FarmerGeneral
reply to post by poet1b
That is really funny and not in a comical sense. The Ice cap at the North Pole has increased by 60% since 2011. Gotta have those carbon taxes to starve the world.
Check this link out.
Ice Cap Increases by 60%
I'm all for cleaning up our act as far as pollution goes, but this Green Movement is pure BS. Guess what? Everything on the earth is composed of Carbon atoms. I guess from this viewpoint all life and the earth it's self should be destroyed, after all carbon is bad.
This in my opinion is complete drivel. Global warming? Global Cooling? Life is about change, nothing remains static, but in an atheistic world devoid of spirit everything should be controlled, because according to this viewpoint, we are gods and can do what we please. One day the lies will be revealed and all these pushers of misinformation will be brought to account whether alive or dead.
protruckr
Interesting Subject Global Warming Green House Effect.
Not only was this Best summer Recorded in Western Canada but the Humidity is Alot more noticeable then ever before,People in Area around Sin City have about 3% 5% Dry Air always this is the First ever Report I have personaly received from people I know who are telling me the Humidity they are for first time ever feels more like Tropical Rain Forest humidity. I am starting to Be leave Global Warming is Truly worse then they let on one only has to Look at North Pole !
protruckr
Interesting Subject Global Warming Green House Effect.
Not only was this Best summer Recorded in Western Canada but the Humidity is Alot more noticeable then ever before,People in Area around Sin City have about 3% 5% Dry Air always this is the First ever Report I have personaly received from people I know who are telling me the Humidity they are for first time ever feels more like Tropical Rain Forest humidity. I am starting to Be leave Global Warming is Truly worse then they let on one only has to Look at North Pole !
source
The inconsistency between observed and simulated global warming is even more striking for temperature trends computed over the past fifteen years (1998–2012). For this period, the observed trend of 0.05 ± 0.08 °C per decade is more than four times smaller than the average simulated trend of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C per decade (Fig. 1b). It is worth noting that the observed trend over this period — not significantly different from zero — suggests a temporary ‘hiatus’ in global warming.
Surface temperatures mean nothing ...
Please provide the exact values for global mean surface temperature rise for the last 12 and 15 years,
0
Estimates of the observed global warming for the recent 15-year period 1998-2012 vary between
0.0037°C/year (NCDC) , 0.0041°C/year (HadCRUT4) and 0.008 C/year (GISS).
NASA
We suggest use of 12-month (and n×12) running mean temperature to fully remove the annual cycle and improve information content in temperature graphs.
How does the 2010-12 La Niña event compare against the six previous biggest La Niña events since 1949? This figure includes only strong events (with at least three bimonthly rankings in the top six), after replacing the slightly weaker 2007-09 event with 2010-12 (rankings are listed here). La Niña events have lasted up to and over three years since 1949, in fact, they do tend to last longer on average than El Niño events. The longest two events included here lasted through most of 1954-56 and 1973-75. The longest event NOT included here occurred in 1999-2001 which reached the 'strong' threshold (top six rankings) just once.
How does the 2009-10 El Niño event compare against the seven previous biggest El Niño events since 1950? This figure includes only strong events (with at least three bimonthly rankings in the top six), with the exception of the 2009-10 event that reached the top six ranking twice. Compared to the previous version of this figure, 1997-98 now reaches very similar peak values to the 1982-83 event, just above the +3.0 sigma threshold.
The pictures clearly tell the tale,
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic
The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C.
Tracking the world's average temperature from the late 19th century, people in the 1930s realized there had been a pronounced warming trend. During the 1960s, weather experts found that over the past couple of decades the trend had shifted to cooling. With a new awareness that climate could change in serious ways, in the early 1970s some scientists predicted a continued gradual cooling, perhaps a phase of a long natural cycle or perhaps caused by human pollution of the atmosphere with smog and dust. Others insisted that the effects of such pollution were temporary, and humanity's emission of greenhouse gases would bring warming over the long run. All of them agreed that their knowledge was primitive and any prediction was guesswork. But understanding of the climate system was advancing swiftly. The view that warming must dominate won out in the late 1970s as it became clear that the cooling spell (mainly a Northern Hemisphere effect) had indeed been a temporary distraction. When the rise continued into the 21st century, penetrating even into the ocean depths, scientists recognized that it signaled a profound change in the climate system. Nothing like it had been seen for centuries, and probably not for millennia. The specific pattern of changes, revealed in objects ranging from ship logs to ice caps to tree rings, closely matched the predicted effects of greenhouse gas emissions.
The study finds that future temperature rises due to global warming will probably be on the high end of projections, as much as a potentially catastrophic 8 degrees warmer than now by the end of the century.
Most predictions of upcoming temperature rises are roughly 3.6 degrees to 8.1 degrees.
Nothing like it had been seen for centuries, and probably not for millennia.
If you plot temperature data for periods shorter than 30 years use a 12 months moving average (running mean) as NASA advices you to do, to avoid the mistake you made. (13 months will work too)
No massive La Nina.
Some facts about the 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña events
The 2010–11 La Niña event was one of the strongest on record, comparable in strength with the La Niña events of 1917–18, 1955–56 and 1975–76.
In October and December 2010, and February and March 2011, the Southern Oscillation Index values (a measure of a La Niña's strength) were the highest recorded for each month since records commenced in 1876.
The PDO does not drive ENSO
and does not store heat in the deep ocean.
The near-record global heat occurred despite ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean remaining on the cool side of neutral with near-average sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and below-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The cool water upwelling that continues over the eastern equatorial Pacific tends to depress global atmospheric temperatures by transferring heat content from the atmosphere to the sub-surface ocean. Such trends tend to dominate during negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These negative PDO periods are punctuated by numerous La Nina or cooler surface water conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Earth climate system has been in a negative PDO phase since the early 2000s, a phase which continues to this day. Despite the relative atmospheric cooling effects of this natural ocean circulation and temperature change, the decade of the 2000s was the hottest on record. Natural variability, which in this case would push for atmospheric cooling, had been overwhelmed by human-caused warming.
Not the hottest temperature for several thousand years (not even close).
Their two main results are a confirmation that current global surface temperatures are hotter than at any time in the past 1,400 years (the general 'hockey stick' shape, as shown in Figure 1), and that while the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are clearly visible events in their reconstruction, they were not globally synchronized events.
...
"Our regional temperature reconstructions also show little evidence for globally synchronized multi-decadal shifts that would mark well-defined worldwide MWP and LIA intervals. Instead, the specific timing of peak warm and cold intervals varies regionally, with multi-decadal variability resulting in regionally specific temperature departures from an underlying global cooling trend."
...
Overall, the team concluded that current temperatures are probably warmer than any other 30-year period in the last 1,400 years. Europe appears to have been hotter during the 'Roman Warm Period', but the Arctic is hotter now.
"of the 52 individual records that extend to AD 500, more sites (and a higher proportion) seem warmest during the twentieth century than during any other century. The fraction of individual records that indicates the highest temperatures during 1971–2000 decreases with increasing record length, consistent with an overall cooling trend over the past two millennia"
...
They find that over the past 2,000 years, until 100 years ago, the planet underwent a long-term cooling trend. There was a 'Medieval Warm Period', but different regions warmed at different times, and overall global surface temperatures were warmer at the end of the 20th century than during the MWP peak. The 2,000-year cooling trend has been erased by the warming over the past century. And of course more warming is yet to come from continuing human greenhouse gas emissions.
the Medieval Warm Period has known causes which explain both the scale of the warmth and the pattern. It has now become clear to scientists that the Medieval Warm Period occurred during a time which had higher than average solar radiation and less volcanic activity (both resulting in warming). New evidence is also suggesting that changes in ocean circulation patterns played a very important role in bringing warmer seawater into the North Atlantic. This explains much of the extraordinary warmth in that region. These causes of warming contrast significantly with today's warming, which we know cannot be caused by the same mechanisms.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Record-breaking La Niña events
The 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña events were two of the most significant in Australia’s recorded meteorological history.
I suggest always reading a paper cited in an article or blog for yourself, don't trust anyone else to interpret it for you... it's rare that they get it right.