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Dude ... 'HIDE THE DECLINE' .... (Michael Mann)
Your 'global warming is much worse' ... not gonna' fly.
“Mike’s Nature trick … to hide the decline.”
November 21, 2009 by greenfyre
BPSDB One of the supposedly most damning quotes from the CRU Hack “scandal” is:
“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”
which the Deniers are citing as “proof positive” or data alteration , falsification, etc.
I suggested that, as with all of the other quotes, as they stood it didn’t actually say anything one way or another. Having worked in the sciences I said that to me it sounded like someone discussing a clever technique from the journal Nature for dealing with statistical noise or something of that sort.
Since then we learn that:
Mann said the “trick” Jones referred to was placing a chart of proxy temperature records, which ended in 1980, next to a line showing the temperature record collected by instruments from that time onward. “It’s hardly anything you would call a trick,” Mann said, adding that both charts were differentiated and clearly marked.
Hackers steal electronic data from top climate research center
and that (emphasis added)
The “decline” refers to the “divergence problem”. This is where tree ring proxies diverge from modern instrumental temperature records after 1960. The divergence problem is discussed as early as 1998, suggesting a change in the sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in recent decades (Briffa 1998). It is also examined more recently in Wilmking 2008 which explores techniques in eliminating the divergence problem. So when you look at Phil Jone’s email in the context of the science discussed, it is not the schemings of a climate conspiracy but technical discussions of data handling techniques available in the peer reviewed literature.
Results due to Antarctic ice range from lowering sea levels by 6 centimeters to a 14-centimeter increase. The 2007 report forecast a reduction of 2 centimeters to 14 centimeters, due to higher snowfall than surface melt. The UN said in the earlier report that its understanding of how the southern continent loses ice from glaciers flowing into the sea wasn't good enough to include in its prediction.
The authors of the latest report said there has been “substantial progress in ice-sheet modeling” since 2007. Even so, there remain “significant challenges” in modeling Antarctic glaciers and ice sheets that terminate at the sea, and the forecast for their contribution to sea levels by 2100 was the same across all different emissions scenarios examined, unlike with Greenland.
The ice is melting! We're doomed! Run for your lives! We don't understand all this data, and it might even show the opposite of what we're predicting, but run for your lives anyway!
And in the meantime, stop using electricity, stop moving from place to place, quit your jobs, and pay us more money.
I dunno, I have found hole after hole after hole in the Global Warming theory, and yet some people still refuse to believe it might be a hoax.
Carbon dioxide is absorbing our heat like a blanket, but don't look at what heat it can actually absorb.
Carbon dioxide is poisonous, but don't think about the fact that every animal on Earth produces it and every green plant on Earth absorbs it for food. We're going to experience massive famines due to increased temperatures, but never mind the fact that food grows in warmer temperatures and not in colder temperatures. There won't be enough oxygen to breathe, but ignore the fact that photosynthesis, which is partially driven by carbon dioxide levels, drives oxygen production.
And while you're at it, ignore completely the shoddy modelling that remained hidden for so long
and the damning e-mails with slanderous statements that those evil hackers found... you weren't supposed to see that.
Oh, and forget we said anything about hockey sticks.
One would think that somewhere, sometime, somehow, people would finally "get it" that it's just a scam
a power play by governments to grab more power and control over people and extort more money. But, alas, such is apparently not the modus operandi of the average human being.
Take a shot, show me where my math is wrong.
Leaked IPCC draft report
Unlike in the AR4, these projections include a contribution from changes in ice-sheet outflow, for which the central projection is 0.11 m. There is only medium confidence in these ranges of projected global mean sea level rise, because there is only medium confidence in the likely range of projected contributions from models of ice sheet dynamics, and because there is no consensus about the reliability of semi-empirical models, which give higher projections than process-based models. Larger values cannot be excluded, but current scientific understanding is insufficient for evaluating their probability.
It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate
observed during 1971–2010 for all RCP scenarios. For the period 2081 to 2100, compared to 1986 to
2005, global mean sea level rise is likely to be in the range 0.29–0.55 m for RCP2.6, 0.36–0.63 m for
RCP4.5, 0.37–0.64 m for RCP6.0, and 0.48–0.82 m (0.56–0.96 m by 2100 with a rate of rise 8–15 mm yr–1 over the last decade of the 21st century) for RCP8.5.
No one is saying that. Don't be silly.
That's because the holes don't turn out to be holes just black paint on a wall that deniers love to try run through. Y'all must love smacking your heads against concrete.
I've seen many a thread where you do the two-step with another member in on this particular issue and you've been proven wrong in each of them.
No one discounts the benefits of Co2, quit putting words in people's mouths... it's rude.
Not hidden, you just didn't know where or what to look for. I wasn't even looking for them and found them.
Which myself and others have posted a million times and when shown in context amount to zip that could be considered scandalous. There's one just one post above yours as a matter of fact. Still don't see it?
Why would anyone want to forget that when the hockey stick has been vindicated?
Indeed, I think that all the time... when are you people going to get it? When are you going to wise up to the scam perpetuated by the oil cartels?
You exposed the power grab and control over people and extortion in your own thread recently, it's really a shame that you let politics keep you from connecting the dots. It ain't us "greenie weenies" that's for damn sure!
You make speculation after speculation, but you have yet to make any holes.
Shipping lanes opening up across the Arctic for the first time in known history.
Soils unfrozen for the first time in over a million years, revealing ancient forests.
These point make global warming a fact, even if many people choose to live in denial.
Considering that the first part of the quote you posted is an almost perfect translation of the source article (maybe, we're not sure, possibly, could happen, might be), the appropriate excerpt of which I posted, I assume you mean the last quoted paragraph. In this case, that is EXACTLY what is being pushed forth: less energy usage. That means less travel, which leads to less ability to drive to and from a job, and less electric power usage. There's no possible way in reality you can combine less energy production with anything except less energy usage.
Speaking of beating one's head against a wall... in this case a wall of complete and total ignorance of energy transfer characteristics, thermodynamic application, and chemical analysis.
I guess I imagined the few dozen threads I have engaged in where this is seriously put forth.
Congratulations. I guess one just has to be a believer to see some things.
Or maybe you just came along later than I did. The models are easy to find now, since they were initially leaked. Before that, no such luck.
What I see are excuses and after-the-fact damage control. Were I to use that sort of supposedly loose language in a report, I would be a laughing stock.
As everyone connected with James Hansen, the IPCC, and East Anglia should be.
Please look back through that thread. You apparently missed the part where I explained the purpose of this scam. It's nothing more than an attempt to peg the dollar (or the Euro/Amero actually) to energy usage instead of production, should the production peg fail.
Nobody (except you) is even remotely considering the possibilty sea level rise could accelerate by six times every decade.
Is your bicycle or feet broken if so, is there really nothing else we can come up with to solve the problem of dirty energy? Humanity has reached it's capacity to problem solve...we've not made any progress toward that goal already?
I don't know what's preventing you from acknowledging it.
I guess you did because they don't exist.
I guess you've forgotten the post of mine you came across that provided you with what you said you'd been looking for, for years.
Again, I don't know how you are able to see things differently than they actually appear... these are not excuses or damage control, they are the emails in their entirety vs little snippets.
I didn't miss anything, including the post you tied James Hansen et al into the conspiracy. It had been very informative up until that point... still is, I very much appreciated the history lesson, you just lost at me at that point. I think I literally did the Jackie Chan meme face. I will never understand this NWO/agenda 21 conspiracy tie in to climate change... it's completely illogical. The world economy is based on fossil fuel, we go to war after war over it, it lobbies every government in the world, essentially controls western and middle eastern governments... but somehow it's the people saying we need to rethink fossil fuels that are the problem? Seriously?
I for one appreciate your thread and don't see it as doom and gloom but probably a natural occurances that the earth goes through. Since 2007 we have hit records here in the northwest. I don't know anyone who lives where I do that does not notice it. It's Sept 15th so we are experiencing an Indian summer but hitting 90-96 degrees everyday is a bit extreme. Maybe I am more sensitive to the changes, but even if I wasn't it's well documented that there has been less snow and higher temperatures 2 years in a row here.
I am not sure if people are arguing it isn't happening or are saying they aren't noticing it. Maybe in some areas people aren't noticing it as much but we are. I read today that it was due to a higher jet stream than usual - whatever that means. I thought that was pretty constant but evidently it shifts? Regardless - it it getting warmer.