Yellowstone Just Lit Up Again With a New Swarm- happening now

reply to post by sageturkey


I actually find that readout you provided helpful. I know there was a post about not calling it a harmonic tremor unless experts were called so I get that (I wouldn't know how to differentiate anyway - in spite of examples given by USGS for telling the signatures apart). However, I see no harm in asking if it is in fact harmonic.

Having said that - I seriously don't know what the big deal would be if it were harmonic. It is a volcano after all. I'm under no illusion that magma isn't moving around the park - I've seen it so we all know it's at the surface in some areas. I suppose if we saw a series of harmonic tremors it would be concerning but if just one - why would this be so bad?

reply to post by Dianec

Yeah, I hear ya loud and clear. It's definitely in a state of constant movement, it's a magma chamber after all.
I think that the issue is, people are looking for a sign of impending eruption and it's been said that the presence of HT can signal that event because it's usually associated with movement close to the surface. In reality, we don't really know if anything is that close to the surface. Geyser activity could all be from water sources deep within... So, reporting that it's present can be equated to shouting "It's gonna blow!!!" which no one can really be sure of until things start popping-off around the park.
Many of us base our concerns and gauge the threat on what others are saying, so it's prudent to not cause any undue alarm.
With that being said, I too see no harm in expressing our concerns and asking questions. I'm still puzzled by the changes that I have mentioned, I think that they're plain to see to anyone who looks. What they mean exactly, I can't say...

Not sure if this has been posted but yellowstone erupting + govt shutdown of national parks to avoid panic or coverage of it possibly?

www.foxnews.com...

reply to post by outsidethecave


Well as the ole RAHM
Used too say
"never let " ya,,ya we know,,, who knows,, said the owl,, who,,who?

reply to post by Dianec


I think the key issue here, is that while it wouldn't really be necessarily a major deal, were it detected, most people don't realize that.

It seems to be the heralding call to doom and gloom, so I believe that is why TA wants to avoid discussing it.

reply to post by sageturkey


Edit -

I think I misread your post so initially responded to a mistake I saw I had made - you were speaking of harmonic tremors and why people don't discuss them. I want to correct something in my own post anyway. I said I had seen magma - which I have not in that park. I should have said "evidence of magma" so might as well correct that now - I don't like to make those sorts of mistakes - as it can be misconstrued just as harmonic tremors can. I agree - it doesn't hurt to ask. I am not sure they would tell us at USGS (especially right now) so we are left to those here to tell us what they think.

I was surprised by the boiling mud pots and boiling water when I visited (in August of 2012). There were a few boiling water areas - some with microorganisms that can look as if magma is present if in the distance - but those colors are easily understood given the education provided through the park. These areas that are boiling is what I meant by evidence lava cannot be too far underground (in case anyone were to misread that). If it looks red/orange and is thick - off in the distance it can easily be mistaken for magma by some save for what we know about the park. I'm sure park officials would tell us if magma had hit the surface.

I am sure park officials would also tell us if these pools were getting hotter or were boiling where boiling did not exist before. I'm not sure they would tell us about HT since those are an indication of movement. In the meantime it's an amazing site to visit - and a wake up call on how close that magma must be to the surface to create that kind of heat.

Thanks for sharing everyone - love learning about this place.

westcoast
reply to post by Dianec

 

I think the key issue here, is that while it wouldn't really be necessarily a major deal, were it detected, most people don't realize that.

It seems to be the heralding call to doom and gloom, so I believe that is why TA wants to avoid discussing it.

Well I'd be happy to discuss harmonic tremor or volcanic tremor if either were present at YS, but they are not. The signatures at YMR are vehicle signatures, and I see them all the time. Every day. Just tired of pointing it out. Understand the seismic monitoring, where it is positioned, the likely propagation of various signals, and you too will see this for yourself.

Sageturkey is making the same mistakes I used to long ago. Yes, the signals appear similar to the USGS examples, but that happens all the time- there are lots of signals that appear similar. But now I have better tools, and easily avoid them. I put in my time. I studied hard. I made contacts. I acquired the tools. Because I was sick of not knowing the truth, and trying to rely on hearsay from doomists. Yeah, I might still be a doomist to a degree, but I try to balance that with solid information I can depend on. I did this so as to form a reliable buffer between us and scientists, who otherwise get pelted with trivial questions left and right from us. They get tired of answering them too, when they have already put the information out there, and most people are just too lazy to seek it out and learn for themselves.

So now speaking to all of you, not just westcoast- don't be "most people," and learn yourself, or simply ask one of us that has put in more time, and has acquired better tools. Once you study hard enough, you are then able to ask and phrase questions in such a knowledgeable way that will elicit responses from scientists, instead of no response at all. And even then, I still screw up (remember when I freaked over the waves from the 9+ in Japan being received at YS?) I just screw up a lot less, because of experience. There are so many things that register on extremely sensitive seismometers that deciphering through them really does require better tools- if you are going to do it quickly- and even then, some signatures at the edges of seismic station coverage can be extremely difficult to diagnose. And when we are talking a volcano as large as YS, all the more difficult.

Harmonic tremor is a particular type of volcanic tremor that exhibits dominant frequencies in equal multiples of a base, dominate frequency. An example of this is a signal that shows dominate frequencies of 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, 7.5, and 9 Hz. Notice the interval of 1.5 Hz in this case. They show up as repeating bands on a spectrograph. It is very hard to distinguish from a waveform alone, and at this point I would never trust the diagnosis of such a signal from anyone that does not have better tools than simple waveform data on a webicorder. So if all you are viewing is webicorder waveforms, in my opinion, you are not in a position to make a call on whether a tremor signal is harmonic, at all. So don't- plain and simple. Either study and learn how to convert seismic data, or ask one of us that can. At this point on ATS, PuterMan and I both have this ability, that I know of. I have reason to believe that because we use different tools, I may be able to do this slightly easier, but that is just conjecture- and it really doesn't matter.

What does matter though is what I actually see when I am monitoring YS with my rig. Please understand folks that I can make most assessments in seconds with it. I said most, and let me be clear: MOST, not ALL. I still am learning. There are still signatures that occur at the edges of the seismic station coverage that give me the willies sometimes, and I can't do a damn thing about them, or make heads or tails of them. At that point I have to defer to expert's opinions.

For example, what do you think when a signal occurs on the shortband component of seismic station, but not on the broadband component? Or when it occurs on the surface component, but not on the borehole component (in cases where both are co-located and present?) Or worse, when a portion of it occurs on both the shortband and broadband components? Is it telemetry error? Noise? Or is it possibly a shallow, low amplitude level, near-surface signal- a possibility which has been known to occur at certain volcanoes, even during eruptions?

Yes, this is complicated as crap. And that is a reason why there is such little patience to linger around and discuss these things with people like me, and probably you, who just get into observations from the periphery, and not go through the intense schooling necessary to really learn the science of it. I am guilty. Not schooled. The tools of a pro are in the hands of an amateur. But I learn daily. More and more. And make less and less mistakes as time goes on. And as long as my readers understand that, we're all good.

Also, more directly on topic of the current swarms: Update- swarms in lull, and all gone quiet again. Hope it stays that way for a while.

Thanks TA - If not for responding directly, but for at least addressing a question that I had.
I understand a bit more than I did yesterday and that's a good thing. The signatures that I mentioned - While totally unlike the normal vehicle traffic signatures that I questioned previously, are most likely then snowplows or something of that nature if I'm understanding you correctly. They also look alot like rockfall or glacier movement signatures, which we know isn't the case as well. So yeah, many signatures look alike (which is why I posed the previously unanswered question in the first place before jumping to conclusions)...
It's when we don't get feedback that we tend to try and make our own assumptions, which usually leads us down the wrong path as happened in my case. It's greatly appreciated that you have volunteered yourself to be the sacrificial lamb, acting as the buffer between those who know and those of us that don't. I can see signs that it's becoming a burden as your knowledge increases and you focus your attention on more intense study of this event, perhaps a 'TA press secretary' or 'TA Apprentice' is in order here lol....
As long as they're not like a Department of State press secretary, because all they do is dance around the questions and spout party line doublespeak
We'll keep looking - and asking. For without us, there would be no need to host additional threads such as this. I love the 'tools' comment, I think that you're at the point where you deserve the respect of the educated elite and all discussion of this event could take place in the QW thread where you and - dare I join the club and say 'grumpy' could hash out your differences in opinions and find common ground along the way - which is what scientists do all the time anyway - regardless of their level of education...


Thanks again - your input and guidance is always appreciated.

reply to post by sageturkey


You're welcome. And actually, I have been eying very carefully for a long time certain people around here that I might consider passing on some things, including duplicating my rig. But the effort and time that would entail is probably more than I care to put forth, to be honest. My days off of work are precious, to be spent recovering from a grueling job. I just really don't have the time- and even if I did make the time- I'd seriously have to require money, because I am pretty poor. You'd have to:

A. Want it bad
B. Have the money- and how much, I don't even know.
C. Have a pretty slammin computer
D. Be willing to give up one hell of a lot of time yourself.

I just don't see it's feasible. No one around here wants it that bad. But yeah, I would love nothing more than to have a few more people able to watch YS and LV, and others, at the level of capability that I have at this point. But there is a responsibility that comes with that. And I'd have to get permission to give access to get certain things. It would be a lot of work. Yuk. I work enough as it is.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Roger that. I barely have the time to recoop from the workweek myself - much less finding a bit of time to pursue the things that I enjoy, such as roaming the prairie and getting fresh air and a good dose of Vitamin D.
Much much less, finding any time at all to study the subject of earthquakes, which you have obviously devoted a great deal of resources to - time, money, brainpower, etc...
They still interest the heck out of me, still concern me a bit as well. Just not enough to devote any additional time to...
I just need to remember that when offering any commentary on the subject.

ETA: And yep, looks like the snowplows are running again this morning. Started just before 6:00 A.M. on YMR after being quiet throughout the night. I see that now! Yay!

no offence ta but seismologists and those that are learning seismology must be aware that our planet changes the norm and gives us more mystery s as we learn and no self respecting seismologist would risk feeling relaxed as with tectonic shifts and volcanic tremors can mean anything really a volcano that shows every sign of eruption can suddenly go quiet and stop where as volcanoes with little signs can suddenly erupt its like mount st helens where volcanologist thought it would be a normal eruption didnt put the exclusion zone far enough so several people died or there was a case a volcano had no volcanic signs so a volcanologist took his students up the volcano and out of 16 people only the professor managed to survive and ive been studying volcanos and earthquakes since i was little as i was so interested on everything pompeii and how earth science could be used to describe the disaster in a different view

experts will only worry when they recognise five primary observational (predominantly geophysical and geochemical) indicators of volcanic unrest
(1)
ground deformation: comprises inflation, deflation and ground rupturing.
(2)
degassing: comprises gas plumes from vents and changes in the fumarolic activity.
(3)
changes at a crater lake: includes variation in temperature, pH and water levels, increases in gas discharge or bubbling and changes in water chemistry or colour as well as shifts in the position of the crater lake.
(4)
thermal anomaly: includes increases in fumarole temperature and hot spots identified by satellite remote sensing.
(5)
seismicity: comprises shallow/deep volcanic events, tremors, tornillos, hybrid events, single event earthquakes and volcano-tectonic events.

kezzy24
no offence ta but seismologists and those that are learning seismology must be aware that our planet changes the norm and gives us more mystery s as we learn and no self respecting seismologist would risk feeling relaxed as with tectonic shifts and volcanic tremors can mean anything really a volcano that shows every sign of eruption can suddenly go quiet and stop where as volcanoes with little signs can suddenly erupt its like mount st helens where volcanologist thought it would be a normal eruption didnt put the exclusion zone far enough so several people died or there was a case a volcano had no volcanic signs so a volcanologist took his students up the volcano and out of 16 people only the professor managed to survive and ive been studying volcanos and earthquakes since i was little as i was so interested on everything pompeii and how earth science could be used to describe the disaster in a different view

No offense taken. Umm...but darn, I just wish you'd have thrown an English lesson in there once or twice with the seismology classes.

Still, I see you are a new member, and welcome to ATS. I look forward to your opinions- as long as I can read them, I suppose. If you find me in error anywhere, please point it out. But so far, nothing you have said is new to me- and yes, predicting eruptions is something science has gotten much better at in the last 20 years. I suppose your point is that despite this, it is still not an absolute science, and unknowns remain- so we shouldn't depend on any given precursor. Roger. Most of the ATSers that follow this subject are aware of this by now.

JustMike, thanks for the compliments. I have learned some things from you too. And from everyone here. It is always a learning experience. I suppose the main differences between guys like PuterMan and muzzy and me is that they tend to stay in the statistical aspects, whereas I tend to stay more in the real time data.

TrueAmerican

westcoast
reply to post by Dianec

 

I think the key issue here, is that while it wouldn't really be necessarily a major deal, were it detected, most people don't realize that.

It seems to be the heralding call to doom and gloom, so I believe that is why TA wants to avoid discussing it.

Well I'd be happy to discuss harmonic tremor or volcanic tremor if either were present at YS, but they are not. The signatures at YMR are vehicle signatures, and I see them all the time. Every day. Just tired of pointing it out. Understand the seismic monitoring, where it is positioned, the likely propagation of various signals, and you too will see this for yourself.

Sageturkey is making the same mistakes I used to long ago. Yes, the signals appear similar to the USGS examples, but that happens all the time- there are lots of signals that appear similar. But now I have better tools, and easily avoid them. I put in my time. I studied hard. I made contacts. I acquired the tools. Because I was sick of not knowing the truth, and trying to rely on hearsay from doomists. Yeah, I might still be a doomist to a degree, but I try to balance that with solid information I can depend on. I did this so as to form a reliable buffer between us and scientists, who otherwise get pelted with trivial questions left and right from us. They get tired of answering them too, when they have already put the information out there, and most people are just too lazy to seek it out and learn for themselves.

So now speaking to all of you, not just westcoast- don't be "most people," and learn yourself, or simply ask one of us that has put in more time, and has acquired better tools. Once you study hard enough, you are then able to ask and phrase questions in such a knowledgeable way that will elicit responses from scientists, instead of no response at all. And even then, I still screw up (remember when I freaked over the waves from the 9+ in Japan being received at YS?) I just screw up a lot less, because of experience. There are so many things that register on extremely sensitive seismometers that deciphering through them really does require better tools- if you are going to do it quickly- and even then, some signatures at the edges of seismic station coverage can be extremely difficult to diagnose. And when we are talking a volcano as large as YS, all the more difficult.

Harmonic tremor is a particular type of volcanic tremor that exhibits dominant frequencies in equal multiples of a base, dominate frequency. An example of this is a signal that shows dominate frequencies of 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, 7.5, and 9 Hz. Notice the interval of 1.5 Hz in this case. They show up as repeating bands on a spectrograph. It is very hard to distinguish from a waveform alone, and at this point I would never trust the diagnosis of such a signal from anyone that does not have better tools than simple waveform data on a webicorder. So if all you are viewing is webicorder waveforms, in my opinion, you are not in a position to make a call on whether a tremor signal is harmonic, at all. So don't- plain and simple. Either study and learn how to convert seismic data, or ask one of us that can. At this point on ATS, PuterMan and I both have this ability, that I know of. I have reason to believe that because we use different tools, I may be able to do this slightly easier, but that is just conjecture- and it really doesn't matter.

What does matter though is what I actually see when I am monitoring YS with my rig. Please understand folks that I can make most assessments in seconds with it. I said most, and let me be clear: MOST, not ALL. I still am learning. There are still signatures that occur at the edges of the seismic station coverage that give me the willies sometimes, and I can't do a damn thing about them, or make heads or tails of them. At that point I have to defer to expert's opinions.

For example, what do you think when a signal occurs on the shortband component of seismic station, but not on the broadband component? Or when it occurs on the surface component, but not on the borehole component (in cases where both are co-located and present?) Or worse, when a portion of it occurs on both the shortband and broadband components? Is it telemetry error? Noise? Or is it possibly a shallow, low amplitude level, near-surface signal- a possibility which has been known to occur at certain volcanoes, even during eruptions?

Yes, this is complicated as crap. And that is a reason why there is such little patience to linger around and discuss these things with people like me, and probably you, who just get into observations from the periphery, and not go through the intense schooling necessary to really learn the science of it. I am guilty. Not schooled. The tools of a pro are in the hands of an amateur. But I learn daily. More and more. And make less and less mistakes as time goes on. And as long as my readers understand that, we're all good.

Also, more directly on topic of the current swarms: Update- swarms in lull, and all gone quiet again. Hope it stays that way for a while.

edit on Sun Oct 6th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

Thank you for such a great, in-depth answer. I didn't want to speak for you.

I too (as you well know) have jumped on the HT bandwagon MANY times over the years, before I came to understand the complexity of it. I think that when you start out 'skimming the surface' of the information out there, it can be very misleading. It takes some time (years) of looking at all the different meters, and types of signals before you even grasp that concept of the different frequencies.

My light bulb finally went on sometime last year that you can't even begin to look at it without different tools than are available to the general public on-line.

I also rely on you and Puterman when it comes to digging deeper, becuase I simply do not know how and can't do it.

I can speculate the heck out of anything, and I love nothing more than a good brainstorming session but I can't do much more than the basics when it comes to monitoring.

i need english lessons when im British ps i got dyspraxia so please ignore my spelling and grammer

A long-range correlation between earthquakes is indicated by some phenomena precursory to strong earthquakes. Most of the major earthquakes show prior seismic activity that in hindsight seems anomalous. The features include changes in regional activity rate and changes in the pattern of small earthquakes, including alignments on unmapped linear features near the (future) main shock. It has long been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by observable variations in regional seismicity. Studies on seismic precursors preceding large to great earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were carried out in the northeast India region bounded by the area 20°–32°N and 88°–100°E using the earthquake database from 1853 to 1988. It is observed that all earthquakes of M ≥ 7.5, including the two great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, were preceded by abnormally low anomalous seismicity phases some 11–27 years prior to their occurrence. On the other hand, precursory time periods ranged from 440 to 1,768 days for main shocks with M 5.6–6.5 for the period from 1963 to 1988. Furthermore, the 6 August, 1988 main shock of M 7.5 in the Arakan Yoma fold belt was preceded by well-defined patterns of anomalous seismicity that occurred during 1963–1964, about 25.2 years prior to its occurrence. The pattern of anomalous seismicity in the form of earthquake swarms preceding major earthquakes in the northeast India region can be regarded as one of the potential seismic precursors. Database constraints have been the main barrier to searching for this precursor preceding smaller earthquakes, which otherwise might have provided additional information on its existence. The entire exercise indicates that anomalous seismicity preceding major shocks is a common seismic pattern for the northeast India region, and can be employed for long-range earthquake prediction when better quality seismological data sets covering a wide range of magnitudes are available. Anomalous seismic activity is distinguished by a much higher annual frequency of earthquake occurrence than in the preceding normal and the following gap episodes.

A large number of seismic records are discovered for the first time in the historical materials about Wudalianchi volcanic group eruption in 1720–1721, which provides us with abundant volcanic earthquake information. Based on the written records, the relationship between earthquake and volcanic eruption is discussed in the paper. Furthermore it is pointed that earthquake swarm is an important indication of volcanic eruption. Therefore, monitoring volcanic earthquakes is of great significance for forecasting volcanic eruption.

reply to post by kezzy24


Umm, if you are going to copy and paste information, we require a source here at ATS, please. I'll do it for you this time, but in the future, you need to include the link, and enclose the copied portion in ex tags.

Here is the way you SHOULD have posted that, copied from the link I found your text at:

adsabs.harvard.edu...

A long-range correlation between earthquakes is indicated by some phenomena precursory to strong earthquakes. Most of the major earthquakes show prior seismic activity that in hindsight seems anomalous. The features include changes in regional activity rate and changes in the pattern of small earthquakes, including alignments on unmapped linear features near the (future) main shock. It has long been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by observable variations in regional seismicity.

Studies on seismic precursors preceding large to great earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were carried out in the northeast India region bounded by the area 20°-32°N and 88°-100°E using the earthquake database from 1853 to 1988. It is observed that all earthquakes of M ≥ 7.5, including the two great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, were preceded by abnormally low anomalous seismicity phases some 11-27 years prior to their occurrence. On the other hand, precursory time periods ranged from 440 to 1,768 days for main shocks with M 5.6-6.5 for the period from 1963 to 1988. Furthermore, the 6 August, 1988 main shock of M 7.5 in the Arakan Yoma fold belt was preceded by well-defined patterns of anomalous seismicity that occurred during 1963-1964, about 25.2 years prior to its occurrence.

The pattern of anomalous seismicity in the form of earthquake swarms preceding major earthquakes in the northeast India region can be regarded as one of the potential seismic precursors. Database constraints have been the main barrier to searching for this precursor preceding smaller earthquakes, which otherwise might have provided additional information on its existence. The entire exercise indicates that anomalous seismicity preceding major shocks is a common seismic pattern for the northeast India region, and can be employed for long-range earthquake prediction when better quality seismological data sets covering a wide range of magnitudes are available. Anomalous seismic activity is distinguished by a much higher annual frequency of earthquake occurrence than in the preceding normal and the following gap episodes.

Providing the link credits the source (required at ATS), and makes clear who the comments are coming from. I further broke it up into paragraphs for easier reading. But what this has to do with this thread about swarms at a super volcano is not clear to me. Perhaps you'd care to explain with your own comments.

the reason i think this is connected to super volcanoes is the fact it is a volcano and from many studies by many people have proven that super volcanoes can follow the same warning signs as normal volcanoes i know yellow stone is 1 of 19 vip volcanoes aka 19 volcanoes that are meant to be monitored at all times due to the fact a eruption from these vip volcanoes can cause so much damage and mortality they must monitored so they can save as many people as possible and there was once a magma sea millions of years ago before life that reached from china to Siberia and most my info comes from books and text books and a documentary u should watch is bbcs supervolcano