Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year

Things always seem to get a bit cool before they get hot, and things always seem to get a bit hot before they get cool. So yes you can say that the climate is changing, always was, always will, for as long as there will be a climate and atmosphere. That ice sheet is bigger then it was in 2012, but what does the comparisons stop there? what size was that ice sheep in august 2001? or in august 1980? I think that particular ice sheet depends from year to year. Now if there was no ice, or if it all of a sudden did not melt, or if it did not melt at all as the seasons changed, then we may need to worry.

But generally you can go by what you see and feel to get a vibe for the weather, and things have not been getting hooter or colder, its more like the weather has shifted places in some parts. That is were it usually was record cold its got a bit warmer, and were it was recorded hot its either now a bit cooler or even more hotter. So ya considering that has been going on for ever I would say we are always in a constant flux and change of such patterns which do not necessarily have to do with an over all global warming, but it could happen, but so could a global cooling.

reply to post by 727Sky


That was a good talk, much of what he said are things myself and others have been saying around here for quite a while now. I did a thread not too long ago on the jet stream actually. I'm glad to see there's an actual skeptic around these parts, even though we disagree. Thanks for sharing

ETA: I wanted to say also that climate scientists or scientists in general don't really give a crap about Al Gore, I'm sure some of them appreciate that he publicized the issue so thoroughly, but other than that the issue doesn't really involve him.

The science also doesn't deal much with taxing or cap and trade... some recommend those methods because they have proven to work in the past with acid rain and holes in the ozone layer. Personally I think suggesting those methods really backfired this time and gave way too much fodder for the fossil fuel industries, their think tank cronies and media outlet puppets to play with, the end result being that they profited from cap and trade and emissions continue to rise in other words we haven't gotten anywhere.

I think the only solution lies with wind, solar and hydro. But that means untying the world economy from oil, especially the US Dollar. So it's likely that by the time the misinformation campaign has no more legs to stand on, we'll either have nearly run out of oil or it will be too late and we'll have gone into runaway warming.

reply to post by Kali74

Not one scientist claimed we would be ice free by this summer. The standard estimate for ice free summers is 5-10 years.

Ice Free 2013

We speak to Wieslaw Maslowski about his prediction that by the summer of 2013, we will have completely lost ice cover in the Arctic. Dr. Maslowski says that the complete loss of summer ice may actually happen sooner. The concern we have at Beyond Zero Emissions is that without moving to near zero emissions and drawing down atmospheric carbon as soon as possible, this could cause the irreversible melt of Greenland leading to 5 metre sea level rises this century.

A proper scientist. Al Gore cited Maslowski's analysis in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony.

reply to post by talklikeapirat

Matthew Wright: Ok. So now, it was reported in The New York Times that you said that 2013 was a possibility, and perhaps you'd actually projected this some years ago, that we could lose the summer sea ice extent - that's in the summer solstice is it?

Dr Wieslaw Maslowski: That is correct. So the minimum in the Arctic ice extent has been typically occurring some time in September, between early September and late September every summer. So, the minimum of ice extent is simply defined as the ice edge of percentage roughly say between 15, maybe at 20%, ice cover. And then everything inside this ice edge position on the Atlantic side and on the Pacific side is considered to be the ice extent so it's not really concentration - it's just the area within the 15% or 20% ice concentration or more. And this ice minimum has been declining quite significantly. The global climate models have predicted, and your audience is probably familiar with this International Panel for Climate Change study, Annual Report IV that has been published and presented quite extensively this year, earlier this year in 2007, and actually the panel together with 'president' Al Gore have won the Nobel Prize nomination, so those studies from this panel, the multi-national climate simulation study have predicted the ice might be disappearing in summer, the northern summer in the Arctic, maybe sometime by the end of this 21st century.

There are some model simulations, single model simulations, that are suggesting that it could possibly occur as early as 2050 or maybe even as early as 2030. Comparing those models simulations predictions with the satellite observations of the Arctic sea ice extent actually shows that most of those models are too conservative predicting the current and the past ice extent changes in the Arctic as has been observed. So the idea is that the climate models - they're underestimating, they are too conservative in their prediction.

What our contribution, our study contribution to this overall topic is that we're saying that the satellite are only observing the 2-dimensional changes in the sea ice in the Arctic in terms of this ice extent. However, we do not have the observations of ice thickness - the third dimension, the vertical dimension - are very limited of the Arctic sea ice. And having those models that we used, we are able to look at the changes associated, not only with the ice extent, but also ice thickness and this way we can eventually calculate and try to understand the changes in the total ice volume in the Arctic. And our studies are suggesting that actually the volume and the thickness is decreasing even faster than the aerial observations from satellites. And this way we're saying that actually if we already have lost probably about 40% volume in the Arctic so far, if we project this trend ongoing for the last 10 - 15 years, we probably will reach zero in summer some time mid next century, mid next decade, I'm sorry.

Matthew Wright: So, there's been other projections from some glaciologists around 2020. So, somewhere in that range. You said 2013 in The New York Times where it was reported, but something between then and 2020 is very in the ballpark and a likelihood.

Dr Wieslaw Maslowski: It's interesting that the longer we wait and the more we see what is happening, what changes are happening in the Arctic, the sooner people start predicting those changes to completely melted ice in summer in the Arctic - as soon as in the next decade or so.

From your source...
Emphasis mine.

The only thing similar between the words would and could is that they rhyme.

And he's right an ice free summer could happen any year now.

So, lemme get this right...something that took nature millions of years to create is now 60% replaced in oh, say a decade? That sounds plausible....NOT!!

Certainly I could accept that a surface area 60% of it's "original" area could be frozen, but, it was thousands of feet thick in places.

What do we have now? Feet???

Please, tell me that there's swamp gas there too???

ctdannyd

Please, tell me that there's swamp gas there too???

Well actually, now you mention it .... yes!

www.bbc.co.uk...

reply to post by Kali74


You've spotted the 'pea'. I chose to quote Maslowski's interview with BZE on purpose, instead of the now infamous 2007 BBC article. Wadham and Maslowski were pretty certain back then, because their models said so. But this was before scientists started to understand that black soot, atmospheric circulations, even submarine vulcanic activity can have much greater effect on arctic sea ice than increasing temperatures alone.

Prof. Wadhams next due date is now 2015-2016. I believe we're seeing the beginning of a trend reversing with record global sea ice at around the same timeframe.

Final collapse of sea ice within four years

"This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates".

reply to post by xuenchen



This is the "Yin" (cool side of the mountain; dark energy) that the Maya carved about... It'll go back in another 72,000 yrs... "We", those who choose to incarnate and those who HAVE TO, will of course be in different bodies, just as "We" were when "We" originally carved it into the rocks...

The "Akashic Records" is now "easier" for ALL to access, "What was, What is, What will be", the same reason the snake swallows it's own tail. "We" are ALL eternal, there is NO EXIT! so,sew, SEE for YourSelf...

Happy Yom Kippur Shalom aleichem

namaste

reply to post by talklikeapirat

I believe we're seeing the beginning of a trend reversing with record global sea ice at around the same timeframe.

What makes you believe that?

reply to post by LewisStulePhD


Interesting.

Got any links to the ideas ?

Hard to follow your thinking.

Kali74
It didn't grow 60%.
The summer melt this year just didn't reach last year's record breaking melt season.

You might want to back this up with some hard data.

The 2012 winter was 4.6 Degrees C above average, across the North (5.9 above in the Northwest, 3.3 above in the Northeast).

There was also a substantial drop in precipitation over that period, in the North (around -30% over Canada's baseline data from 1961-1990...not quite sure why EnviroCanada uses that span as their 'average').

This was followed by an unusually hot summer, and a record setting heat wave that started in the end of July and ran through August.

I think we can safely rule out a poor 'melt'.

If anything, I think we are seeing an increase in ice do to a decrease in salinity.

reply to post by xuenchen


Google™ or Bing™ (Your choice) "Akashic Records" see if "it" is for You, "some can't handle the truth" isn't just a line from a movie... 'What was, What is, and What will be"

#1) make sure Your chakras are clear.

#2) "Pathway Prayer" (various found on the interweb. Linda Howe's version works for Me..)

#3) Fear not. (Be aware but not afraid)

#4) Have a nice trip and it helps to journal Your excursion.

This eliminates any of 'us' putting the 'other Self' in a position that either would want to find their Self. Just allow it to happen, a majority is "intention based" so You typing "interesting" and having the desire for more will lower the "veil" (J said it this way "seek and Ye shall find") |'ve noticed the less 'doubting/judging' the more |'m shown... This will allow for You to see for YourSelf, or "The Tao that can be told is not the eternal Tao" |'m unaware if 'personal messages' are allowed but You are most welcome, more than happy to help.

namaste

peck420

Kali74
It didn't grow 60%.
The summer melt this year just didn't reach last year's record breaking melt season.

You might want to back this up with some hard data.

The 2012 winter was 4.6 Degrees C above average, across the North (5.9 above in the Northwest, 3.3 above in the Northeast).

There was also a substantial drop in precipitation over that period, in the North (around -30% over Canada's baseline data from 1961-1990...not quite sure why EnviroCanada uses that span as their 'average').

This was followed by an unusually hot summer, and a record setting heat wave that started in the end of July and ran through August.

I think we can safely rule out a poor 'melt'.

If anything, I think we are seeing an increase in ice do to a decrease in salinity.

For one thing, and this is pretty basic, you wouldn't judge sea ice extent growth during the melt season it's ludicrous. Comparing sea ice maximums in January over the past several years would be the way to tell if there has been any growth. During the melt season (July-Sept) the only thing to talk about is melt... how much or how little sea ice melted.

About a million arctic graphs here

reply to post by Kali74

What makes you believe that?

Annual, decadal and multidecadal variability of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillation, the teleconnections between the two and the correlation or direct cause and effect mechanisms of solar activity on both oscillations.

There are many more papers than i've managed to read, identifying a correlation and/or a causal relation between either, solar activity and ocean/atmosphere-coupled oscillations or said oscillations and arctic sea ice.

Just a random sample, two studies and a sciencedaily article.

Top-down solar modulation of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation

Solar activity and tropospheric climate fluctuations

Winds, Ice Motion Root Cause Of Decline In Sea Ice, Not Warmer Temperatures

The Arctic Oscillation is a seesaw pattern in which atmospheric pressure at the polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The wind patterns associated with the Arctic Oscillation affect the surface winds and temperature over North America and Eurasia, as well as the Arctic.

The Arctic Oscillation was in an extreme "high," or positive, phase in the early '90s and is generally in a moderate phase today. Rigor and John M. Wallace, UW professor of atmospheric sciences, say the extreme high caused winds at the surface to circulate in ways that blew most of the thicker, older ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic.

If in the coming years solar activity will indeed remain way below average, science is in the unique postion to directly observe the effects the sun might have on all climate oscillations.

The way i see it, its already happening and things will cool down significantly - both the debate and Earth. I wonder what will come first.

_________________________________________________________________________________


NASA still believes the downward trend will continue, but they at least concede last year's record ice melt was in part due to unusual storm conditions.

NASA - continuing-downward-trend

“Last year’s storm went across an area of open water and mixed the smaller pieces of ice with the relatively warm water, so it melted very rapidly,” Meier said. “This year, the storms hit in an area of more consolidated ice. The storms this year were more typical summer storms; last year’s was the unusual one.”

ETA: For the record. The claim that sea ice extent has increased by 60% compared to last year is .... horse manure.

reply to post by talklikeapirat


Well I certainly hope you are right. I don't think I've ever wanted to be more wrong about something than wanting to believe I was wrong to think most climatologists are correct. Sadly I don't think it will be the case.

I'm really not sure, even if we were in some kind of recovery phase of a see-sawing effect, that solar impact on either oscillation can be accurately determined with albedo so low. Even diminished solar output will affect the arctic more strongly because more energy is being absorbed rather than reflected.

reply to post by xuenchen


Come 2014 the Earths entire coastal regions will be flooded, and sitting under 30 feet of water.

Or in 2014 the coastal areas will gain around 30 feet of extra land due to the global cooling freezing 60% more water at the poles.

Clear?

Good...now pay us our extortionate carbon taxes, slap another huge increase on domestic fuel and vehicle fuels..becuase of global warming, global cooling...errmm climate change.

Kali74
For one thing, and this is pretty basic, you wouldn't judge sea ice extent growth during the melt season it's ludicrous. Comparing sea ice maximums in January over the past several years would be the way to tell if there has been any growth. During the melt season (July-Sept) the only thing to talk about is melt... how much or how little sea ice melted.

About a million arctic graphs here

edit on 13-9-2013 by Kali74 because: (no reason given)

Oh, so before it was do to an unprecedented lack of melt, but when you get shown to be wrong in that, it is because it is a bad comparison period?

Move goal posts much?

The ice can be compared at any time, as long as the comparison is the same. As your chart compares it through every month...

You would have a point if they were comparing August to March, but they aren't.

As to your chart, it proves the OP's point.

The sea ice extent is significantly bigger in 2013 as it was in 2012...now why? The temperatures have not dropped, and 6 months ago they were predicting substantially less ice. So what has caused the sudden increase?

The Europeans claim that it is bigger, but thinner. Which is true, but they fail to mention that the thin ice is in areas that had no ice at this time last year.

Some claim it is because climate change is over, call it a day. I don't really buy that. Even if climate change was over it would take almost as long to go back as it did to get here.

That leaves one fairly logical answer, and it is not a good one...low salinity of the water. Easier to freeze in mild temperatures.

reply to post by peck420

Oh, so before it was do to an unprecedented lack of melt, but when you get shown to be wrong in that, it is because it is a bad comparison period?

What? I never said it was an unprecedented lack of melt, clearly there was still significant melt just not as bad as last years. How was I shown to be wrong exactly? The bad comparison lies simply in talking about growth during the melt season. You even agree with me, you just can't see that you do. It's pretty funny that you think because we stand on opposites sides of this issue that I must be wrong about everything.

Here's where you agree with me.

The sea ice extent is significantly bigger in 2013 as it was in 2012...now why? The temperatures have not dropped

Back to disagreeing...

and 6 months ago they were predicting substantially less ice. So what has caused the sudden increase?

I'm relatively confident they weren't predicting significantly less ice 6 months ago and again there was no sudden increase, just less melt/loss. I think most climatologists know that the ice free summer is rapidly approaching and last years melt almost was the 1st and that scared the crap out of everyone. I think by January though most of them realized 2013 wasn't going to be a repeat of last year.

The ice can be compared at any time, as long as the comparison is the same. As your chart compares it through every month...

You would have a point if they were comparing August to March, but they aren't.

My point stands specifically because I'm saying that comparisons should be made by month. I'm saying that growth should be measured during the winter, you can't measure growth during the melt season, you can only measure decrease. Is the extent larger this September than last September? Yes. Because less ice melted this year... that's not growth, it's less loss. Now looking at the graph and comparing winter extents tells us that sea ice extent was on par or slightly larger than last years winter extent, so yes there was some growth, but absolutely not 60%.

That leaves one fairly logical answer, and it is not a good one...low salinity of the water. Easier to freeze in mild temperatures.

You won't find much disagreement from me there. There is a lot of melt water coming out of the ice shelf (fresh water from the land ice), mind blowing amounts of it in fact, which of course stays sitting on top of the salt water and freezes much faster.

peck420

The sea ice extent is significantly bigger in 2013 as it was in 2012...now why? The temperatures have not dropped, and 6 months ago they were predicting substantially less ice. So what has caused the sudden increase?

The sea ic extent is significantly smaller in 2013 that it has been in most preceding years.

Last year was remarkable, in part due to unusual synoptics (the Great Arctic Cyclone) but in any case this year looks like seeing the 6th lowest sea ice extent on record. There has been NO increase.

In the same way that if your earn £100 and pay £50 in bills, then have to suddenly pay £80 in bills and then see a reduction to just £70 in bills, it means you are still paying more, not less ....

Oiy...

Kali, AM,

You guys aren't getting it.

Look very carefully at the chart Kali provided.

Notice that 2012 and 2013 were following the same path? That's right, the same path, all through winter (2012-2013), all through spring, and even well into summer...right until the end of July, 2013...

Environment Canada predicted this back in January. Their predictions were spot on until the end of July.

Then, the hottest recorded heat wave ever hit Canada's north.

The ice should have dropped to a level lower then 2012. All of the previous data says that it should have. All of the theoretical models say that it should have. We had almost identical ice size coupled with a hotter year...there should be less ice!

But, what has happened? For some unknown reason the ice melt has stagnated, and we currently have more ice then 2012, at this point in time.

It defies logic.

We, literally, just put an ice cube in an oven for 20 minutes, opened the door expecting to find a puddle of water, and found a smaller ice cube....