ISON-The Elephant In The Room

I appreciate the opinions of Phage, but I'm not too keen about Phage dominating this discussion with the attitude --- nothing will happen, guaranteed. If this is your average, common, garden variety comet, then what was all the "Comet of the Century" hype about in January? Was Brian Williams just horribly wrong when he said ISON could be brighter than a full moon and visible in daylight? Are those the properties of an average comet?

How can anyone be sure this comet will not break up into pieces large enough to cause damage to planets in the inner solar system? When or if ISON survives its close encounter with the sun, how can we be sure it will survive in one piece and not become like a shotgun blast? How do we know the trajectory will be just as predicted when and if it survives perihelion?

I'm not one who is convinced that this is a returning comet. Science is saying that this is ISON's first and probably only orbit through our solar system. I'm O.K. with that. The concerns about dust and gases in the tail are small, I think. What does concern me is whether ISON might break up and have relatively large pieces taking different trajectories than the predicted one for a surviving solid ISON.

We really can't be too worried about CMEs because these happen all the time and a "kill shot" could happen any time with or without a comet. What saves us from kill shots is that it would be extremely rare for a strong enough CME to come precisely in to hit us. Most CMEs miss us or produce glancing blows not strong enough to cause EMP.

So yeah, breaking up is what concerns me most and I really don't think anyone can say with certainty that ISON will not break up.

I'm trying to be reasonable about this. Phage is doing a very good job, as usual, of dismissing all concerns, but how is he so sure?

reply to post by caitlinfae

Leave phages personality out of this thread. He isn't the nicest person in the world... But he isn't mean. If you seriously are hurt by his posts... STOP SPOUTING NONSENSE. He calls people out on BS. And we need more ppl like him on this forum.

CONEDESTROYA
1014 AD - a swarm of cometary debris struck the Americas, it is thought to have ended the Aztec empire

????????

The Aztec empire was ended by Spain in 1521. The Aztec empire didn't even exist in 1014 AD.

Just Google it.

This is what I found of what you are trying to say:

"There are stone inscriptions of a great flood along the coast of Mexico and Central America in the early 11th century AD. It is possible that the Aztec legend of the death of the Fourth Sun originated in the cataclysmic events of 1014 AD. It is also possible the evolution of Quetzalcoatl's imagery of being a feathered serpent is linked to great comets as are the European myths about fire-breathing dragons."

www.accessgenealogy.com...

There is an explanation for what happened in the past with the other comets. It could be that there was a direct impact that covered the Earth's atmosphere with a layer of fine dust that reflected sunlight. That would be enough to cause clouds, lower world temperatures, and cause crop failure.

eee.uci.edu...

Later, people would recall other portents of the coming plague: unusual weather heavy mists and clouds falling stars hot wind from the South column of fire stood above the papal palace at Avignon ball of fire seen in skies above Paris earthquake in Venice chimed the bells of St. Mark's earthquakes in Naples, Rome, Pisa, Bologna, Padua

falling stars ... ball of fire seen in skies above Paris .... column of fire stood above the papal palace at Avignon, earthquakes in Naples, Rome, Pisa, Bologna and Padua, hot wind from the South

That sounds like an asteroid impact

Here are some of the Chinese comet drawings:

hua.umf.maine.edu...

Some of those shapes do look a bit "black trianglish" and circular UFO shaped. I really do wish it were possible to see what the original witnesses saw.

There was an event in the 500s and speculation it was caused by the veil of a comet. This is from Wikipedia:

"The extreme weather events of 535–536 were the most severe and protracted short-term episodes of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The event is thought to have been caused by an extensive atmospheric dust veil, possibly resulting from a large volcanic eruption in the tropics,[2] or debris from space impacting the Earth.[3] Its effects were widespread, causing unseasonal weather, crop failures, and famines worldwide. It has been conjectured that these changes were due to ashes or dust thrown into the air after the impact of a comet[13] or meteorite,[14][15] or after the eruption of a volcano (a phenomenon known as "volcanic winter")."

Sure would be fascinating to go back in a time machine with modern equipment and see what really caused this climate event. As far as I know there are theories but nobody knows whether it was an impact event or a volcano.

Sal

Comet Ison is Coming
Over the past decade, hundreds of sungrazing comets have been discovered, but they are usually small, short-lived, and only seen by spacecraft designed to observe the Sun. However, Comet ISON was discovered at the great distance of 6 AU (just beyond Jupiter's orbit), and the pre-discovery observations go back to more than 8 AU from the Sun! Because it was discovered so far away, the comet must be much larger, and therefore brighter, than the typical sungrazer. Currently, Comet ISON is faint, 16th magnitude in astronomy-speak, or 10,000 times fainter than the human eye can see. But it is brightening as it approaches the Sun. When it is near perihelion in late November, it may be possible to carefully(!) see in the daytime with the naked eye. It is this comet's intrinsic brightness and small perihelion distance that combine to make it so exciting.

Is 8 AU a normal distance to see a comet that has a nucleus of 2 or 3 kms? I didn't think they started outgassing until they hit the frost line around Mars?

reply to post by WhoDat09


Just watched that again.....don't forget Maximum Overdrive....although that comet did hide an alien ship.

reply to post by tinyDAWK


This is a highly speculative forum
people like phage, their reputation exceeds them sometimes, now, im not trying to offend so please no bicth fights, but the god like status of some residents, that try to kill healthy discussion because its not of their opinion is a joke,dont get me wrong I love his work and he probably is a really nice guy hey he might be even cia who knows?
go star your god!

reply to post by CONEDESTROYA


I stepped out of this thread a few pages ago, simply because bullies are best ignored, in any form, which is a shame, because it's a good thread. I'm still reading...and trying to skip the abusive parts!

Little Dawkins doesn't get that it's impossible to leave Phage's personality out of this discussion, because it basically tramples all over everything not aligned with his or her thinking, and it's tiresome to read a constant stream of no,no,no, you're wrong, you're spouting rubbish, no, that's incorrect, no, no, no...

Even the wildest and most improbable events have a place in any *speculative* discussion.

The fact is...it's ALL speculation when it comes to this kind of event. We THINK we know, but we don't really.

reply to post by caitlinfae

It is important to think out of the box we have been 'given' to think in. Only at the point that we step back and entertain all possibilities do we even begin to see reality as it might be rather than the picture painted for us.
Phage is fascinating to read but he has a tendency to knock on the head anyone who wants to peer over the edges of 'the box'. Me, i'm for kicking the box in and taking it down to the tip.

It is not necessarily a good thing to be a 'repeater of the given norm of knowledge' because so much is potentially hidden, perhaps deliberately inorder to obscure a clear understanding of the past and therefore make the future something we cannot anticipate.

reply to post by CONEDESTROYA


First you say "

im not trying to offend so please no bicth fights, but the god like status of some residents,

Then you follow up with a provocative statement, or demand... I duno.

go star your god!

god isn't the term I would use... Demigod, mabie all kidding aside. I don't know much about you, or phage, or anyone else on this site. As you can probably tell, I am still pretty new to ats. And i haven't made any friends here (only a couple enemies ) but if he has recieved a star from me it was due to the content he put on the table... Not out of worship, as you imply..

Even though I don't want to contribute to the derailment of this thread I do have one question for all of those people bad mouthing Phage. Name one time he has been wrong about something astronomical in nature. In fact you'd be hard pressed to to find any time he's been wrong. You bash him for always supporting the official story yet he's batting close to 1.000 while you people who always go with the speculative options have yet to hit it out of the park once.

On the topic of this thread... If you think ISON is anything other than a comet prove it. That's the great thing about astronomy. Anyone can take part. You can buy your own telescope, you can rent time on a telescope, or you can visit a local observatory. It's one thing to be an armchair theorist but I notice that very few people actually do the legwork to prove their theory. Phage can at least back up his claims with research. Can any of you claiming this is anything other than a comet say the same thing?

reply to post by Xcalibur254

You are right. of course ISON is a comet. I don't think anyone said it wasn't. of course Phage is right. No one said he isn't. But to be 'jumped on' for the difference between 'debris' and 'dust', that's just not necessary. I'm always interested in what Phage say, why not?

But, I remember when it was 'understood' by all and sundry ' there is no water in space' and now it is accepted that water and life be it large developed organisms or tiny little chaps exist everywhere in space.

Do you see where I'm going here?

The 'established understanding' changes so there is no point repeating it religiously as next year and the year after it will change again.

reply to post by Elliot

But, I remember when it was 'understood' by all and sundry ' there is no water in space' and now it is accepted that water and life be it large developed organisms or tiny little chaps exist everywhere in space.

I don't recall when it was understood that there was no water in space. The existence of water in the form of ice or vapor in places other than Earth has been known for a long time. There is also a very strong liklihood that liquid water exists on at least one moon of our gas giant neighbors.

I don't know that it is accepted that life exists everywhere in space. While the possibility of extraterrestrial life is accepted by many it has not been demonstrated to exist anywhere else but Earth, much less "everywhere in space". It is far from accepted that cometary material carries life.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Elliot

 

But, I remember when it was 'understood' by all and sundry ' there is no water in space' and now it is accepted that water and life be it large developed organisms or tiny little chaps exist everywhere in space.

I don't recall when it was understood that there was no water in space. The existence of water in the form of ice or vapor in places other than Earth has been known for a long time. There is also a very strong liklihood that liquid water exists on at least one moon of our gas giant neighbors.

I don't know that it is accepted that life exists everywhere in space. While the possibility of extraterrestrial life is accepted by many it has not been demonstrated to exist anywhere else but Earth, much less "everywhere in space". It is far from accepted that cometary material carries life.

edit on 9/7/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

water in Space,, how about BEER!



www.youtube.com...

An exploration of mysterious phenomenon, including alcohol clouds in space,,

Now if only there are, tobbaco clouds

Ok the thread is dead ,I still believe this comet is the start gun for the apocalypse what ever that maybe
Buckle up its about to get ruff

I was driving to the coast...and drove past ISON Ln on HWY 26 Oregon, USA

45.906963, -123.787482

+45° 54' 25.07", -123° 47' 14.94"

Originally posted by CONEDESTROYA
Ok the thread is dead ,I still believe this comet is the start gun for the apocalypse what ever that maybe
Buckle up its about to get ruff

The thread may seem slow, but it is being followed, some of us are just tired of defending ourselves.
The information is here, we read it, we contemplate on it and we quietly look further into it.

So please dont think you have wasted time

Love and harmony
Wjateva

Originally posted by Phage
[.[ When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast. (look it up)]

Must read Alice again, it has been years.

reply to post by tinyDAWK


BS eh?......What is BS imo is spouting a bunch of regurgitated data. That and sucking up. fnord H and HB comets did not light up the sky the way some have predicted ISON will. Some of the almanac data...........fnord