posted on Sep, 5 2013 @ 12:44 PM
I appreciate the opinions of Phage, but I'm not too keen about Phage dominating this discussion with the attitude --- nothing will happen,
guaranteed. If this is your average, common, garden variety comet, then what was all the "Comet of the Century" hype about in January? Was Brian
Williams just horribly wrong when he said ISON could be brighter than a full moon and visible in daylight? Are those the properties of an average
How can anyone be sure this comet will not break up into pieces large enough to cause damage to planets in the inner solar system? When or if ISON
survives its close encounter with the sun, how can we be sure it will survive in one piece and not become like a shotgun blast? How do we know the
trajectory will be just as predicted when and if it survives perihelion?
I'm not one who is convinced that this is a returning comet. Science is saying that this is ISON's first and probably only orbit through our solar
system. I'm O.K. with that. The concerns about dust and gases in the tail are small, I think. What does concern me is whether ISON might break up and
have relatively large pieces taking different trajectories than the predicted one for a surviving solid ISON.
We really can't be too worried about CMEs because these happen all the time and a "kill shot" could happen any time with or without a comet. What
saves us from kill shots is that it would be extremely rare for a strong enough CME to come precisely in to hit us. Most CMEs miss us or produce
glancing blows not strong enough to cause EMP.
So yeah, breaking up is what concerns me most and I really don't think anyone can say with certainty that ISON will not break up.
I'm trying to be reasonable about this. Phage is doing a very good job, as usual, of dismissing all concerns, but how is he so sure?