posted on Nov, 14 2004 @ 12:27 AM
I know this is a little long, but I've often had positive reactions to my geo-strategic insights, so I figured that roughly half of you wouldn't
Everyone has been talking about a war on America as if it must begin immediately on American soil and the invasion must take place by total surprise
within hours of war being declared. This is a fallacy in direct contradiction of most historical examples.
A likely invasion of the United States would probably have several of the following traits:
1. It would be a reaction to a threat or percieved threat from America, because war on America is far too costly to persue for no reason. For this
reason the war would begin overseas.
2. There would be a slow escalation involving a great deal of diplomacy, especially if China or Russia were the adversary, because NATO must be
persuaded to stay out.
3. The strategic positioning of land based aircraft and the defeat of American submarine forces would be vital in order to take the war onto the
4. The goal would be to damage America's military might and install an American government under the supervision of the UN, because the subjecting
America to a foreign government would be a long, costly, and ultimately pointless. It follows that the enemy goal is to destroy a large amount of US
Military hardware and capture or kill a large number of US leaders without fighting a protracted war for territorial gains. In short, only the eastern
US must be captured, and it need not be totally controlled.
The following is a hypothetical war between China/Russia and America.
Week 1: North Korean submarines are found on missile patrol on the American coast. Korea admits it and demands bi-lateral talks and a Non Agression
Week 2: The US simultaneously destroys all N.K. missle subs while launching airstrikes from 2 carrier groups and land bases. The attacks destroy key
supplies and nuclear sites to prevent immediate retaliation.
Week 3: The US moves in additional forces while North Korea mobilizes for war. The world demands an immediate pull-back of both sides.
Week 4: China offers to act as a separating force- France, Germany, Russia, and South Korea all agree. No fly and no sail zones surround the
peninsula. American forces do not pull back but play cat-and-mouse with the Chinese.
Americans only back off in the face of Su-27s, 30s, or J-10s. Several older Chinese aircraft are destroyed. Russia sends Su-27s and 30s with pilots to
Week 5: A chinese sub gets too close to an American carrier and is destroyed. Chinese aircraft sink the carrier. American missile subs approach China
and the missile shield is tested. Carriers pull back and landbased aircraft take over. US subs begin to sink Chinese vessels.
Week 6: China's mandate is re-affirmed by the UN, including every member of NATO. America calls the votes of allies "a betrayal". China's
government resolves that all-out war in inevitable, and that war on Chinese soil is unacceptable- the fight must go to America.
Chinese military hardware and troops are smuggled into Cuba and the Bahamas in freighters. The Chinese know military movements to ports will be seen,
so they intentionally allow "mistakes" which show the Americans that the supplies being sent are primarily outdated equipment for Cuban use and air
defenses. The slow buildup of Chinese power in the Carribean will continue for months, underestimated by the Americans.
Week 7: China appeals heavily to the international community that America-specifically George Bush- is out of control and must be restrained
diplomatically as soon as possible. It has been 3 weeks since China has shown aggression, or even defended itself to its full capability- small
surface ships are intentionally allowed to be sunk to create sympathy.
Week 8: China continues to avoid offensive moves but makes progress in defending against the American attack subs. China, Russia, France, Germany, and
many middle eastern nations embargo America, and it is suggested that America could be suspended from the UN security council, which would pave the
way for punitive resolutions. Iraq and Kuwait continue to sell oil to America.
Week 9-17: Iranian troops, acting on a secret agreement with China, overrun the small US force remaining in Iraq and sieze southern Iraqi and Kuwaiti
oil fields- but dare not go near the Turkish border in Northern Iraq. China negotiates for profits from oil sales to remain in the hands of Iraq and
Kuwait, on the condition that China will buy all of the oil produced.
China launches air raids targeted at fuel supplies in the west pacific region and at oil infrastructure and port facilities in Alaska to limit
American oil production. China increases provokation of American air forces in the region to cause greater fuel consumption.
Cuba announces a blockade of the gulf of Mexico with a hand full of aircraft and diesel subs purchased from China. They are not fully able to
implement it, but the high demands on US forces ultimately do make it necessary for shipping to re-route away from the gulf whenever possible.
Week 18-26: Combined Chinese and Russian forces invade Alaska and create airbases there to ensure control of the North Pacific. The Chinese launch a
massive air raid on nations hosting American forces in the West Pacific, destroying aircraft and ships to keep those forces from entering the fight.
The Chinese suffer heavy losses to older aircraft types in the Alaskan campaign and progress is slower than expected due to climate. Nevertheless
their victory over the relatively small American force is assured.
Canada and Britain cease their neutrality and begin selling fuel to America in huge quantities. British, American, and Canadian troops rush to defend
the Rocky Mountains in the Yukon territory. It is believed that the Chinese will commit additonal troops and attempt a rapid breakthrough to the
flatter ground and abundant highways of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to pour into the American mid west. America is confident that the advance will be
ill-coordinated and an easy upset America's superior implementation of combined arms and manuever warfare, but the invasion doesn't come.
Week 27-33: The Russian Navy announces an excercize in the North Atlantic. The goal is to test the readiness of their fleet, which has been refitted
and readied for action for the last 3 months. America sees this as a direct threat against their East Coast by Russia and perhaps what China has been
waiting for. Additional US forces are committed to the North-central region. Air and naval defenses are concentrated in the North Atlantic to deter
Week 34-40: The Chinese and Russian forces in Alaska have not entered any cities and are allowing supplies in. Britain encourages the prospect of
peace talks, as do most nations. Although upset, even some Americans suspect that this has all been a humiliating misunderstanding. The Pentagon sees
this as an indication that a forcible retaking of Alaska can be undertaken without falling into any sort of trap. American forces advance and begin
probing the Chinese defense of the Alaskan Range, hoping to liberate Anchorage by force before going into peace talks.
Week 41-50: After almost 11 months of military buildup in the Carribean, Chinese troops who have been hiding in cramped quarters for months emerge and
begin exercises and preparations for combat. Chinese aircraft and conventional short range missiles unleash a tremendous assault on the skeleton of a
defense which guards Florida. Chinese troops reinforce positions in Alaska and cross the Pacific heading for the southern part of British Columbia,
protected by Chinese air cover operating from Alaska. Chinese forces will land, but success is in no way certain. The North Western front is for the
men on the ground to decide at this point.
The second prong of the assault will develop further:
Week 51-54: Despite losses in the crossing, Chinese mechanized forces land in Southern Florida and proceed North, destroying oil infrastructure and
military forces as they rapidly advance without attempting to secure population centers. They stop and form their lines on favorable terrain (probably
rivers) in southern Georgia while they move their air support and supply lines forward.
US Marines make an amphibious landing in their rear with the goal of destroying Chinese air support and supplies. If they are entirely successful, the
Chinese will likely be destroyed and the war will be confined to the Northern Front. If they fail, the Southern Front will be decided not in Florida
but in the Carolinas. At this point, this front as well is in the hands of the men on the ground.
After Week 54:
The full commitment of Russian Forces to the North Atlantic would be disasterous. Britain stands in the way of this, but consequently can not fully
commit to the war in North America.
The choke on American oil can not be ignored indefinately. America's best hope is that the international community will not wish to see this war
through to America's destruction, and will begin selling oil to them.
The next best hope is that some NATO countries (including Turkey) will secure by threat or force the neutrality of some Arab nations. Alternately,
America may sponsor the formation of an pan-arab superpower by giving withdrawing support for Israel and giving nuclear weapons to a friendly moderate
in the region (Egypt or Saudi Arabia).
If the war is at a stalemate for too long, America and allies may attempt to develop oil sources and bases of operation in the South Pacific with the
goal of creating a front in Southern China. Although the resources to invade all of China would not be available, a foothold in southern China would
provide the protection and support necessary for India and Japan to consider joining the war on the US side.
The nuclear issue could also come up in a long war scenario. The longer a war rages on American soil, the more the balance tips against America. There
are several scenarios for nuclear strikes- obviously I can't cover them all:
1. America develops a defense against ICBMs and launches limited strikes which make it impossible for China to continue the war. They offer favorable
terms for peace and shoot down the limited Chinese retaliation.
2. America uses a single nuke to break the Chinese lines, exploits the opening and makes major advances in the war, gambling that China will accept
peace before they start a cataclysmic nuclear war. This may or may not work, and America would have to be very desperate to try it.
3. Israel uses nukes to complete a conquest of the Middle East and shuts off the oil tap on China. The effect on the war is smaller and more gradual
so a nuclear retaliation is unlikely. China must weight a conventional retaliaiton against the fact that it takes away from the main war effort as
well as risks further nuclear attacks by Israel.
4. America launches a saturation attack on China and uses EMP devices or other weapons to destroy everything launched in retaliation. The problem is
that Russia and even France may feel obligated to ensure that America pays for its actions.
Ultimately, this would be one of two things: a fast and shocking victory for one side or the other which would completely redefine the art of war, or
the most intense and bloody war in world history. I can't say who would win- war is all about friction and inertia: how well prepared and how clever
is each side? Who makes more mistakes and who does a better job of exploiting them? Who knows how long it could drag out or how quickly one side or
the other could gather momentum?
At the end of this one China will probably never want to fight a war again- even if they were the winners.
If America was a normal nation they wouldn't either, but Americans are warlike people- we'd probably just come out wanting to gear up and whip arse
on every small nation that snubbed us in our hour of need.