Folks - Let us examine the evidence that anti-smokers have that "proves" that smoking CAUSES oral-pharangeal cancers.
For this evidence, I will turn to the Surgeon General's Report of 2004, specifically page 67 of Chapter 2
Numerous epidemiologic studies provide consistent evidence that cigarette smokers experience a higher incidence of or mortality from cancers of the
oral cavity and pharynx than do lifetime nonsmokers. The average risk among persons who currently smoke and have smoked only cigarettes is
approximately 10-fold higher in men and 5-fold greater in women compared with lifetime nonsmokers. Incidence and mortality rates increase with the
number of cigarettes smoked per day and decrease with years since smoking cessation.
All forms of tobacco use (cigarettes, pipes, cigars, snuff, chewing tobacco, betel, and other smoked and smokeless products) increase the occurrence
of premalignant lesions and malignant transformations of cells of the tissues of the oral cavity and pharynx, which have the most direct contact with
the tobacco, the smoke, or their dissolved constituents.
Eliminating the exposure causes most premalignant lesions to regress and reduces the incidence and recurrence of and mortality from invasive cancers
of the oral cavity and pharynx. Extensive series of studies have documented genetic changes in the epithelium of smokers, even before the development
of malignancy. There are increasing genetic alterations in the sequence from premalignant lesions to malignancy.
Experimental studies in animals cannot precisely replicate human exposures to cigarette smoke, yet the topical application or local injection of
tobacco carcinogens induces premalignant leukoplakia in rabbits and oral cavity cancers in hamsters.
Conclusion 1. The evidence is sufficient to infer a causal relationship between smoking and cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx. Implications
Cigarette smoking, like other forms of tobacco use, is a major cause of cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx in the United States and worldwide.
Together, smoking and alcohol account for most cases in the United States and elsewhere. Reductions in smoking (cigarettes, pipes, cigars, and other
tobacco products) and in the use of smokeless tobacco could prevent most of the approximately 30,200 new cases and 7,800 deaths from these cancers
that occur annually in the United States and the much larger burden of these cancers worldwide
Now what does "infer a causal relationship" mean?
Chapter 1, Page 24
Inferences, whether about causality or statistical associations, are always uncertain to a degree. The goal of this report, as in all previous ones,
is to explain and communicate scientific judgments as to whether ob - served associations between smoking and disease are likely to be causal, based
on the totality of scientific evidence.
You can read Chapter 1 for yourself but it is clear that the Surgeon General NEVER said that smoking CAUSES oral-pharangeal cancers. What he said was
the totality of the evidence is sufficient to infer causality.
And what is the sum total of this evidence. Well, essentially that some studies of samples of populations (not the whole world and subject to bias)
showed that smokers have a markedly higher incidence of oral-pharangeal cancers. Oh and if you paint the mouths and throats of animals with tar from
burnt tobacco, then pre-cancerous lesions will develop (I don't know of any smokers that do that, do you?) and by the way - there is absolutely no
need to treat oral-pharangeal cancers because if you stop smoking, the lesions will regress all by themselves.
But and this is a very big but....then why do non-smokers develop oral-pharangeal cancers? And exactly how did they account for the other risk
factors? Is it possible that smokers, as a group, are subjected to other risks that non-smokers aren't subjected to as much?
Let us now turn to the American Cancer site on oral-pharangeal cancers.
Doctors and scientists can’t say for sure what causes each case of oral cavity or oropharyngeal cancer.
In short, every case of oral-pharangeal cancer looks like every other case. There is no physical way of saying what exactly caused the cancer. And
how many risk factors are there?
Well I count at least 14 of them and remember that each can work synergistically with the other:
So now let us look at what is happening in the world. This link is for Canada but the same thing is happening in the United States and the UK.
And the US
So it is very very clear that what is happening is a global increase in the incidence of oral-pharangeal cancers, especially in men!
Now I am a reasonable person and it is reasonable to conclude that if you remove the thing that you think is causing a disease, then logically, the
rate of incidence of that disease should decrease.
The rate of male smoking in the population has been decreasing since 1965 (that is almost 60 years ago). The rate of smoking in men decreased over 60
years from about 75 % to less than 30 %. That is a decrease of 45 %.
But somehow the rate of oral-pharangeal cancer is INCREASING.
So the article is inferring that oral-pharangeal cancers are now CAUSED by the HPV virus, and this is only just now happening because of men having
more oral sex (are they attacking gay men here) and that somehow the existance of HPV only started in the 1980s and that as a result more young people
are getting oral cancers.
This is all somehow different than the oral cancers caused by smoking.
I smell a very very big RAT here!
Oral sex is NOT new. The HPV virus is NOT new and according to the SEER data of Centers for Disease Control, the average age of death from
oral-pharangeal cancers is still 67.
From 2006-2010, the median age at death for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx was 67 years of age
4. Approximately 0.1% died under age 20; 0.7% between 20 and 34; 3.0% between 35 and 44; 13.9% between 45 and 54; 25.1% between 55 and 64; 23.9%
between 65 and 74; 21.2% between 75 and 84; and 12.0% 85+ years of age.
according to this data, approximately 82.2 % of oral-pharangeal cancers still occur in people between the ages of 55 to 85!
The possibility that cancer could be caused by a virus is fairly new and only started being explored in the mid-1970s. They have yet to identify all
the strains of HPV that can cause cancer. I believe that it will only be a matter of time until they identify all the strains that cause
Fellow ATSers - I believe what we have here is a conspiracy by the Public Health community to continue with the myth that tobacco CAUSES
oral-pharangeal cancer. That all along, they were wrong and that somehow, oral-pharangeal cancers that occur today are somehow different.
on 8/8/2013 by AshleyD because: Mod Edit: Removed All Caps Title.