NASA :The Sun's Magnetic Field is About to Flip

Originally posted by nOraKat

Originally posted by NotAnAspie
I don't know but it will effect us all. Just look at how weird the social vibe has been since it flipped in 01 and compare that the the previous 11-12 years.

Maybe this means I will revisit a rebellious party-phase in my life again like I did in the 90s... WOOOOO HOOOO. PARTAY!

Oh wait, I gotta first find some decent new people to party with because the people I used to party with got negatively polarized in the last half of the last change and I went in the opposite direction... so we're not there yet, are we?

HURRY UP AND FLIP DAMMIT!

Im ready for something completely different.

That's funny you mention that because the same thing happened to me. I don't know if it happened coincident with the flips but a definite era occurred around 01' where the vibe of the people around me - friends, family just flipped (not in a good way).

It's like I entered the twilight zone..

You have no idea how many people I have heard say that. Looking back, the timeframe is kinda strange... as was the late 80s, but not exactly the same weird vibe in the air. Just both notably strange.

What I would like to know is what happens every 11 years to make this happen?

Is it an internal thing, or something external like a gravitational pull, or space magnetism coming from something, somewhere?

Every 11 years,... never 10, or 12?

reply to post by Toadmund

Every 11 years,... never 10, or 12?

Sometimes ten, sometimes eleven, sometimes twelve. An average of 11. The "flip" occurs around the time of Solar maximum.
en.wikipedia.org...

Originally posted by Toadmund
What I would like to know is what happens every 11 years to make this happen?

Is it an internal thing, or something external like a gravitational pull, or space magnetism coming from something, somewhere?

Every 11 years,... never 10, or 12?

Its an average of 11 years.

Been observed to last up to 14 and as little as 9 years if I remember right.


But the average is every 11 years


Quite it will ya Phage, I already got accused of stalking the other day by another poster, now in two threads your prompt reply has been the same as my slow goofy replies before I get to your posts .

Originally posted by Toadmund
What I would like to know is what happens every 11 years to make this happen?

Is it an internal thing, or something external like a gravitational pull, or space magnetism coming from something, somewhere?

Every 11 years,... never 10, or 12?

There is only speculations, but after observing it some time, scientists have noticed that solar cycle lasts approx. 11 years. Might be caused by tidal forces of Jupiter and Saturn, solar inertial motion, or solar jet streams "torsional oscillation". Sun is very complex and its hard to know what "magics" happen inside it. In 2001 we didn't have good enough telescope to monitor Sun, but now we have SDO and its observing capabilities are much better than good old SOHO's. First time ever we see in HD (4K actually) when Sun's magnetic field changes.

Originally posted by fedeykin
One thing I don't understand is this:

When the polarity shift on the sun happens, it happens rapidly.

The official theory of how the polarity shift on Earth happens, is that it happens slowly over many years.

There seems to be a disconnect here. Since I am too busy to do research on this, I'll throw the question out here.

If the sun can switch from today to tomorrow, why not the earth?

Anyone have an answer for this question?

reply to post by jaws1975

The Sun doesn't really have a magnetic field like the Earth. It has a lot of magnetic fields. When it is said that the magnetic field of the Sun "flips" what is means is that the general magnetic alignment changes.

Before the "flip" the "north pole" of the Sun has a mostly "north" magnetic orientation but there still is some south in there. After the "flip" (which is a process more than an event), the south orientation beats the north (the south shall rise!).

Why it happens is not really known but the source of the Sun's magnetic field(s) is the plasma currents within it. These currents are much more fluid that the "magneto" which creates the Earths more truly bipolar (north-south) field.

Here's a representation of the magnetic fields of the Sun now. Not like Earth's nice neat magnetosphere at all.
sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


Thanks Phage!

Originally posted by flipflop
reply to post by jjkenobi

 

Superpowers granted! hair growth, is just pushing it too far...

... UNLESS- that supeppower is the ability to grow hair on things, which in this case I'm assuming would be a head. You could be known as the superhero Hair Raiser, eh? Amirite? Know what I'm sayin'? haha... woo!

*sound of crickets riding a tumbleweed* (plagiarized line right there)

The magnetic field of the sun is due to change its polarity before the end of 2013, reports space.com. According to NASA-backed observatories, the event, which happens once every 11 years, will occur sometime in the next three to four months. The sun’s magnetic field flips at the apex of its 11-year solar cycle, which is also the midpoint in the sun's “solar maximum,” the peak of its solar weather cycle, according to the website.

“This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system,” he told the website. NASA officials explained that during the shifting of the magnetic field, a surface radiating billions of kilometers out from the sun’s equator, known as the “current sheet,” becomes very wavy. The Earth dips in and out of the waves of the current sheet as it orbits the sun and the transition from a wave to a dip can create stormy space weather around our planet, NASA officials told the website.

Source

For those using DirecTV or satellite type connections, switch to a cable connection while you can!

If a satellite is hurt, no more internet connection for you....no more ATS for you for a while!

Originally posted by fedeykin
One thing I don't understand is this:

When the polarity shift on the sun happens, it happens rapidly.

The official theory of how the polarity shift on Earth happens, is that it happens slowly over many years.

There seems to be a disconnect here. Since I am too busy to do research on this, I'll throw the question out here.

If the sun can switch from today to tomorrow, why not the earth?

The sun is made from liquid and gas and has a far stronger magnetic field, so the atoms can just realign themselves. The earth is made of magnetized rock in a semi-liquid state, so it takes much longer to change.

3, 2, 1 EVERYBODY PANIC!!!


I'm pretty sure this happens every so often. About to read the article.

ah its not the flip that im worried about, its the small solar cycle (smallest solar cycle in 100 years), just hope it doesn't herald a 'Maunder minimum'

May cycle 25 be a spotty one

Would'nt mind some reassurance from Phage about this,

reply to post by Lady_Tuatha



Since Phage is busy cheerleading for GMO's, i'll give it a try.

The only truly honest answer is, nobody knows for sure. Essentially, there are two questions, both can only be answered by applying a probability function.

Currently, all signs point to a strong possibility that the next sunspot cycle will be an even smaller one, in terms of solar activity. With one caveat.

Though the sun is currently in the peak year of its 11-year solar weather cycle, our closest star has been rather quiet over all, scientists say. This year's solar maximum is shaping up to be the weakest in 100 years and the next one could be even more quiescent

The polar fields have been slowly reversing at this maximum, Hathaway said, suggesting that they are not going get much stronger during Cycle 24. This also sets the stage for an even smaller maximum during Cycle 25, scientists believe.

- See more at: www.space.com...

The caveat.

Solar cycles -

Solar activity is variable with six well-determined quasi-periodicities. Attempts to theoretically describe the solar dynamo have so far succeeded only in explaining the qualitative aspects. They fail in a numerical description and notably in one that would permit one to forecast solar activity with acceptable precision.

This is so because the solar dynamo is a non-linear system that occasionally shows phase catastrophes. It is a quasi-periodic engine with the properties of deterministic chaos.

As to the question, what exactly are the effects of Grand Solar Minima on Earth's climate, and specifically global temperature, uncertainty is even greater. This is mainly so for two reasons.

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem.

and ...

Devices currently used to measure total solar irradiance (TSI) reduce the entire sun to a single number: the total luminosity summed over all latitudes, longitudes, and wavelengths. This integrated value becomes a solitary point in a time series tracking the sun’s output.[...]

But; The sun is not a featureless ball of uniform luminosity. Instead, the solar disk is dotted by the dark cores of sunspots and splashed with bright magnetic froth known as faculae. Radiometric imaging would, essentially, map the surface of the sun and reveal the contributions of each to the sun’s luminosity.

Therefore ...

Solar forcing

Studies based on a supposed unique global variation of temperature or pressure variations, to be characterized by one unique
T(time)-curve, valid for the whole Earth’s surface, are likely to fail. Reliable material, observational as well as theoretical, is now available for allowing one to search for the solar signal in the observed terrestrial temperature distribution in latitude, longitude and height.

Right now, scientists can only project future scenarios based on what they know. In short, we'll have to wait and see. Buying warm underwear or moving to the tropics might be an option (just in case).
Hope i could help.

reply to post by talklikeapirat


Thanks

Yeah its pretty much a guessing game at the moment, will be interesting to see what happens. I suppose buying some thermals would'nt harm

This happens every 11 years, and I thought we were going into a minimum. I know its either in solar max or min but also thought the flipping of poles is what started this process each cycle. Maybe I read too much junk and this is where the confussion lies but we've evidently been heading for solar max for the past 3 years (hype on this), or are in a solar max at any given time. All I'm reading now is that "were already in one (a solar maximum)", and its a quiet one. So wouldn't the pole reveral begin the minimum?

Originally posted by Lady_Tuatha
ah its not the flip that im worried about, its the small solar cycle (smallest solar cycle in 100 years), just hope it doesn't herald a 'Maunder minimum'

May cycle 25 be a spotty one

Would'nt mind some reassurance from Phage about this,

The Maunder Minimum occurred during the Little Ice Age when the N Hemisphere was already experiencing colder than 'normal' average temps. At present, we're experiencing a long run of warmer than 'normal' temps across the whole planet. The worst that could happen would be for global warming to temporarily stop so that each year wasn't consistently within the top 10-15 ever recorded - and maybe it'd get as cold as it was in the 60s and 70s. It would not be anything like as cold as in the 17th century, simply we'll be at a much warmer start point.

(and please, lets not turn this into an AGW thread )

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

Just a few things that happened in 2002.

Even the BBC have mentioned the sun's magnetic field flip, seeing as how solar scientists expect it to occur over the next few weeks...

www.bbc.co.uk...

An event of this scale with such far-reaching effects is bound to raise questions in the disquieted minds of a number of people whom may tie the reversal to strong effects on earth. Some may think that the reversal is connected to a possible maunder minimum (little ice age), but before I go into some thoughts on that, I think it would be helpful to discuss - in a general sense, some of the dynamic aspects of the sun.

As you know the sun is not a solid mass, it is a giant radiating ball of gas and plasma comprised of three layers: the core; a radiative zone; and a convection zone (there are other layers within layers). The core is where the creation of all the star's radiative energy is made, photons carry the energy away from the core through the radiative zone to the convection zone, taking a very long time to do so.

Once at the convection zone, gases speed up the process of radiation, think of a pan of boiling water bubbling away, each bubble giving a 'granulated' effect to the sun's surface. The sun's surface spins at different rates. The whole sun does not spin homogeneously like the earth, from North to South the sun's surface is latitudinally layered with each layer spinning slower than the preceding one from the equator to the poles. It takes the sun's equatorial region to make one revolution approximately 25 days, whereas at its poles it can take around 35 days...this is called differential rotation.

Sunspots are regions of great magnetic activity that inhibit convection at the surface, and come in pairs of different north/south magnetic polarity. One way of thinking about sunspots is as weather storms on the sun's surface, like hurricanes here on earth. When the solar cycle begins after the solar minimum, sunspots appear at the polar regions of the sun and move towards the sun's equatorial region at solar maximum. Sunspot activity has an 11 year cycle ranging from solar minimum (when few or no sunspots are produced) to solar maximum (when more sunspots are produced). The sun's surface has a temperature of 5780 K, but sunspots are cooler regions, between 3000 to 4500 K. The cause of these solar cycles and why the sun has them is still not understood.

The sun has a magnetic cycle of 22 years in which magnetic pole reversal occurs approximately every 10 to 11 years or so (plus or minus 3 year potential variability).

Our concern with the sun is due to our planet's biosphere's dependence upon its life-supporting radiation. The sun drives our climate and weather, and all life forms (including man) depend on the sun's light and heat for their continued existence. Our planet orbits the sun (with the sun's level of radiative force) at just the right distance (93 million miles) called the 'goldilocks' orbit which seems optimal for life to exist. If our planet's orbit were closer, it would be too hot for a biosphere to have formed, and if it were further away, it would be too cold for one.

Our sun is classed as a yellow dwarf, but will one day become a red giant once it has fused all its hydrogen store into helium, at which point it will begin fusing heavier elements and begin to expand. It's expansion will swallow up and utterly annihilate all three inner solar system planets, Mercury, Venus, and Earth, then it will undergo pulsations of mass ejection until it finally ejects its outer layer in one massive ejection to become a white dwarf star.

www.youtube.com...

Of course, the earth's biosphere and life forms will have been destroyed quite earlier, long before actual expansion into a red giant begins, due to the changing solar activity making conditions on earth intolerable for the biosphere and life forms. If our species wants to survive we have to leave the planet and the solar system eventually.

Coming back to the present, our initial concerns are more focussed on climate issues, and the detected unusual trend the sun is currently displaying...sunspot activity has been far quieter and ongoing longer than predicted. Our planet is bathed in solar radiation everyday. It accepts this radiation and re-radiates some of it back into space. This radiation relationship is the earth's solar energy balancing act. Many other variables play a part in this energy budget such as clouds; their altitude, density, chemical composition, and distribution around the planet and the cover they give; ice at the polar regions giving reflective capacities dependent on how much ice covers the land sea; oceans and seas that act as heat sinks, all these variables and more play a part in how solar radiation is dealt with by our planet. It is a fragile balancing act that can easily be disrupted, with a domino cascade of differing effects both globally and regionally.

Is there a correlation between low or no sunspot activity, low solar output, and colder climates experienced on earth?

It has been found that the sun does go into extended periods of low or no sunspot activity, and that although the intensity of solar radiation has been relatively constant for the last 2000 years, with a variability of just 0.1/0.2%, the earth still underwent enough variability in climate that at certain times in history, made it very uncomfortable for life forms. One such period was the Maunder Minimum 1645 to 1715 (named after the English husband and wife astronomer team Edward and Annie Maunder), and at that time we didn't have man-made activity inducing theorised effects upon the climate.

The Maunder Minimum coincided with an extended lull in sunspot activity. Is there a correlation or was it just coincidence. Modern solar scientists were expecting (and predicted) more sunspots than have been recorded for the current cycle (no:24), and are now thinking that cycle 25 may also continue the lull in sunspot activity. Other named lulls of sunspot activity in history where low temperatures were recorded was the Wolf period (1280 to 1350) and the Spörer Minimum (1460 to 1550), followed by the Maunder Minimum.

Perhaps we are now, or have, entered a phase of extended low or no sunspot activity, and that over the coming years we will see and experience gradual and consistent climate temperature reductions? Winters will not only be more harsh and colder, but themselves extended?