US plans to bring Iran oil exports down to zero (No, Seriously, read this)

reply to post by GargIndia


GargIndia, I'm sending you a P.M. that is from one specific (paid) newsletter, most of these can't be "googled" .

It's not much, but there's much more out there covering the subject of China's economy. The future is not bright for their economy from what I can see.

With discretionary spending dropping almost daily, world-wide, the major exporter of goods directed to that market is in deep doo doo.

reply to post by nwtrucker


Couldn't you make it available to all of us or would the newsletter guys hunt you down and sue you for disseminating their newsletter for free?

reply to post by TheLaughingGod


Good point. The author of the newsletter is a friend of mine. I suppose he won't mind.

The newsletter covers a lot subjects and has highly technical info in it. Most wouldn't understand much of it. Frankly, I don't, either. LOL.

The China reference is on page 21. It isn't very detailed and is quoting another well known newsletter.

A bit of background info for those who aren't familiar with newsletters.

Most of the newsletter authors send their letters to the authors of the other letters for free, this allows them to get data sources that they might have missed and ensure that they haven't missed anything important.

They often quote each other, properly, and add their own comments/opinions to those quotes in their own letters.

My understanding is the top newsletter costs 100,000 U.S. per year for 12 monthly issues and has over 20,000 subscribers world-wide!!! Hacking is not unheard of in the industry. LOL

The link I'm providing is to a recent, weekly newsletter that is pretty broad in scope. use it or ignore it as you will.

It goes without saying that no one person is privy to all the information that's out there world-wide. I'm not saying that newsletters are the only data source but you can "bank on it" that the serious investor/wealthy types aren't depending on ABC, Fox or any of the traditional media.

This is probably the major source of investment data for the top investors.

Here's the link: www.tradertracks.com...

reply to post by nwtrucker


Thanks man, I appreciate it, as for highly technical info on economics, I won't get squat! But I'll probably glean something of importance from it.

My pleasure! I'm like you on the technical side of it.

I don't invest and am not really interested in it other than the broad view of just how bad the situation is overall and the info that doesn't even hit the ATS site.

This particular guy has a smallish but long time following and isn't afraid to go out on a limb on the prediction side of things.

What I get from him, I have lunch with him a couple times a month, is the "timing" issue. No one really has that one down, at least for investment purposes.

For me, knowing what is almost inevitable is more important than "timing".

Timing is an investment issue. survival is a preparedness issue.....

It is true that China is tightening it's belt... and some of it may be due to the fact that since the US ECONOMY is tanking, China is feeling effects from some loss of consumerism from the US and other countries that are seeing losses. So, yes, China has to figure out how to gradually scale that back and re-allocate business interests where they are more profitable. This is not impossible to do and I do believe China is smart enough and efficient enough to solve it. This goes hand in hand with their tightening of discretionary spending. It doesn't mean that economy will tank... it means they are bracing themselves, which is an intelligent choice.

What we are used to seeing in the US are inefficient stimulus ideas that do NOT reflect a bracing for hard times, but waste... and also military endeavor preparation. NOT the smart thing to do in my opinion but the US doesn't seem to know when to scale it back and invest their budget on lasting importance... not if it means losing top dog status.

There are many people who want to promote the idea that Chinese companies are not a good investment and that it's currency isn't going to be stable. This is simply to keep that power shift from taking place but it's going to take more than propaganda to make that a reality. When you stand back and look at the big picture and the entire currency war and see more and more investments siding with China as the major global economic player instead of the West, then it's easy to see that this hole is just being dug deeper and deeper.

The West is not going to stop and reassess it's strategy. It is going to continue aggression to control the global market. YES... this will be a problem for China. A dilemma to overcome but it's been dealing with Western tactics for a long time and obviously expected this economic power struggle to take place... if not HOPING for it. The only question is the exact ripening of that time because the West is going to be the one to break the camels back. It was all just a matter of time. It's entire market system is likely to change, it's true. This does not mean China is near going broke... not in the least, but business on a large scale could suffer and this might ensue a bit of chaos among the people... which makes it all the more understandable that China is cutting back on discretionary spending, because when the people and smaller non state owned businesses suffer, the government will have to hold down the fort and keep things from spiraling out of control while the people and businesses reallocate their positions in regards to a new economic situation. It's doing exactly what it needs to do in response from the Western economic crisis and the bad decisions that the West is making... trying to back China in a corner of compliance.

That is kind of a hint that China makes no plans to take this lying down. It's preparing.... bracing itself for a good hard global shake down that the entire world might likely feel. To verify this hunch, I want to take a look at some other numbers in their spending and seeing how it reflects on business with the West. I may add more later.

As for this issue being propaganda because it's from the Jerusalem post... I don't think so.

Here it is again... Some in government are warning what a bad foreign policy decision this is and why it's going to do NOTHING for peace efforts. I still firmly believe that the final call is going to decide on some drastic economic changes world wide and that this issue is very significant.

www.bbc.co.uk...

We've got our priorities BACKWARDS.

China has it's economic priority squarely placed as the only appropriate way to deal with decisions being forced upon it. Will it struggle because of this economic change? Most likely... but it already has a headstart concerning the solution to the problem... and the problem is that the Western elite violently and illegally corral the world market... and it needs to stop!

And take note that in this article it states "penalize countries" as opposed to penalize companies.

I'm not trying to vouch for the correctness of that statement, just showing that this does seem to be the impression reached by people looking into this subject... that this is indeed targeting countries and is not regular business. It's a huge foreign policy move.

NotAnAspie, I have to claim mia culpa for this going off topic. There's a thread covering this subject that I've started and your rebuttal is welcomed.

For those not interested, per say. My reply is in no way an attempt at some "holier than thou" position in relation to the U.S./Western idiocies.

My short answer is why would anyone invest in China when they are in such a hurry to "invest" elsewhere?

Your position doesn't stand up to that simple fact. The world media is also focused on the U.S.'s problems and gives short shrift to everyone else's, to say the least.

If you even took a short look at the newsletter I linked to, you would see that it is a detailed and broad ranged report.

A general economic collapse bodes poorly for a country that has little to no oil reserves, short on food and depends on exports for it's survival.

Canada, the U.S., Australia, to name a few, have the basics to rebound and flourish fairly easily, IMO. Food, energy and infrastructure are sufficient to avoid massive collapse in these countries and others as well.

China is not among them.


China is not among them.

reply to post by nwtrucker

China has a bazillion people who need more space and food.

They will just pillage what they need as they come, and burn what they can't consume, and rape just cuz it feels good.

Any cornered animal becomes a ravenous beast.

reply to post by nwtrucker


Yours is a simplistics view which omits many facts.

I am hearing this argument for last 18 years, and all I see is China rising and USA going nowhere.

Let me list the facts:

1. China has got a grip on its population, due to one child rule. Its population is now on the downward slope.

2. It is almost self-sufficient in food. A reduction in food import will at most mean some shortages. Not something that will impact China too much.

3. China;s public transport system is very good, specially the rail system. Means it can use its coal to run its electric trains hauling both goods and people. China is now producing similar PPP as USA with half the oil. This proves that China's dependence on oil is far less than USA.

4. China can much more effectively ration goods and control its population in case of emergency than USA due to its political system and culture.

5. Even if US stops importing from China (theoretically), it does not mean everybody will do the same.

6. China has secured its oil supply very well. It will be near to impossible for USA to shut it off.

Coming back to Iran, all I can say is that oil export from Iran cannot be switched off, except if oil terminals are destroyed or well heads are destroyed. So barring military action by US/Israel, I do not see how.

reply to post by NotAnAspie

Is this REALLY the way to negotiate global peace?

I don't know. Good question. The U.S. is right now looking like a toddler throwing a tantrum. OTOH, perhaps the only way to HAVE global peace is for the various continents to manage without each other.

In other news, big shots all over the globe are getting charged with fraud, crimes against humanity, etc.

Things really are falling apart. But I agree, who the hell is the U.S. to 'demand' that other countries not buy stuff from each other? What a ridiculous world this has become -

reply to post by NotAnAspie

Do you think if U.S. "refuses to trade" with those countries where there are American-based global corporations exist and employ people, it would mean those corporations will return state-side and Americans might get their off-shored jobs back?

This could be a GOOD thing....

maybe. Lord knows we certainly need to get our own act together in the U.S. and stop acting like the world hall monitor.

reply to post by GargIndia


GargIndia, I will have to get back to you on your longer post,I have to go to work.

On your second post, non-military means are fairly easy. First, "potential" war in the Mid-east, in this case Iran, drives up the insurance rates for oil carriers to the point where it is no longer profitable to carry out those contracts to deliver that oil by commercial tankers.

Second, threatened sanctions against those countries who violate any Iranian sanctions would also give pause to any nation attempting to deliver to China.

Dove-tailing with your point 6, a single Sea Wolf class submarine, just ONE, is sufficient to block/destroy any tanker loading out of Iran.

Impossible? Easy beyond belief....

Originally posted by nwtrucker
reply to post by GargIndia

 

GargIndia, I'm sending you a P.M. that is from one specific (paid) newsletter, most of these can't be "googled" .

It's not much, but there's much more out there covering the subject of China's economy. The future is not bright for their economy from what I can see.

With discretionary spending dropping almost daily, world-wide, the major exporter of goods directed to that market is in deep doo doo.

People are in hyperdrive about China's economy. I think it is a useless exercise.

US/UK is printing like crazy. Most of this money is landing in China.

The answer to problems lies in investing in economy, not in war machine. Uncle Sam has to tell itself that.

America's infrastructure needs renewal. America built a wonderful infrastructure in 50s and 60s, but that is 50 years old. America needs heavy investment in wind and solar, but the limelight here is hogged by Asia and Europe. America has no high speed surface transport system today or planned. The over-reliance on planes means USA itself is vulnerable to oil shock.

Originally posted by nwtrucker
reply to post by GargIndia

 

GargIndia, I will have to get back to you on your longer post,I have to go to work.

On your second post, non-military means are fairly easy. First, "potential" war in the Mid-east, in this case Iran, drives up the insurance rates for oil carriers to the point where it is no longer profitable to carry out those contracts to deliver that oil by commercial tankers.

Second, threatened sanctions against those countries who violate any Iranian sanctions would also give pause to any nation attempting to deliver to China.

Dove-tailing with your point 6, a single Sea Wolf class submarine, just ONE, is sufficient to block/destroy any tanker loading out of Iran.

Impossible? Easy beyond belief....

edit on 2-8-2013 by nwtrucker because: grammar

1. China can buy more than enough tankers to haul its oil. It may have already. Who cares about insurance?
2. China can escort its tankers if things get that bad as you describe.
3. I have not seen a Chinese asset blown up in a very long time. We shall see how China reacts when it happens.

reply to post by nwtrucker


Dear nwtrucker,

Let me make it straight and clear to you. People like me want the USA to stand on a solid foundation. Not on the muddy ground of bankers and derivatives.

I recognize that USA revitalize its manufacturing and infrastructure, so that domestic jobs are created.

I do not advise USA to screw its lenders though. The lenders must be repaid. There is no merit in saying that just collapse the system and wipe off all debts. That is crazy.

India must build its economy based on R&D and industry. The same is true of China.

I do not like contract manufacturing or contract software. This kind of thing cannot last.

The problem will start for USA and for all others if USA starts wars to "wipe off the old system". This is where things will start to go wrong.

Otherwise there is no problem.

Originally posted by nwtruckerYour position doesn't stand up to that simple fact. The world media is also focused on the U.S.'s problems and gives short shrift to everyone else's, to say the least.

If you even took a short look at the newsletter I linked to, you would see that it is a detailed and broad ranged report.

A general economic collapse bodes poorly for a country that has little to no oil reserves, short on food and depends on exports for it's survival.

Canada, the U.S., Australia, to name a few, have the basics to rebound and flourish fairly easily, IMO. Food, energy and infrastructure are sufficient to avoid massive collapse in these countries and others as well.
.

I'm not sure the question of why China invests abroad even needs an explanation. My theories on this topic most certainly do stand up to that fact. The answer is akin to why China would be involved in the start up of an international development bank. If you think they are hurting so bad, why be interested in outside development? why be interested in investing abroad? The answer is very plain to see & serves dual purposes. 1) Is for greater control of global market standards that the US tries to monopolize & boss everyone around with. 2) Is to open it's doors to a wide range of investments & all depending on the current political situation, China can decide how to use these investments, & there are many different ways that they could.

If you think that China is lacking on things that govts tend to hoard for rainy days when it's been stated over & over that China tends to hide things off the books, you're going to be very hard pressed to prove it. Even ON the books, you should have probably taken a look at the companies I listed & the post I made about their huge global investment, even in North America. Not to mention the fact that Iranian oil has been stored by various countries, take Venezuela for example & you personally have no way of knowing how much oil all around the world from various sources that China has access to.

It doesn't matter how detailed your source is. You admitted that it was obscure & honestly, I don't want to download your PDF. Thank You for taking a marked notice of the fact that I did not.

As for China not having food. People in China, especially in outer villages, you will find are very resourceful & are known for doing things that almost ALL Americans have forgotten how to do- survive by the resources surrounding them. That's not even including any food storage... that is just the basic fact that China has fertile lands & lot's of it... lot's of resources that even the most common people can utilize. A trait that would serve Americans to recognize. Your claim is as though you know nothing of the country itself if you think that it is some kind of barren wasteland void of any resources. I'm sorry but this makes for some pretty hysterical propaganda. In a crisis ANY country might experience hard times & food shortages inside of stores but how does that effect you & how does that effect China's basic skill at surviving a crisis? It doesn't.... on both counts.
Sure, in large cities, if stores were to become empty, yes, this would be a problem but that is only a portion of the country & you don't know what connections China has in regards to food. As long as there is a viable planet that can sustain life, then there will be ground in which to grow food. You are trying to compare yourself to all Chinese & that's not going to bring you to a good conclusion when looking at their ability to survive. If stores went empty of food & gas in America, yes, the majority of the population would starve in their houses waiting for food to arrive which explains why the govt is so adamant in controlling agriculture. China has had it's own experiences in agricultural control & has learned a lot on both sides of the issue concerning on both control & allowing people to hold on to their basic survival skills.

I see that you are focused on reporting on any failures in China & although in some cases it may be related to the topic, your motive has nothing to do with the main point & that is that we are choosing to add sanctions that will continue to try to hurt a country that has been a huge partner with American markets & that YOU say they are in struggling times.

How does this reflect on the topic other than proving (if it were true) that these sanctions by the US is a dick move indeed that will serve no one but their own greed?

It is to avoid giving any more credence to the Chinese way of doing things in light of this power struggle. I know exactly what it is. What other reason would you have for posting it in this this thread? So therefore when you go out of your way to say you are not backing up US idiocies, it is clear that not only is a poor attempt at reverse psychology but an outright lie is not going to help you get a genuine point across.

Try again.

Originally posted by wildtimes
reply to post by NotAnAspie

 

Do you think if U.S. "refuses to trade" with those countries where there are American-based global corporations exist and employ people, it would mean those corporations will return state-side and Americans might get their off-shored jobs back?

This could be a GOOD thing....

maybe. Lord knows we certainly need to get our own act together in the U.S. and stop acting like the world hall monitor.

That is something I have thought about... and another reason why both sides of this issue should be bracing itself for that change in structure. However, this is not what we see the US doing right now. What we see is careless spending on desperate attempts to remain the big boss.

Those jobs you speak of will likely go to India or Mexico, because corporations do not want to pay American wages that are now even more riddled with inflation due to their Quantitative Easing shenanigans.

What they want Americans to do is encourage the young unemployed to join the military and more now than ever with inflation and penalties for health care... we are being penalized for not being able to take care of ourselves.

This is why we need new leadership, and why I believe that we see the anti-socialism pro-democracy cheerleaders trying to claim China is such a mess.

Somebody in big government buildings are afraid of losing their desk jobs... and that is the only bright side I see to this whole scenario.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
With things like Snowden fueling the courage to tell Washington to get stuffed? I think this is a bad bad miscalculation for timing and topic to push right now and it's going to backfire.

I agree with you. The world is laughing at the Obama administration. He's impotent. He hasn't got the clout to do anything and he certainly doesn't have the respect of China or Russia Iran or anyone else on the planet.

wildtimes... and to add something to those thoughts that i just remembered was in world news, our government wants to cut corporate taxes. Now, we are supposed to believe this will score us jobs, but in a time when our debt is so high when they cut corporate taxes, they will then start scrounging the money from elsewhere... from the people. We are already seeing this is the cutting of federal programs.

Those corporation aren't forced to give jobs to Americans but Americans will DEFINITELY have to take up the slack when it comes to the governments loss of those tax dollars. See how that doesn't really work?.... but corporations will have some play room when having to restructure and send those jobs to another country where labor is cheap when they pull business with those countries companies who buy oil from Iran. There's no way corporate tax slashing is going to be enough to supplement the hardships of the American people PLUS help fund the government during it's largest debt... but that's not what it's for anyway. It's simply because our leaders are propped up by corporations and they will have their backs when it's time to re-allocate those jobs.

Job creation is clearly not what this is for.

When it comes to American hardship, we will have to suck it up because our standards of living are still pretty high compared to other parts of the world... so we don't really get a lot of sympathy, even from our own leaders. You have to live it to know how we are tied up in red tape, high mortgages, high rent and people in this country, in my opinion, are not brought up to help each other. It's a spoiled superficial society that does not really uphold the idea of charity without getting something in return, like a tax break. We are generally not a society that will disgrace our big nice houses by letting homeless people have a piece of the floor to sleep on. It's not even socially acceptable to communicate with them. Americans tend to want a promise of reward before they help anyone. Countries who know hardship do not have room for sympathy because most Americans feel they are too good to "hunker down". Leaders who have been backed up by money into their positions have no sympathy simply from being detached from the idea of hardship.