US plans to bring Iran oil exports down to zero (No, Seriously, read this)

Wow, okay, I think the U.S. is trying to play a game of chicken when it does not know all the facts. China has probably been planning on becoming more independent from the U.S. anyway, and Venezuela already cut ties to the U.S. as well as Ecuador,

I bet they are just like "Okay, cut your trade ties"

I mean, Australia is already headed towards being friendly with China, Iran has oil supplies, South America could open up trade channels with China, Russia might be more open to trade, and could possibly even develop a relationship with the E.U. which is mad at the U.S. for the N.S.A. spying.

The U.S. would basically be putting trade sanctions on itself in a bad economy. I mean, we could trade with the U.K. but ... well.

Originally posted by Ricky Revere
reply to post by NotAnAspie

 

The United States has more domestic oil than Saudi Arabia. The Chinese need the USA as a business partner. The issue is a Nuclear Iran that will use them against Israel. Of course with all the Jew haters on this site, ATS has a tremendous paranoid population of anti US/Israel....
It bums so many out that we, Americans, live how we do.....and we as Americans are changing the cabal that seems to exist throughout Europe and Asia and is older than our country. In fact, the Cabal killed our 35th President for taking their name off our currency that this cabal has been stealing from Americans since 1913...Yeah, you killed John Kennedy because he ordered the Federal Reserve off our currency.
Because the Fascist were able too infiltrate our government it is taking a long time to over power them, and we are....
So get a clue people.Many of us know WHO the real enemy is and it is not the American People...Its your(Europe/Asia Banker cabal) that has stolen from us for a century. This is ending. The Republic of The United States is going to rise out of the stench of European Socialism that has handicapped us for decades...And when your countries can grow a pair, and actually defend something of integrity, then post and bash. Til, then bow hard. Ricky Revere.."The enemy is here"

I would not jump up and down on the basis of shale oil.

Shale oil is difficult and expensive to extract. The wells dry up fast, so you have to keep on drilling.

USA should build rail infrastructure rather than keep addiction to oil. High speed passenger rail between major population centers and low speed rail between minor is the solution.

US problems are not due to European or Asian socialism but due to excessive expenditure on military, and corresponding low spend on infrastructure.

reply to post by NotAnAspie

Hardly anything significant about that news.

The sanctions will be against companies that trade with Iran, not countries. These countries that want to continue to trade with Iran simply have to set up companies that trade exclusively with Iran and maintain a balanced trade or have Iran accept the trading country's national currency as payment. Iran won't have a problem saving their trade surplus with China in Renmimbi. South Korea, Pakistan and Turkey may have to find alternate ways of paying Iran if they run a trade deficit with Iran. It appears Pakistan and Turkey are already settling the trade deficits with Iran in gold.

The only thing this will achieve is Iran getting out of Western currencies for international trade. Not something that will negatively impact either Iran or those continuing to trade with it.

I think the rest of the world is learning from American industrialism. Sooner or later the rest of the world won't need America anymore an you'll lose all the leverage you have.

This is a tactic they've implemented quite often. I know some American companies have policies where they don't trade with companies that possibly have ties with the Al-Qaeda or with any other U.S. enemies. Nothing new honestly.

How is Saudi Arabia going to supply Iran's former customers when Saudi Arabia's oil fields and petroleum facilities are in flames?

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by NotAnAspie

 

Hardly anything significant about that news.

The sanctions will be against companies that trade with Iran, not countries. These countries that want to continue to trade with Iran simply have to set up companies that trade exclusively with Iran and maintain a balanced trade or have Iran accept the trading country's national currency as payment. Iran won't have a problem saving their trade surplus with China in Renmimbi. South Korea, Pakistan and Turkey may have to find alternate ways of paying Iran if they run a trade deficit with Iran. It appears Pakistan and Turkey are already settling the trade deficits with Iran in gold.

The only thing this will achieve is Iran getting out of Western currencies for international trade. Not something that will negatively impact either Iran or those continuing to trade with it.

China, Russia and India can pretty much supply anything that Iran needs.
However India has reduced oil import from Iran due to American threats.
Russia and China will continue to supply Iran. Iran can always get paid in goods.

The oil exports cannot be stopped unless export facilities (like ports, pipelines) are destroyed.

Again such a statement (like nobody can import oil from Iran) is an act of war.

reply to post by Adaluncatif


A very good question!

A big stumbling block to world peace is sadly Saudi Arabia. This is not only linked to the Muslim internal and on-going war, between Sunni and Shia where they get real down and dirty by blowing up each others mosques, preferably when full of worshippers, but it also concerns Saudi's silent cooperation with Israel - which should make these two weird bedmates.

Also something strange our Governments seem to do, is to pardon time and again the amount of terrorists that are
Saudi grown and raging against the West. How many Iranians do we have in that category? MEMRI the Israeli intelligence services western media voice would have us believe all Iranians hate us but I''m not so sure.

Iran is not an Arab country and has a very ancient history so is probably far more sophisticated than the average man on the streets is aware of. It is surprising as they are portrayed as such demons, that they haven't yet sabotaged Saudi's oil fields. However put to the wall this is something that would not surprise me but Saudi is already pumping to capacity so couldn't pick up Iran's customers anyway.

I do feel now slightly that this is more the reason for the Afgan war, because any pipeline on their border would be easily reached by whoever controls Afganistan, so perhaps a little more light is being shed on our mysterious warmongering in Afganistan so long after the training camps for terrorists had fled to the Yemen.

Iran selling its oil and not using the dollar is the real threat to the USA dollar and as such to the stability in the EU etc but old alliances are changing as someone earlier pointed out by Australia courting relations with China.

I also think that the West underestimates Russia and her position in this stage. Putin is playing a very steady and above-board hand in dealing with Snowden and I suspect that countries, like Germany who is supplying a massive contract to the USSR for trains will be looking at the Russian market far more commercially than the USA.

China had military 'boat play' with the Russians recently and it looks as though their military hardware is bang up to date with dedicated personnel and I think although they operate a softish foreign policy usually by veto etc I certainly wouldn't like to question them on their relationship with Iran because we couldn't easily back it up if at all.

As Iran's allies, Russia and China can veto moves against Iran, that means the USA cannot easily go for Iran other than by sanctions. It can plan what it likes but carrying it out today is another matter. The world is shifting and new allies are being sought. Israel pushed the boundary by hitting Syria recently but all that has done is to put those allies on alert and Israel herself if not invulnerable. I doubt the USA could bring Iran's oil exports down to zero without a war - and are most countries willing to pay that price for Obama's aspirations.

reply to post by NotAnAspie


Ok, so the U.S has an economy. We control it and can choose who we do business with. If we decide we don't want to do business with someone, or anyone who does business with them, so be it. There are those who would say we are not the global police, but when we choose who to do business with we are acting as the global police. Well, we can start wars with people and that's fine with everyone, but god forbid we just simply ignore them. And let their business go to crap, oh Lordy we starting a financial war, tin foil hats everyone.

reply to post by GargIndia

All the invasions in the Middle East are meant for Western control of the oil, not the oil itself. The oil is supposed to flow primarily to China and India where the bulk of the growth is expected to be. "Isolating" Iran is simply to ensure the Iranian oil is available almost exclusively for these two countries and at prices well below the international prices of oil.

Something to throw into the mix. Did Jesus Christ predict that the US is supposed to conquer Iran? What to consider here.

Matthew 24
26 Wherefore if they shall say unto you, Behold, he is in the desert; go not forth: behold, he is in the secret chambers; believe it not.
27 For as the lightning cometh out of the east, and shineth even unto the west; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
28 For wheresoever the carcase is, there will the eagles be gathered together.
29 Immediately after the tribulation of those days shall the sun be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, and the stars shall fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens shall be shaken:
30 And then shall appear the sign of the Son of man in heaven: and then shall all the tribes of the earth mourn, and they shall see the Son of man coming in the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.
31 And he shall send his angels with a great sound of a trumpet, and they shall gather together his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.

While at first glance this is supposed to look like stuff and nonsense there is actually a hidden message here. And I think I decoded it. What verse 28 is saying is this.

It's a reference to an old testament prophecy. And looking hard I found it. And what it's referring to is the prophecy of Daniel 8. The ram and goat prophecy. And it's referring to this.

Daniel 8
1 In the third year of the reign of king Belshazzar a vision appeared unto me, even unto me Daniel, after that which appeared unto me at the first.
2 And I saw in a vision; and it came to pass, when I saw, that I was at Shushan in the palace, which is in the province of Elam; and I saw in a vision, and I was by the river of Ulai.
3 Then I lifted up mine eyes, and saw, and, behold, there stood before the river a ram which had two horns: and the two horns were high; but one was higher than the other, and the higher came up last.
4 I saw the ram pushing westward, and northward, and southward; so that no beasts might stand before him, neither was there any that could deliver out of his hand; but he did according to his will, and became great.
5 And as I was considering, behold, an he goat came from the west on the face of the whole earth, and touched not the ground: and the goat had a notable horn between his eyes.
6 And he came to the ram that had two horns, which I had seen standing before the river, and ran unto him in the fury of his power.
7 And I saw him come close unto the ram, and he was moved with choler against him, and smote the ram, and brake his two horns: and there was no power in the ram to stand before him, but he cast him down to the ground, and stamped upon him: and there was none that could deliver the ram out of his hand.

19 And he said, Behold, I will make thee know what shall be in the last end of the indignation: for at the time appointed the end shall be.
20 The ram which thou sawest having two horns are the kings of Media and Persia.

According to the Daniel 8 prophecy 3 nations are to be conquered in the middle east at the beginning of the end times. So far the US has conquered 2 nations in the middle east.

Do you think it's possible that the groundwork is being laid for the prophecy to be consummated??? And yes, any objections to this theory can be explained away. The easiest being Matthew 24-15 where he predicts the Abomination of Desolation happening a 2nd time. Sometimes bibical prophesies have multiple fulfillments.

It's not even like Iran has tested a bomb, or has any choice against developing nuclear weapons as a detterent given U.S history & policy in the region -let alone across the border as in Iraq's and nearby Libya's case.

Clearly Obama is the most right-wing, Pro-Israel, President since Bush (who coincidentally was the most pro ever at the time). I have a feeling China will be weak and go along with the U.S plan, but then perhaps it's they who should be bullying the West given not only the trade rewards from Iran (oil), Afghanistan (precious metal) and Pakistan (cheap labour).

Perhaps if China does go along with the U.S plan it will be very short term, and more to have Iran in a weaker negotiating position to suit China's own purposes?
Or perhaps China will issue a counter-threat given how much USD it owns?

Either way: I fully expect any Iranian oil sanctions to become about as water tight, as a bathroom towel!

I( think the real war is actually about ecomonic survival and China is, despite trouble with over production, still in the driving seat. If you look at so much we import its made in China.

After WW2 Japan literally sought a ecomonic war by making cars which decimated some of the UK car firms because they produced cheaper and better goods. China is following suit.

One can move troops all over the place but I doubt there are enough drones to cover Iran and I expect Iran has a neat little arsenal all of its own.

We are hypocrates in the West because Pakistan with its atomic arsenal should hardly be regarded as a stable country safe for that type of weapon.

I would be interested to see if there is enough oil to supply the market if Iran were taken out of the equation.

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by GargIndia

 

All the invasions in the Middle East are meant for Western control of the oil, not the oil itself. The oil is supposed to flow primarily to China and India where the bulk of the growth is expected to be. "Isolating" Iran is simply to ensure the Iranian oil is available almost exclusively for these two countries and at prices well below the international prices of oil.

I do not know about China but India will defer to USA's demands.

India is likely to stop imports even if Iran is giving free.

All benefit to China it seems. Only those countries will benefit who can stand up to Uncle Sam.

Originally posted by Shiloh7
I( think the real war is actually about ecomonic survival and China is, despite trouble with over production, still in the driving seat. If you look at so much we import its made in China.

After WW2 Japan literally sought a ecomonic war by making cars which decimated some of the UK car firms because they produced cheaper and better goods. China is following suit.

One can move troops all over the place but I doubt there are enough drones to cover Iran and I expect Iran has a neat little arsenal all of its own.

We are hypocrates in the West because Pakistan with its atomic arsenal should hardly be regarded as a stable country safe for that type of weapon.

I would be interested to see if there is enough oil to supply the market if Iran were taken out of the equation.

USA going to war with Iran has a lot of bad side-effects.

1. It will destroy the balance of power in the middle-east.
2. It will cause a Sunni witch hunt against Shia resulting in a lot of deaths (If Iran is perceived weak).
3. It is unlikely Iran's government will fall due to airstrikes. So it will only cause further trouble in middle-east.

US should work out by diplomacy with Iran, a path that can reduce problems.

Originally posted by SpeachM1litant
They won't be imposing sanctions on China. They will be refusing to allow Chinese companies engaged with the Iranian oil sector participation in the US economy. Big difference.

Then all they have to do is isolate the companies that trade with Iran and separate them from any US business and then this threat is meaningless, so why even make the threat? It's too easy to arrange business so it can be dodged. Will the US be happy with that? I don't think they will.

It's an interesting point though because some believe that certain people in US government are aiding the collapse of the dollar and so this would be more like an appeasement for those pushing for war with Iran (and business resumes and old money continues to loose it's grounding, but they can't really continue to complain about heavily sanctioned Iran)... The side pushing for war is more of a business interest like someone has pointed out, than a legitimate foreign policy... Yet our president and leaders appear to be the spokesman for these businesses... directly.

As I have always said, there is deep divisions in government. There are those who control complex matters of money and resources behind the scenes and they wrongly involve themselves in foreign policy and it is largely displayed in our media which steers public opinion into a mess... yet I still believe some are more interested in change and open mindedness as well as global cooperation with our partners.. even the ones we don't always call partners. In my opinion, change of the old school elite is needed and the bankers should have control stripped from them... but in doing this one would have to be extremely careful not to upset a large consensus that this is not in our best interest. People have huge superstitions about a democracy they think is real collaborating with Socialists. They do not see the full scope and are unaware Zionism is totally political and involves the elites, many of which are not even Jews.... so they see this much needed collaboration as a collapse of democratic values... and they don't know if this realization will fall onto the public, what will happen... because communist fear in America is probably as strong as fear of terrorism and slave labor propaganda is rampant and despite the fact they inflict it, they think they're above it.

This is complicated so I'm not sure if I made that clear but this is something to ponder.

However, you also have to look at what Chinese companies this would effect since Chinese government controls a lot of those large companies. No one can really doubt that the Chinese government has a very big hand in making this trade possible... outside of US interests. This is definitely originated from government decisions in China to maintain that trade partnership. It is direct government funded involvement that is paving this path to these huge endeavors that will change global trade and Iran is a key in this.

Meanwhile, President Putin meets with Iran regarding nuclear programs as one who clearly has better ties with the Iranians.... and the US puts a bandaid on these new tighter Iranian sanctions.... while calling Iran the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism.

Pay close attention to those last words. That is a definitive label in an important moment. It sounds very much like labels we've heard in the past prior to major conflicts.

The sending of medical equipment gives the opportunity for a false headline for those just skimming through them... but to Iran this is the smart remark before the punch to the face... as in "Yeah, you'll be needing medical equipment. Now you can't blame us for not having medical equipment after all these sanctions and your struggling economy... when your lives are torn apart in this war"

www.worldtribune.com...

I feel this talk is a big effort in posturing and is paybacks for any involvement Ahmadinejad had in the ousting of Morsi. I still think China helped him offer Egypt a loan to prepare for any repercussions that might stem from the coup.

Originally posted by GargIndia

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by GargIndia

 

All the invasions in the Middle East are meant for Western control of the oil, not the oil itself. The oil is supposed to flow primarily to China and India where the bulk of the growth is expected to be. "Isolating" Iran is simply to ensure the Iranian oil is available almost exclusively for these two countries and at prices well below the international prices of oil.

I do not know about China but India will defer to USA's demands.

India is likely to stop imports even if Iran is giving free.

All benefit to China it seems. Only those countries will benefit who can stand up to Uncle Sam.

Biden just went to shore up ties with India, I guess to reaffirm that security... and if China won't supply cheap labor for products in shelves, maybe India will. Maybe that's what they are thinking.

I don't know how far India would go to appease the West though.... maybe taking jobs, respecting sanctions... I don't know. Their policy is supposed to be neutral on a lot of things and for now, this may be a good idea but I'm sure that their public opinion is not so one sided. That's another interesting point to ponder.

Like someone said (can't remember the whole post) that China was scaling back on some of it's trade anyway so yeah, if the US would let the issue rest even after some cut ties then it might not escalate very much... but I don't think they will leave it alone. This would be a huge trade transition and I think it will be costly... even if it could iron out eventually, the main problem is that they want something from this. They want China to buckle. If they don't get that, what will they do?... just be happy importing stuff from other places? I highly doubt it because it still leaves the big gaping economy and all the sticky red tape that has us all mixed up... jobless and inflated.

That would be ok if we could get back to surviving on the land and taking back our own small trade as the elites die off, but they will keep chances of clean energy away from us because of this as long as they can.

We do need intervention. For example, the solar equipment China was attempting to put on the market that the west is blocking.

We need cooperation for better tech, communication and an end to wars but if this measure really is meant to pack a punch, the US won't rest until the blow is delivered (don't forget China holds a lot of both seen and unseen debt)... and that is not going to give the world the unity that it needs to overcome some very real issues concerning many different things.

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by GargIndia

 

All the invasions in the Middle East are meant for Western control of the oil, not the oil itself. The oil is supposed to flow primarily to China and India where the bulk of the growth is expected to be. "Isolating" Iran is simply to ensure the Iranian oil is available almost exclusively for these two countries and at prices well below the international prices of oil.

LOL observer this makes sense, ergo it will be ignored so I gave it a star and commented on it.

With the absence of an "evil soviet empire" China has slowly but surely become the new "Good Cop Bad Cop" game player with the USA

1: Yes for now it assures they only have one buyer, the buyer we want

2: China will drink that oil so fast Iran has little leverage in the future and no other way to make money essentially marginalizing Iran and one day...they will wake up in a real crisis wanting to overthrow their govt

3: Where we "can't win" in public opinion... is where "Good Cop Bad Cop" comes in and so does "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" it's not actually sane to try to invade Pakistan for example... or to go any further in dealing with central asian states in any negative manner. This is where.... GOOD COP China comes in.... China gets to send those "military advisers" build the tunnel into pakistan...be that "pal" if we do attack anything anywhere that comes in with "workers" to rebuild....

What does this leave? It leaves, Pakistan, Iran and places like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc.... firmly under the thumb of our "partner" in the war on Terror China's thumb.... "Must protect against America" and building a Tunnel through to Pakistan is perfect for Chinese Armor, Draining Irans oil for modernizing China is perfect for China as well...

Take Kazakhstan and all it's oil.... 34 Million people on the border of China.... Siberia 6 Million people on the border of China... Total an area with tons of resources...the size of Canada and China has 1.5 BILLION folks that want breathing room.... Drive these regions closer together with China your basically give them to China demographically over time...

It's a game.... Just like the cold war was...

A game between super powers that the pawns never win...

What happens when Millions of Indian workers that build places like Dubai never leave?

What happens when we bomb the hell out of Iran (loose) another war and it's all Chinese workers for the rebuilding and China has nice new roads and pipes and easy Tank access to the region?

Look at Iran Population... 74 Million, now drop a single Israeli nuke... and regional conflict depleted Uranium all that good stuff... Good Cop China saves the day, helps supply weapons, stands up to the USA drains all there oil builds the roads.... when done, with birth defects, bombs, farming disasters, no natural resource left... 60 Million Iranians.... (who dies in conflicts...the elderly and the young) so the religious right gets beat down, the next generation is small, 60 mil is being optimistic for them 20 years later... plus you BLEED the male population right...

Then... leave behind a few Million Chinese workers who come to help "rebuild", leave China with spanking new roads right to the heart, the ability to offer a threat america never can.... endless armored columns and man power...the entire remaining oil economy dependent on again China/India

Iran is owned

Give that 50 years, American occupation aid in the internet access, drops all sorts of "cultural artifacts" in there that "changes the youth" China then the Good Cop has it's influence, the elderly die in droves through it all...

Hard to say "what" Iran will be when GOOD COP BAD COP is over... but already thy have a youth population not so thrilled with Islamic rule as Grandma and Grandpa anyway...

Add a lot of Chinese Atheist workers to a town near by... a healthy dose of Internet, post war Mc Donalds building... what ever it is it wont be "Iran" as we know it...

And When....

China's role.... switches to "Bad Cop" the region is done... THE STUPIDEST thing you can ever do is create the infra structure that allows China to march across.... (if your over there)

And take it seriously

Once the roads and commerce are there, once you have military ties, "workers" on your soil... the oil is low and your income becomes Chinese tourism on those roads... Your national integrity is Over... there are more people in China than all of Islam totaled world wide.... most of that is Africa and Indonesia... Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Siberia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran... Don't even combined have the population of the USA, which is 1/5th the population of China....

China could "Exodus" enough Settlers under the right conditions, leave the mainland of China still being the most populous nation on Earth above India, match the indigenous population across what was once the whole of the Mongolian Empire 1:1 demographically alter all of Asia to being Chinese and do it while filling every one of those empty cities around the world essentially becoming the new "colonial" power of the world...

If they drop the "one child policy" they could be half the worlds population in under 20 years....

All they need is a reason to build the roads...

Before we are all dead... China will stretch to Europe... In our lifetime with substantial colonies In North America, South America and Africa

The real war is not with tanks...it's over people, demographics always has been... China is smart as heck... when you get permission to build empty cities in nations in Africa where everyone is dying of aids and starvation and you can send endless men at will, when your neighbors who have 1/15th of your population let you build roads through their territory the win is inevitable...

Originally posted by GargIndia

Originally posted by Shiloh7
I( think the real war is actually about ecomonic survival and China is, despite trouble with over production, still in the driving seat. If you look at so much we import its made in China.

After WW2 Japan literally sought a ecomonic war by making cars which decimated some of the UK car firms because they produced cheaper and better goods. China is following suit.

One can move troops all over the place but I doubt there are enough drones to cover Iran and I expect Iran has a neat little arsenal all of its own.

We are hypocrates in the West because Pakistan with its atomic arsenal should hardly be regarded as a stable country safe for that type of weapon.

I would be interested to see if there is enough oil to supply the market if Iran were taken out of the equation.

USA going to war with Iran has a lot of bad side-effects.

1. It will destroy the balance of power in the middle-east.
2. It will cause a Sunni witch hunt against Shia resulting in a lot of deaths (If Iran is perceived weak).
3. It is unlikely Iran's government will fall due to airstrikes. So it will only cause further trouble in middle-east.

US should work out by diplomacy with Iran, a path that can reduce problems.

Garg... Not everything is in the USA's interests from a POV you'd think it would be

Look at the US economy post 9-11, 2 Towers... 2 buildings down and we sunk hard, War, real War is no conducive for super powers, India and China are Super powers, compassion to the USA isn't appropriate on a global scale, there is Europe, North America, East Asia and India...

USA wants regions... Not small Nation States, non-Fundamentalist regions... Consumers, Modern High tech regions for whom warring with each other, Nuclear devastation is unthinkable...

You mention a Sunni Witch hunt vs Shia... great way to decimate population and essentially hand the middle east over to India and china....

2.5 Billion Chinese and Indians currently... (slightly more) only 1.5 Billion Muslims in the world, mainly in Africa and Indonesia by number... now, decimate (the actually low numbers) in the ME, hand the economic control over to India and China, open the roads, leave Chinese and Indian military policing them...

How is that bad for the USA

We loose 10,000 to 50,000 troops like every other contrived war we fought while shaping the landscape to other superpowers...

We talk in America about trade deficits... if we consume in America DOUBLE what China and India IMPORT yearly with 2.5 Billion mouths to feed...and clothe VS our 400 Million Consumers we still win big economically... It's another America Century, our Auto exports can be 10% and we employ everyone we wish to over here... that's 250 Million cars sold lol

Cars that need GAS btw... and we are No 1 at making Oil from crap with our methods... when the ME runs dry and India and China are modern Us Bio Diesel, US Fracking, Us Shale... US deep well, Us A Biotic oil tapping...

We make a fortune from this... for centuries to come...

reply to post by penninja


I am not so sure everything is as per plan.

I do not think USA wants to give China or India a more prominent role by design.

The problem with war is that the outcome may not be as per your desire. War is chaotic and fluid.

It is better to win in peacetime than in wartime.