Warning to New Zealand- Beware, Monster Quake May be Imminent

reply to post by Rosinitiate


Wow. So strange. I had a restless night yada yada (see previous post in reply to TrueAmerican) and when I awoke I had a vision of fire. But I didn't think it meant anything until I saw the posts about solar flares. I know I've said it before, but the birds are quiet- something is wrong.

Originally posted by Toricait73
reply to post by Rosinitiate

 

Wow. So strange. I had a restless night yada yada (see previous post in reply to TrueAmerican) and when I awoke I had a vision of fire. But I didn't think it meant anything until I saw the posts about solar flares. I know I've said it before, but the birds are quiet- something is wrong.

I had a restless night last night also. I kept trying to get myself back to sleep for a few hours and couldn't. *sigh*

I'm not going to say it was directly related to this incident but it wouldn't surprise me. More research needs to be done. Have a group of people studied every day and night and monitor any changes in mood/behavior before, during and after a quake. That should make for some fun interesting study...

reply to post by Rosinitiate



Go back a few days on spaceweather.

I was looking at www.iris.edu...

What is the big blue line? Is that an earthquake?

TA, all estimates of a potential max quake are based on existing faults
see here maps.gns.cri.nz... and click on the Faults Database map link

however these quakes are between two faults and may be a new fault itself, the max extent of the current swarm of 5's and the 6.5 and aftershocks is only 25km, which is not capable of producing a mag 8+

Either the Wellington or the Wairarapa fault could, and IS certainly overdue, last one was on the Wairarapa Fault in 1855/01/23 Mag 8.2-8.4, so lets hope this weeks quakes don't weaken/trigger either of those two.

It wouldn't even take an 8+ to mess up our lives, a 7.5 on the southern end of the Awatere Fault on 16th Oct 1848 practically wiped Wellington out. That was when they were building out of stone.

Anything is possible though.

reply to post by playernumber13


yeah that is the 6.5
the graph is seriously scaled down though.

Here's some video footage from today -

Hubby set off for work 3am and said there was a blood red moon here NZ lower north - did anyone else see it - any pics?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Yikes!

I certainly hope you are wrong!

Good call though!

Originally posted by muzzy
TA, all estimates of a potential max quake are based on existing faults
see here maps.gns.cri.nz... and click on the Faults Database map link

however these quakes are between two faults and may be a new fault itself, the max extent of the current swarm of 5's and the 6.5 and aftershocks is only 25km, which is not capable of producing a mag 8+

Either the Wellington or the Wairarapa fault could, and IS certainly overdue, last one was on the Wairarapa Fault in 1855/01/23 Mag 8.2-8.4, so lets hope this weeks quakes don't weaken/trigger either of those two.

It wouldn't even take an 8+ to mess up our lives, a 7.5 on the southern end of the Awatere Fault on 16th Oct 1848 practically wiped Wellington out. That was when they were building out of stone.

Anything is possible though.

edit on 21-7-2013 by muzzy because: (no reason given)

I find it interesting that according to that very fault database you mentioned, the known faults are only listed for those on land. We have a similar situation to that of Japan here, where because these quakes are occurring under water, little seems to be known about what the faults are doing at those points.

Japan had the best technology, even ocean bottom seismometers, and they couldn't detect that unknown fault extension which produced the 9+. Well they know about it now, don't they. I'd be very careful if I were you about putting any stock in science when we are dealing with submerged faults. Or worse- submerged unknown faults.

In addition, that quake occurred in a transfer zone where the subduction reverses from that of the South Island, complicating an unknown into an impossible.

Japan redefined what is possible.

Also, perhaps you could explain to the quake watchers why the USGS's epicenter location of that 6.5 is nearly 20 km from GeoNet's epicenter location? Without even looking at the phase data, I would venture it's because GeoNet is using many more local seismometers to triangulate that position, and they are probably more correct than the USGS in this case. Does GeoNet list location error percentages?

That is some strong shaking going on in that video. I hope everyone stays safe down there. Note to self, Got to get one of those leaf blowers

Id actually think the opposite, given the 2 fairly sizable shocks in the Cook Strait yesterday it's a good thing, the more energy that gets used up now the weaker any biggie could be latter.

Interestingly my sister said the curtains in her flat where swaying and the sliding door rattling at the time the one at 5pm happened in Wellington, and others in her area of town noticed stuff like that too, one person even said they thought they were dizzy then realized it was the ground moving rather than them.

Thing is... our town is half the North island away from Wellington up in the Waikato granted the shock waves where felt even in Hamilton city (which my town is only 20 minutes drive south from) so it reached a very long way north.

Unfortunately i was asleep having an afternoon nap when it happened... however oddly enough i woke up (and so did my mum who was having a nap in her room) at the same time the quake struck, so maybe i was awoken by it... although my brother who was awake said he noticed nothing out of the ordinary (we had a small rattle a year back with a Taupo quake so he'd recognize the signs).

Interesting that one part of a town could feel the effects of an earthquakes shock wave that happened hundreds of kms away and the other side of town wouldnt. Wonder if there are long faults around that could let certain shock waves travel for hundreds of kms and effect only localized areas.

Our town sits in the shadow of a large extinct volcano... so who knows maybe theres a web of connections.

Originally posted by quedup
Hubby set off for work 3am and said there was a blood red moon here NZ lower north - did anyone else see it - any pics?

Full moon last night, and given the weathers been overcast, cold and low pressure and little wind the blood moon was most likely simply smog, lots of home wood fires id hazard to guess. Especially if he saw the moon low in the horizon, now if it was at full zenith and blood red then yes id be worried. Hmm 3am, I went to bed around 1am last night and teh moon was around zenith a few hours before then, and i think that would put the moon setting low in the west around 3am, so yeah id have to say smog.

reply to post by BigfootNZ


I hope you are right, however there has been more talk lately that these moderate sized quakes could very well not be giving ANY relief to the built up stress.

reply to post by alysha.angel

A 17 year old boy, Joe Brandt, had a vision in 1937 of a monster California earthquake that occurred when the president had big ears. Given the horrendous spiritual state of America as evidenced by what got elected and the fact that it has big ears, please be prepared through Nov2016. You can find the article at www.umb1.org/?page=cali titled "California Falls into the Sea"; the 4th paragraph.

Originally posted by BigfootNZ
Id actually think the opposite, given the 2 fairly sizable shocks in the Cook Strait yesterday it's a good thing, the more energy that gets used up now the weaker any biggie could be latter.

Sorry mate you are wrong, the energy is not limited, that exact thinking helped convicted the Italian scientists post earthquake when they had told the public that.
If there are many earthquakes it does not mean that a big one can't happen.
I have been amused at GNS's "exact science" of pulling percentages out from thin air (...16% 20% BASED on what?!. )
Relax if it happens it happens, worrying doesn't do anything but increase stress and fear.

I hope you're wrong but I have my wandering thoughts.

I'm in Blenheim and from my first hand perspective it has gone like this;
Friday - "Oh that was a bit bigger than usual"
Sunday morning - Words to the same effect. (also sat up in bed preparing for a guitar falling over)
Sunday evening - this was the good one. Actually got my heart beating.

Besides that, or rather, since all of this she's been pretty calm, but consistent mind you. Often times it's a smooth almost drunk sway but they've done nothing but diminish - despite the readings on geonet.co.nz

Having grown up all over the country earthquakes are common and were always a novelty if anything. Sure I take them seriously but besides Christchurch, the last good one would've been '87s Edgecumbe and anything can happen BUT as someone that has grown up with it all, since Friday, Sunday evening has been the only good shake and it's been doing nothing but get gentler since.

(By the way, hi, couldn't recall my decade+ old account)

Originally posted by roberthsiddelljr
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

A 17 year old boy, Joe Brandt, had a vision in 1937 of a monster California earthquake that occurred when the president had big ears. Given the horrendous spiritual state of America as evidenced by what got elected and the fact that it has big ears, please be prepared through Nov2016. You can find the article at www.umb1.org/?page=cali titled "California Falls into the Sea"; the 4th paragraph.

Na that quake was avoided since we did not elect Ross Perot.
Dodged that bullet.

Originally posted by BigfootNZ
Id actually think the opposite, given the 2 fairly sizable shocks in the Cook Strait yesterday it's a good thing, the more energy that gets used up now the weaker any biggie could be latter.

[color=6699FF]I wonder how solid that assumption is.

Wouldn't that depend on precisely HOW the interlocking components of a fault and adjacent faults were arranged?

It seems to me that it is JUST AS LOGICAL that such quakes could COCK MORE DESTRUCTIVELY other components of the same general area fault system.

I am an ignorant layman but just pondering such things leads me to such a conclusion.

Interesting that one part of a town could feel the effects of an earthquakes shock wave that happened hundreds of kms away and the other side of town wouldnt. Wonder if there are long faults around that could let certain shock waves travel for hundreds of kms and effect only localized areas.

Great question. I hope an answer is going to be posted. Seems logical to me.

Our town sits in the shadow of a large extinct volcano... so who knows maybe theres a web of connections.

.
.

Another 6.6 today. Usgs has it at 6.5... And Geonet keeps talking about aftershocks.

info.geonet.org.nz...



Now how can a 6.6 (or a 6.5) be an aftershock of a 6.5? Look at the table on that page. :shk:

The top quake mags are steadily increasing in the area. And with only a .1 mag differential between those two, this sequence is a prime candidate for those being foreshocks. I triple my warning to New Zealanders. Better watch out. Too many big quakes, too close together, in too short a period of time. Hope not, for your sakes. But damn. Just damn.

And these are just the 5.0 and above, sourced from geonet:

Originally posted by BDBinc

Originally posted by BigfootNZ
Id actually think the opposite, given the 2 fairly sizable shocks in the Cook Strait yesterday it's a good thing, the more energy that gets used up now the weaker any biggie could be latter.

Sorry mate you are wrong, the energy is not limited, that exact thinking helped convicted the Italian scientists post earthquake when they had told the public that.
If there are many earthquakes it does not mean that a big one can't happen.
I have been amused at GNS's "exact science" of pulling percentages out from thin air (...16% 20% BASED on what?!. )
Relax if it happens it happens, worrying doesn't do anything but increase stress and fear.

Bit late in reply to this one, but I was simply parroting what the specialists on TV where saying. Not saying they are infallible or anything, its earthquakes were talking about after all but id trust em in their predictions... all ive got is typical highschool geography understanding coupled with the regular nat geo articles and science docos from over the decades.

The guy tonight on Campbell Live mentioned that these are most likely still 'aftershocks' from the main quake from a month back. Thats what they think, so ill go with it. That being said I wont be complacent, after all the small wobble i felt this afternoon from around 500km away was enough to be unnerving... but i wont loose any sleep over it *knocks on wood*.