Warning to New Zealand- Beware, Monster Quake May be Imminent

No secret the quakes that have occurred. A string of foreshocks, then a 5.8, and now a 6.9.

Well it may not be over. 5.8 to 6.9 is only 1.1 mag difference. And that is borderline, right on the mainshock-aftershock mag difference rule. The fault is still moving (I am watching a live seismo feed with my rig), with aftershocks coming in one after the other. Until it settles, I'd advise you to prepare in case these are just foreshocks and a massive quake strikes.

And it can. The fault length is there to support 8+. Careful, New Zealanders, be safe. And don't forget about a tsunami if it does happen in the Cook Straight, where these others have occurred.

i concur.

I double my warning.

The USGS has dropped the mag of that biggest one to 6.5, which makes the mag difference only .7 now between that and the 5.8, which is in clear violation of at least 1 mag separation rule.

In addition, note how the quakes are working their way towards the subduction zone line.

Wow, and now another sizable aftershock occurring as I type. Estimate: 4.9 to 5.2.

I too concur. It's 3:00 am on East Coast, 7/21/13 and I woke up and compelled to pick up iPhone & come to ATS (and I have NOT been very active here in months). Just an odd, unsettled feeling that something is askew.

Thanks for starting this thread....serious prayer and good thoughts being sent towards NZ.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I live within 100km of the epicenter. It was quite strong, the ground moving beneath you, making you feel drunk.
What are you basing this on? I am quite curious. Is this based on some forumla or historical trend??

thanks

We need to look at this as a positive way,

Many people will endure a foot massage.

can anyone post a link to a good live seismo for n.z ???

Originally posted by bellagirl
can anyone post a link to a good live seismo for n.z ???

Keep refreshing this link:
www.iris.edu...

That's pretty close to the action.

And btw, warning extends for about three days, maybe a week. Sorry, but the earth takes its sweet time.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


thanks mate....stay safe kiwis.....xxx

reply to post by TrueAmerican


If im not mistaken the a 1.1 mag difference means an 11 times amount difference using the Richter scale.
Each number is ten times the magnitude of the the number before it. Each point is actually double the decimal before it
I may be off, but i feel like that's right.

Regardless i still think these quakes are worth looking at.

very very scary stuff. We're a while away from Wellington, and having been through the Canterbury EQ's I'm pretty glad of that! I've been saying all afternoon that the activity has been crazy, then BOOM it all went nuts. Seems to be really dropping off now, so I'm really hoping for the sake of my friends and family in Wellington that this is it and it's going to quieten down from here. I have an awful feeling that it's not over, but I think that is a result of fear - not anything scientific

you feel these two quakes are foreshocks?

well true American the next week or so will tell one way or the other.. tho you could be right .. im still waiting on the big one thats over due to hit somewhere in either northern or southern california all we can do is wait and see.. tho i feel the 6.8 was the main shock..

as we all know new zealand is able to produce much larger quakes . but not this year ....

Geonet Press Release on Seddon Quake Swarm

Geonet have released a statement regarding the quakes. In it they say:

Statistical analysis of the sequence to date provides estimates of the probability of future earthquakes in central New Zealand. GNS Science estimates that in the coming week there could be up to nine magnitude 5.0 or greater events, with an approximately 30% probability (a 1 in 3 chance) of a magnitude 6.0 or greater. The most likely period for this to occur is the next 24 hours, when the probability is approximately 20% (a 1 in 5 chance).

They said this about our quakes in Canterbury, and we managed to fall in that "30% probability" zone and got those large shakes But an eight would require one of the larger faults going. The current activity is on a fault that is capable (they *think*) of producing only a mag 7 tops.

Well there was a recent sun storm that produced a solar flare last week (Thursday). Coincidence?

The earth is due to be hit this morning by a massive blast of solar radiation that NASA warns could temporarily disrupt satellite communications and power grids.

Article Here

Wait, this one was last year,....wrong link. one sec.

reply to post by Rosinitiate

Very true on the solar wind. It was supposed to hit at force on the 19-20th, but going by the '3 day rule' 21st would fit in nicely for cause and effect. But I believe the warning was for it to hit Canada. Doesn't mean it couldn't have 'shifted something' down under!

New Zealand - Great Alpine Fault Earthquake Talks,
posted on 5-7-2013 @ 04:03 AM

Originally posted by MariaLida
Last days we have some stronger seizmic activity in New Zealand, so I will post some info about situation there ..
Think soon in time ahead probably in this years there will come some stronger earthquake of M 7.4 + and much possibility for "The Big One" of M 8.0 + on fault in north-west side of south island probably around Milford Sound area ..

Last EQ of M 8.0+ was in 1717 AD, that's before 296 years ..

edit on 5-7-2013 by MariaLida because: (no reason given)

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by Elliot
reply to post by Rosinitiate

 

Very true on the solar wind. It was supposed to hit at force on the 19-20th, but going by the '3 day rule' 21st would fit in nicely for cause and effect. But I believe the warning was for it to hit Canada. Doesn't mean it couldn't have 'shifted something' down under!

Found this from Space Weather:

QUIET SUN: Solar activity is low. The biggest sunspot on the Earthside of the sun, AR1783, has been quiet for days even though it has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a slim 10% chance that AR1783 will break the quiet with an M-flare on July 21st. Solar flare

Here

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I couldn't sleep at all last night and woke up to look at my clock at the exact times of the quakes. I had this awful feeling in the pit of my stomach and kept having nightmares. When I decided I couldn't sleep anymore I noticed there were no birds chirping. I knew this had happened before but couldn't remember when so I looked it up. The birds went silent for the earthquakes in Virginia, USA (where I am from) too so I checked the news and there were the New Zealand earthquakes. Tons of people went without sleep last night, really interesting if you ask me.

you kiwi's need to stay safe....we Americans here on ATS would rather have you bitching at us, than getting hurt in some damn quake... well, I would anyway

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CME Headed Our Way July 18-20, 2013

Posted by Cheryl Nelson on July 20, 2013 at 11:00am
View Blog

Thanks to PatR...

www.spaceweather.com...



A vast coronal hole has appeared in the sun’s northern hemisphere. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture of the UV-dark chasm on July 18th:

Coronal holes are places in the sun’s upper atmosphere where the magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. A broad stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth on July 19-20.

In addition, NOAA forecasters say a CME could hit Earth’s magnetic field late on July 18th. The combined impact of the CME and the incoming solar wind stream could cause some stormy space weather around Earth in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% – 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 18-20.