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Originally posted by bkaust
reply to post by Nyiah
Absolutely 100% agree with you Nyiah, Maria, this isn't the way to get your 'predictions' noted - no one will even visit your 'prediction' threads if you continue to treat everyone that has an input as poorly as you do. This is one of MANY threads I have seen you belittle and just be plain rude to posters, some of whom have spent a LOT of years sacrificing time and energy researching these topics. We are all here because this interests us, why would you put them down, when you may in fact learn more in a healthy debate?
Have some respect, and you might find others will spare some for you also.
Originally posted by MariaLida
Last days we have some stronger seizmic activity in New Zealand, so I will post some info about situation there ..
Think soon in time ahead probably in this years there will come some stronger earthquake of M 7.4 + and much possibility for "The Big One" of M 8.0 + on fault in north-west side of south island probably around Milford Sound area ..
Originally posted by MariaLidaLast EQ of M 8.0+ was in 1717 AD, that's before 296 years ..
The 1717 event had a moment magnitude of Mw 8.1 ± 0.1, based on the 380-km-long surface rupture. Because the fault has not ruptured for ∼300 yr, it is likely approaching the end of its seismic cycle and poses a significant seismic hazard to New Zealand.
Originally posted by MariaLidaThe next earthquake centred on the Alpine Fault should begin in South Westland and will probably have a magnitude of 8+.
The historical patterns of earthquakes and current research on the alpine fault indicate that it is likely to rupture very soon.
Strata and fault relationships revealed in five trenches excavated across the recent trace of the Alpine fault at the Haast, Okuru, and Turnbull Rivers, South Westland, New Zealand, record the three most recent surface‐faulting events...... The most recent surface‐rupture event was probably in A.D. 1717, and the next prior events were about A.D. 1230±50 and about A.D.750±50...... Our three‐event dataset indicates the average surface‐rupture recurrence interval for the South Westland section of the fault is about 480 years, much longer than the current elapsed time of 295 years. Therefore, the Alpine fault in South Westland may not be close to rupture as is often speculated.
The low-permeability rocks suggest that dynamic pressurization likely promotes earthquake slip, and motivates the hypothesis that fault zones may be regional barriers to fluid flow and sites of high fluid pressure gradient.
The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. All these things mean that the Alpine Fault is a globally significant geological structure.
Originally posted by BobAthome
did u heat it?