The Curve of Advancement-Reversal of a Civilisation

The Curve of Advancement-Reversal of a Civilisation

by John SkieSwanne

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Hi. Since some time now I have been pondering about long-term behaviour of civilisations. What would we believe 500 hundred years from now? I had to know, since I am working on a project which needed that information.

I have come to the conclusion that because there are at least more than one opposing force in any system, Advancement, contrary to assumptions, is not a straight arrow going up towards infinity as one moves forwards, towards the future. Instead, Advancement follows a Curve, a bit like the sinusoidal path of a wave, and this because of a very simple mechanism.

To demonstrate the Curve function, I'll pick 2 unrelated topics and demonstrate how the Curve applies to both.

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The Curve of average A-R of a civilisation:


Example 1: Average Technological Advancement-Reversal
There is a tendency, in any civilisations, to centralize its power to major key figures, let's call this group of key figures the "elite". Whether this "elite" is a dictator or a leader elected by the people doesn't really matter at the end.

When a civilisation starts off, its average advancement, in technological terms, is usually low. This will obviously be the lowest point at the start of the Curve (see the red dot in the illustration of the Curve).

This period will last for quite a long time (see the orange dot). After that period of time discoveries will be made, like electricity. Slowly, but painfully, the average individual in this civilisation will get access to technological advancement. This will mark the point of average technological advancement's rise in the Curve (see the yellow dot).

At one point, like it did around 1900s, the car will be invented, the radio, the telephone, the TV, the refrigerator, everything. The average individuals on this civilisation will reach a peak in technological advancement (see green dot).

They'll be able to keep food, to talk to people across the country, to watch events at a distance. But then what? Internet was invented, then average advancement stabilized at this peak. The reason for that is because at some point around 2000s, technology is dubbed "too dangerous" to be freely given to the people. The people makes some abuses, and the elite amplifies these examples to prove that new technologies causes harm; and for now on new technologies only benefit the military and the elite, but not the common people, so to avoid more abuses. That's why new technologies, like the lightning bolt weapon, and the Joule effect force field, will not accessible to average people. Where technology threatens the well-being of the elite, you'll see the average technological advancement stabilize (see blue dot).

Finally, technological abuses (possibly both from the people and the elite) will become so widespread that a technophobe civilisation will arise. Eventually Internet will be heavily monitored, phones will be banned, anything that can be used as a weapon will be banned by the elite, probably with the support of the technophobes. Only the elite will keep its high level of technology, and ensure having the upper hand. This marks the decline of average technological advancement - its reversal (see violet dot). At the end, the average technological advancement of the people will be so low, that even the elite won't need so much fancy technology to protect itself anymore. So even they will save energy and revert back to more dependable and durable information storage/defences (see second red dot).

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Example 2: Average Moral Advancement-Reversal.
What is the first of all belief systems? Might makes right. A tooth for a tooth.

When a civilisation starts off, this might makes right, a tooth for a tooth, philosophy works well to ensure the survival of individuals. But since it doesn't include more advanced concepts like selflessness, and is in fact focused on selfishness (harm to avoid being harmed), it can only be considered as a low-morality philosophy - in fact, the lowest possible. Thus this philosophy will mark the start if the Curve (see red dot).

This might makes right, a tooth for a tooth, philosophy will last quite some times (see orange dot), because if its sheer simplicity. Yet, at some point, will come along figures which will contest this philosophies, figures like Jesus Christ or Buddha. These will instead expose new lines of thoughts, and promote peace and selflessness instead. Because these points act as a moderator, and enables trust between one and another, many people will adhere to this more advanced morality, thus marking a rising trend on the Curve (see yellow dot).

Morality enables scientists to share and discuss about the wonders of the World instead of wasting their time killing one another. Because of morality, trust emerges. Because of trust, collaboration and schools are developed, and, thus, science springs forward. Morality is eventually considered as a must, and reaches a peak (see green dot).

But at one point many selfish individuals, forming an "elite", seize the opportunity to wear this mask of "religious morality" and start waging wars to kill those they consider "immoral". Great examples includes the Crusades, and the Inquisition. Moral advancement stops rising (see blue dot).

Eventually, the power-hungry elite decides what's moral and what is not. They attempt to monopolize morality. In reaction, religions and morality are rejected altogether, due to their corruption by the elite. This event leads to the separation of belief systems into thousands of faces. Some start considering simply opposing everything which is religious and/or moral, and cite the example of the might makes right concept, as seen in animals, as a reference. Morality drops down the slope of the Curve (see violet dot).

At the end, all morality is considered as human invention, and thus, biased, so are rejected. Might makes right, a tooth for a tooth, philosophy replaces morality, and animals and/or nature are used as reference. Morality drops back at its lowest point possible (see second red dot).

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Conclusion:
And, thus, that is why advancement-reversals are non-linear but in fact sinusoidal.

As a personal speculation, now, I would also like to observe that these Curves can be chained in series. It is quite possible they may form not just individual Curves, but actually a periodic event. The most incredible feature about these, I think, is that they bear striking resemblance to waves pattern, another periodic event. For instance, two Curves, each covering a different topic, can overlap each other in a civilisation's history. And I would humbly venture to speculate that, just like two waves - depending the phase of the two crests - can do, these Curves could maybe even either cancel one another (destructive interference) or reinforce one another (constructive interference). Take the 2 topics above as example. If the morality Curve was to be out of phase with the technology Curve, these two would result in a civilisation with zero general advancement, since the peaks of high technology would give power only to a moral-less society, incapable of further collaboration and thus average advancement, and the periods of moral peaks and science would be hindered by primitive tools caused by average technophobia. But as I said, this is a highly speculative paragraph on my part.

This concludes my post. Thanks for your attention. Peace,

At Time's End,

Swan

Whew. That post took me quite some time to put up, had to write around the clock.

I just realized another thing about the Curve. If they are in series and could form a periodic event, then it is likely the civilisation in the next Curve will have more or less learned from the past Curve, and thus reduce the amplitude of the next Curves. Which means, this periodic phenomena would in theory "flatten out", lose energy towards the extremely far future... Just like a mechanical wave (in the water for instance)!

reply to post by swanne


Nice analysis. Reminds me of SciFi writer Isaac Asimov´s Original Foundation trilogy. Link

reply to post by johncarter


Thanks. Yeah, Asimov was a very good author, always bent on science and deep philosophy. His writings left deep impacts in our modern science. He sparked robotics researches, he sparked psychohistory (which BTW currently is a field that does exists)... Too bad he died, he was one great russian. He showed the way to science.

You failed to take into consideration that the real knowledge and experience die with the individual, the wave will be shorter and more pronounced as technology fails. and people return to illogical faith based societal structures.

Excellent post, though I disagree somewhat as to the causes of the end of technological advancement. If you look at what has happened in the US in the last 30 years, technological advances and modernization left behind a segment of the population (social conservatives) which started an all out war on modernization in an effort to stay relevant. Some wealthy people (church, talk radio, politicians) got on board with the war on society for their own selfish purposes (tax cuts), and we have had 20 years of propaganda about how our society is evil and illegitimate.

Now all of our advances are being outlawed or defunded like stem cell research, social safety nets, abortion, birth control etc.

I would also point out that corporate greed has stopped most useful research. Industry only works on trendy consumer products such as smart phones instead of making affordable housing, fuel efficient transportation, easy to grow food or anything else that would actually improve needy peoples' lives.

reply to post by swanne


Good work swanne. Good writing. I wish I had the energy to critique it, but I will suffice for enjoying it instead.

I think it's interesting to note that the same wave happens in genealogy. In cases where we might consider someone a genius, the generation before and the generation after usually end up living in the shadow of them historically. I would argue that "genius", as it is usually advocated, rises and falls in such a manner genealogically.

Great topic of discussion.

reply to post by swanne


I'm not seeing how you indicate that the observation of one set of events in one system - human civilization - is indicative of anything outside that one specific system or future trends of that system. Without some set of evidential correlations with accompanying proof of relatedness, this is just an observation and analysis of history.

One path of the past, in and of itself, holds no obligation to foretelling future events ... unless there is proof to suggest otherwise. Therefore, your implication that this could be cyclical is just a guess.

Nevertheless, I find your analysis pretty fascinating and astute. And I imagine a very interesting study could be performed, meticulously applying your thoughts to the phases and changes of smaller durations of known civilization.

Thanks for the contemplative post.

reply to post by swanne


It is my opinion you don't have enough information draw such a simple graph and apply it to everything.

Technology has had strange effects on civilizations making their existence and demise far more complicated than what you describe. As information permeates society it becomes almost impossible to remain ignorant. We are at a state of connectivity never seen before.

And no where in your assumptions do you mention immortality and how it would affect humanity

Good job by the way I appreciate the detailed description of your beliefs.

Please do not contribute to the very real agenda that TPTB are attempting, in resetting cycles. There is NO NATURAL RESET. All energies are programmed to progress, advance, grow, given a Teleos Purpose.

Even putting ideas in the mind, can create them, like a bad voodoo curse, so clearing the mind, deprogramming and gaining access to your greater soul and Source, by being kind and overcoming the body suit, and its negative flaws, wakes a person up and brings contact. And then all that is given is encouragement and growth factors. For there is Nothing but Love wanting us to get through this test and everything in the universe is coded and made to be responsive to HAPPINESS and SPREADING HAPPINESS.

Interesting things to think about!

Some historical things to test your theory with:

Originally posted by swanne
Finally, technological abuses (possibly both from the people and the elite) will become so widespread that a technophobe civilisation will arise.

Yet, at some point, will come along figures which will contest this philosophies, figures like Jesus Christ or Buddha. These will instead expose new lines of thoughts, and promote peace and selflessness instead. Because these points act as a moderator, and enables trust between one and another, many people will adhere to this more advanced morality, thus marking a rising trend on the Curve (see yellow dot).

I'm not sure of these two things, but they do have a relationship.

Take the Romans for example ... Yes, Jesus did come but it didn't promote peace or selflessness. It promoted quite the opposite in the long term. In the short term Pax Romana (a time of peace in the Roman Empire) started in 27BC and ran 207 years; long before Jesus's teachings took hold.

Rome had multiple religions, they had applauded moments of mercy, they had social and economic reforms, and cared about morality. Part of the reason Rome fell was because of nature of the Republic; a political system that allowed popular tyrants to rise since the military was entwined with the political system. What filled the gap was essentially monotheism which gave rise to an age of darkness and a lack of scientific advancement.

Oddly, when morality and freedom was 'refounded' it was linked heavily to Greek and Roman philosophers even by Christians. So I'm not sure how to place Rome here? Where does Pax Romana fit on both morality and technology? And what is the relationship between those two factors?

Eventually, the power-hungry elite decides what's moral and what is not. They attempt to monopolize morality. In reaction, religions and morality are rejected altogether, due to their corruption by the elite. This event leads to the separation of belief systems into thousands of faces. Some start considering simply opposing everything which is religious and/or moral, and cite the example of the might makes right concept, as seen in animals, as a reference. Morality drops down the slope of the Curve (see violet dot).

The elites of Rome felt religion couldn't be taken from the people, so they never tried unless a particular cult was deemed a danger to the Republic. The belief systems of 'thousand faces' eventually rolled into one (Christianity) and was then entwined with the government (Roman Catholicism). Might makes right in the dark ages was overwhelmingly pushed by a single faith in the West until the reformation when Martin Luthor inadvertently opened up some cracks and multiple faiths started to make a come back. (Martin Luthor wasn't a fan of rational thinking)

From this we can perhaps agree that rejection of faith is connected to more belief systems, but morality and freedom rose from the ashes, and rational thinkers weren't carrying much might except for the written word and free thinking. Though wars between protestants and the Church would have contributed.

I considered that perhaps the Christian faith was being used by corrupt elites (it was) but the wall I run into is that elites always indulge the religion of their people even when they think it is not a reality. So part of the hypothesis is absolutely correct, when a belief system is used for evil people divorce themselves from it, but I don't think it follows that morality will decrease.

I understand what you mean by philosophy displacing morality, but a few examples of bad philosophy doesn't mean philosophy is bad, and religion itself is a form of philosophy. I take it as you mean 'objective morality' is replaced by 'moral relativism' (sorry to put words in your mouth) but some morals are in fact given to us by philosophy such as inalienable human rights.

One aspect that appears common during a 'fall' is a single philosophy (be it religious or secular) is allowed to dominate a nation without question. I haven't researched this idea deeply, but tentatively it appears to be correct. At times those philosophies seem to arrive at times of desperation. Something to ponder.

I suppose my other question, do you think our new found ability to record more accurate history will alter our curve? The internet has given us a unique tool for self inspection that we never had before, perhaps that might change our curve permanently?

Originally posted by Unity_99

Please do not contribute to the very real agenda that TPTB are attempting, in resetting cycles. There is NO NATURAL RESET. All energies are programmed to progress, advance, grow, given a Teleos Purpose.

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7648830b60e1.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by SLAYER69


Do you believe that ancient "guide-stones" are in fact scattered throughout civilizations of the Past?

You could conceive that EVERY past civilization has them, to some extent even if they are not so detailed like these, or are religious based.



All in all, good thread and one that makes you think.

reply to post by Pinke


Nice to read your post, it made me think quite alot.

So part of the hypothesis is absolutely correct, when a belief system is used for evil people divorce themselves from it, but I don't think it follows that morality will decrease.

I wouldn't be so certain. It seems that as people divorce that belief system, they feel less inclined to trust another one if that other one looks too much like it. Instead they'll try to find a more, er, "unbiased" source of moral reference. Meaning, they will most likely become agnostic, if not atheist. Naturally they still have access to all the atheism-based philosophies, but again, these people might tend to avoid any philosophies that will remind them too much of their last religion. These people will search for something new, unbiased, with more liberty. Because lack of freedom is why, ultimately, they divorced in the first place. So most will settle in something like naturalism, but the range might go all down to satanism, which is basically "nature" used as justification for moral free-for-all:

Founded on April 30, 1966 c.e. by Anton Szandor LaVey, we are the first above-ground organization in history openly dedicated to the acceptance of Man’s true nature—that of a carnal beast, living in a cosmos that is indifferent to our existence. To us, Satan is the symbol that best suits the nature of we who are carnal by birth—people who feel no battles raging between our thoughts and feelings, we who do not embrace the concept of a soul imprisoned in a body. He represents pride, liberty, and individualism—qualities often defined as Evil by those who worship external deities, who feel there is a war between their minds and emotions.

Source: www.churchofsatan.com...

Strong emphasis on Liberty, here.

I understand what you mean by philosophy displacing morality, but a few examples of bad philosophy doesn't mean philosophy is bad, and religion itself is a form of philosophy. I take it as you mean 'objective morality' is replaced by 'moral relativism' (sorry to put words in your mouth) but some morals are in fact given to us by philosophy such as inalienable human rights.

Naturally, one would have to define what's "moral". Good point.

Though, I think there are international efforts to define, objectively, "morality". Once this is done, the ground will be alot less shaky! But I think we could all agree that morality is something akin to "avoid harming others", or a variant of "don't do to others what you don't want to be done to you", or "do to others what you'd want to be done to you".

I suppose my other question, do you think our new found ability to record more accurate history will alter our curve? The internet has given us a unique tool for self inspection that we never had before, perhaps that might change our curve permanently?

Yes, I did speculate that because of our memory (and Internet is a gigantic device of memory exchange/storage), these Curve will, on the long run, lose energy. That is, slow down or maybe even be altered and become linear. Although, I must add, such a complex system can never be absolutely linear.

Originally posted by CB328
Some wealthy people (church, talk radio, politicians) got on board with the war on society for their own selfish purposes (tax cuts), and we have had 20 years of propaganda about how our society is evil and illegitimate.

Now all of our advances are being outlawed or defunded like stem cell research, social safety nets, abortion, birth control etc.

I would also point out that corporate greed has stopped most useful research. Industry only works on trendy consumer products such as smart phones instead of making affordable housing, fuel efficient transportation, easy to grow food or anything else that would actually improve needy peoples' lives.

Indeed. Instead of advancement, all the people got is new fancy iphones. Internet has been around since over 30 years. The telephone has been around since over the last hundred years. No advancement in fuel economy, starvation resolution, etc. Nice observation

I don't understand this obsession with control. Which in my opinion fuels both curves. I'm sure all the info on human domination is passed down from elite cycle to elite cycle. The insanity that somehow there is a way to obtain the capacity to understand how everything works, it is impossible.
BTW those curves look like z-scores from statistics, if the elite are truly the smartest then they should understand that the mean moves mountains not the fringes. This could apply to anything and if I know anything in life it is that balance is key. How exactly is a small elite going to acomplish anything without balance? And yet they continue to fail at this every step of the way. A leader does not take his workforce hostage to get things done. A leader can make mistakes but at the end of the day everyone is well payed, relaxed and motivated by clear objectives be they new or amended by past lessons learned.
They are children.

reply to post by Emeraldous


Control is just a magnification of the elite's desire for harmony. In their clumsy little way, the elite makes all kind of mistakes and stumbles here and there but you can't really blame them, their core intention is not so different than ours. But because they don't know better, and act like little children (as you pointed out ), they seem quite "evil" and all that.

lol Ever saw "Q", in Star Trek TNG early episodes? All he wants is the Enterprise to merge with the continuum (representing a desire for harmony), but he's so unsupportable, he's perceived as a pain more than a blessing. It's a bit the same thing here, I think.

Originally posted by swanne


But at one point many selfish individuals, forming an "elite", seize the opportunity to wear this mask of "religious morality" and start waging wars to kill those they consider "immoral". Great examples includes the Crusades, and the Inquisition. Moral advancement stops rising (see blue dot).

You forgot other great examples like the French Revelation, The Bolsheviks ect. Out of hand social/political movements. Last century the communists were responsible for more human death in their efforts to purge the earth than anyone could have imagined. They had some competitors but nothing came close.

reply to post by Logarock


That's right. And even today, I see more and more people in the US arguing that the US need another revolution. They cite as examples those very revolutions you talk about: how the French Revolution was "successfully" carried out, etc. What they don't seem to understand is that once the people revolutionize, they'll just trade capitalism for a new kind of marxism. And in this new marxism, it is quite likely the Constitution may be re-written, if not abolished. The elite the people don't like will simply be replaced by another elite, elected by the people, but an elite is an elite. And this time, this new elite might be alot more vulnerable to corruption from other philosophies (like neonazism) or simply mafia, which is alot more organized than the normal people. The average advancements will only go down.

Sure, the French revolution was successfully carried out. Does that mean that today, the French people are happy? Nope, they still make protests and most of them hate their government. That's because the true revolution is not in the amount of blood one spills, but in the concepts and ideas one lets take hold of oneself's actions.

reply to post by swanne

Are you feeling any less civilized or immoral ?
This graph does not reflect your personal curve it does not reflect mine.
.