posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 09:37 AM
Here is Obama’s plan to reduce CO2 emissions:
www.guardian.co.uk...
I recently decided to calculate how much of a reduction in global warming Obama’s plan will theoretically have, and I came away rather surprised:
chipstero7.blogspot.co.uk...
Quote from my own post:
So how much difference will this 17% reduction make to global warming? Looking around the net I’ve not seen anyone quantify it. Currently the total
amount of human CO2 emissions per year is around 30 gigatonnes. Of that the US contributes about 5.5 gigatonnes. Reducing that by 17% gives us 0.935
million tonnes. Let’s round that off to 1 gigatonne. That works out at 0.13ppmv per year. That would give us about 0.9ppmv by 2020. To convert
gigatonnes into ppmv see here. The amount of extra radiative forcing produced by a given increase of atmospheric CO2 is supposedly determined by the
IPCC’s equation: RF = 5.35log(C/C0)W/sq.m. Where RF stands for ‘Radiative Forcing’; C0 is the initial CO2 concentration; C is the final CO2
concentration, and W/sq.m stands for ‘watts per square metre’. The current CO2 level (as of 2013 stands at about 400ppmv). Therefore a 17%
reduction in America’s CO2 gives us a radiative forcing increment of 5.35log(400.13ppmv/400ppmv) = 0.0017W/sq.m.
Now we can use the Stefan-Boltzmann law to the question of how big a temperature increase would be produced directly at the Earth’s surface by that
amount of RF after equilibrium was achieved. The Stefan-Boltzmann law states that the radiance of a body is proportional to the 4th-power of its
absolute effective temperature. Initial surface temperature of Earth (T0) = 15.0C = 288K. Using the Stefan-Boltzmann law we get: Initial surface
radiance (I0) implied by T0 = 390.1W/sq.m. Increment of irradiation from whatever source (dI) = 0.0017W/sq m. Therefore new surface radiance (I1) =
390.1 + 0.0017 = 390.1017W/sq m. Using the Stefan-Boltzmann law again (in reverse this time) we get: New effective surface temperature (T1) implied by
I1 = 288.0003K. Temperature increase on T0 (i.e. dT) = 288.0003 – 288.0 = 0.0003C. Therefore Obama’s goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 17% is
expected (using the IPCC’s equations) to avert a global warming of 0.0003C per year.
This calculation is the maximum theoretical warming from CO2 as the Stefan-Boltzmann law calculates it as a perfect absorber of electromagnetic
radiation, or light, meaning that it absorbs all radiation that falls on it. If we applied CO2’s emissivity from experiments by Hottel 1954 and
Leckner 1972 the warming would be so infinitesimally small, you would probably have to add 5 more zeros in front of that number. This whole thing to
me is totally insane. The US is prepared to waste all this money to avert a global warming of 0.0003C/year.
Has the world gone mad over this global warming hype?