Japan preparing for war with China?

Japan has determined China will become Asia's top military power and charted out scenarios for a Chinese attack.
(Japanese preparing for possible Chinese attacks; Asian Pacific News)
There are 3 possible scenarios that Japan is studying and preparing for:

1. A clash between China and Taiwan, China could attack parts of Japan to prevent aid from US forces based in Japan.

2. China would attempt a takeover of the disputed islands between Taiwan and Japan, (called Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China), in order to rally support at home should public criticism challenge the communist leadership.

3. China would take military action to secure its interests in the East China Sea where Tokyo and Beijing dispute the development of gas fields near their maritime boundaries.

This is all happening in the face of a modernization and rethinking of Japan's military "Defense Forces" which China is becoming more and more concerned about.
China Slams Japan's Military Plans; CNN
Japanese Defense Agency Eyes SDF Update; Japan Times

Chinese concerns about Japan have been mounting since:

1. Japan's former Japanese prime minister Yoshiro Mori met for 3 days with the President of Tiawan. Mori Begins Three-Day Taiwan Trip; Taipei Times

2. Japan has been getting ever more deeply involved with the US's missile defense program growing from Japanese concerns over North Korea. This is a 1 billion dollar per year program lasting at least 7 years. Japan Seeks Shield for North Korean Missiles; New York Times

2a. The missile defense issue has now progressed to the point where the Japanese are getting ready to ammend their constitution to allow for arms exports, namely and primarily the export of missile defense components to the USA. "Japan Plans to Develop Missile Components with US"; Agence France Presse, Oct. 12, 2004


How would a military build-up along with a missile shield in Japan affect the western Pacific area?
Thoughts anyone?

(thanks to Intelgurl for providing initial info for this post)

Yes, the Chinese are on "high alert" regarding Japan-Taiwan ties.
Nice links.
Another link here (from ATSNN) :
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Japan is at the heart of a new west-Pacific political reality.

As China grows in strength, neighboring countries will draw more tightly together for mutual protection.

Japan is about to undertake a massive but hopefully subtle military buildup in anticipation of trouble with China.

I expect Japan's rearmament to eventually include the addition of nukes -- assuming that isn't already underway now.

As the curse goes, we live in interesting times. We'll find out how interesting soon enough.

Hmmm, yes, China is becomming more powerful and many nations fear that, but it would be very dangerous for them right now to undertake a war with either Japan of Tiwan, (or even the dangerous high tention in 'tibet')

China in an era of growth would only jepordize it with a war right now because with the current situations between them and the other soviet states (mainly Russia boarder disputes) they would have little backing, AS well, to attack Japan or Tiwan would creat a deficite in China when the products of Tiwan and Japan are needed (mainly computers and computer chips).

Japan and the other countries in that part of the world are right in being affraid, as would any country, but to create offensive plans against China is only making the situation worse by heightening tentions.

I want folks to understand, the Japanese military budget has been 2nd only to the USA for years, and yet it is only 2% GDP. But they have one heck of a big GDP.

America only spends 3% of its GDP on the military. Japan spends only 2%. IF Japan raised it just a bit Japan could contain China for a while even with the population differences Japan has the technology and they have occupied China before.

Originally posted by edsinger
I want folks to understand, the Japanese military budget has been 2nd only to the USA for years, and yet it is only 2% GDP. But they have one heck of a big GDP.

China currently spend between $60 and $80 billion on defence compared with japan's $42 billion

China:
Area: 9,596,960 sq km
Pop: 1,298,847,624 (July 2004 est.)
GDP: $6.449 trillion (2003 est.)

Japan:
Area: 377,835 sq km
Pop: 127,333,002 (July 2004 est.)
GDP: $3.582 trillion (2003 est.)

= Japan and China spends the same amount of money on defence, as in % of their GDP. China, however, has far more land to protect as well as about 10 times more people. I just hope, and believe that nothing special is going to happen


Source: CIA World Factbook 2004

[edit on 9/11/04 by phlake]

Having just gotten back from east asia, and talking politics with a great many people there, I very highly doubt that Japan and China will get into any altercations.

Both China and Japan have much bigger things to worry about than eachother's military right now. While it is prudent for Japan to prepare (many countries do this as part of their standard military designs,) Japan is very worried about their economy. The Japanese economy has been stalled since the early 90s thanks to oversaving and a massive deflation effect. This has proven more detremental to the Japanese people than anything regarding their military.

China is working on becomeing a major economic power and any conflict would hurt that right now. Besides their military is almost totally designed to repel an invasion rather than project regional force. While they are worlking on changing this, their current force projections do not include Japan.

Basically, what is going on is the standard stuff militaries go through when the balance of power shifts in a region, and I doubt there will be a war, just re-aligned military attitudes and power distributions.

Anyways, May Peace Travel With You
~Astral

Originally posted by phlake
China:
Area: 9,596,960 sq km
Pop: 1,298,847,624 (July 2004 est.)
GDP: $6.449 trillion (2003 est.)

Japan:
Area: 377,835 sq km
Pop: 127,333,002 (July 2004 est.)
GDP: $3.582 trillion (2003 est.)

= Japan and China spends the same amount of money on defence, as in % of their GDP. China, however, has far more land to protect as well as about 10 times more people. I just hope, and believe that nothing special is going to happen

Wow 6.5 trilion? Are you sure of this? Where did you get this info?

edsinger: Sorry, thought I typed source in original post.

Source: CIA World Factbook 2004

Dusty1031
Japan and the other countries in that part of the world are right in being affraid, as would any country, but to create offensive plans against China is only making the situation worse by heightening tentions.

The best defence is a good offense.

Also I dont think Japan could take on China.

yup, Japan probibly couldn't take on China, but if Japan were taken, China really doesn't have many allies, I mean China and Russia have actively deployed troops on there boarder (over border desputes), sure they could probibly count in N. Korea, b/c China's hlep in the korean war, But for Korea to join in a war right now would be reckless, being that they are on the top of alot of people's hate list.

So more or less, China would take Japan, then the rest of the world would react, The UN would get involved, china would be embargoed and then if they didn't pull out, there is no doubt the rest of the world could easily defeat them.

I mean look, they have Tibet to the SE, then INDIA who has developed into quite a scarry country military wise, Russia is to the north, and they rule the chineese at technology, (www.abovetopsecret.com... a china vs russia thread) and the US...yeah. so more or less, I don't think either country will attack,

China militarily would probibly own china, but china would get rocked by the rest of the world and would end up w/ less then they started out with, oh , and as I and other people have said, it would not be intelegent for Japan to attack China

although most chinese has a bad impression of Japan,
but china has much more things to do than to launch an attack on Japan,(and any other country or area).anyone with a sense of reason could see this.

but there are always some busybody worrying about the peace will last for too long.and use china's development as an execuse for its military buildup.

i believe that japan would probaly be the one that strikes first (even if there was a war). China would be able to hold their own but not for long. If you think about it if japan gets their miltary to full strength (like they were in ww2) they could anhilate china. In ww2 japan controlled most of mannchuria, pacific islands, korea, vietnam, etc. The japanese were able to kill off 30 million people when they invaded manchuria. This is only speaking if the US, Russia, or England does not step in immedeatly

Originally posted by Atreyu321
i believe that japan would probaly be the one that strikes first (even if there was a war). China would be able to hold their own but not for long. If you think about it if japan gets their miltary to full strength (like they were in ww2) they could anhilate china. In ww2 japan controlled most of mannchuria, pacific islands, korea, vietnam, etc. The japanese were able to kill off 30 million people when they invaded manchuria. This is only speaking if the US, Russia, or England does not step in immedeatly

Haha, every statement you made was hillarious. Why would Japan fight first? They would be asking for immediate "annhilation." Even if Japan gets their military to full strength, it would not be able to hold off the Chinese forces, let alone "ANNHILATE CHINA." And I'm not even talking about using nukes.

How can you even compare Chinese power in WW2 to what it is today. To do so is complete ignorance of thier military.

Originally posted by edsinger
Wow 6.5 trilion? Are you sure of this? Where did you get this info?

and that was in 2003, probably is somewherea arround 7,2 now

MOD EDIT: ABOUT ATS: Warnings for excessive quoting, and how to quote

[edit on 5/14/2006 by cmdrkeenkid]

Whats going to stop China from a quick attack on Taiwan?

The Chinese military is quite a potent force nowadays compared to what they used to have. I can't even think of anything to really say except that they are extremely powerful and well trained.

what is going to stop them from taking Taiwan? They have such force amassed on their side of the Straight that there won't be enough time for any Nato nations to send any support that would amount to anything. And sure the US could send a carrier group or two but that would not be a good idea.

It's important to note also that the US military as powerful as the military channel boasts is a force that is spread too thin and worn while the massive chinese military is situated all in one place.

Nk. vs Sk. will be an interesting fight to see. But China and Japan or China and Taiwan doesn't look like it will be much of a fight. China's military has said in the past that they plan on taking Taiwan in 7 days or less and I don't doubt that. They could probably take Japan in a month if it's assumed that civilian loss of life will be catastraupic.

Whats going to stop China from a quick attack on Taiwan?

The fact that the Parliament of Taiwan is now under full control of the KMT party and that President Chen is being recalled. That is why there is no need for military action against Taiwan for reunification.