reply to post by chunder
A couple of problems with the explosives theory though. An SM-2 warhead is a couple of hundred pounds. A MANPADS warhead is less than 10. So where
did the 90 lbs come from? If you look at a comparison chart of just a few MANPADS systems, the majority of them use HMX, and have less than a pound,
to just over a pound of actual explosives in them.
The SM-2 warhead is in the 137 pound range. So that's too heavy. So we have way too light, to too heavy. Even without exact specs on the amount of
explosives, looking at other missiles we can figure that it is well under the required weight. A MANPADS with a roughly 15 pound warhead weight, has
14 ounces of actual explosives. That still would put the weight of explosives in an SM-2 out of the range required.
As for the data that shows an "outside shockwave", I would say that it shows better evidence of a mechanical failure than it does a shockwave.
I'm looking at the full report now. At 20:31:11, just before the alleged shockwave hit, the aircraft was at 13,772 feet, 288 indicated airspeed (298
knots), with a 3.6 degree pitch angle, and a 3 degree Angle of Attack and a vertical acceleration of 0.9G.
One second later, at 20:31:12 the aircraft was suddenly at 10,127 feet, 100 IAS, with an 8.3 degree pitch angle, and an AOA of 106 degrees, and a
vertical acceleration of -0.89G.
Even with a vertical acceleration showing negative, being that low, there is no way in hell that the aircraft dropped over 3600 feet in one second.
Even with a missile exploding directly below it. The data appears to show an electrical problem, giving spurious readings to the FDR at the beginning
of the event that tore the plane apart.
The EPR data is another sign that something weird was happening. The entire flight, including take off, the highest EPR recorded was on number 2
engine, at 1.51. At the time the blast happened, the outboard left engine dropped to 1.14, while the other three jumped to well over twice what they
had been. At take off, the EPR was 1.34, 1.33, 1.34, and 1.36. At the time of the explosion, they went to 1.14, 2.46, 2.36, and 2.44.