Met Office 'To Hold Emergency Meeting Over Increasingly Unusual UK Weather'

Originally posted by PurpleDog UK

Originally posted by Kali74
reply to post by MysterX

 

No. The cold winter and spring in the N. Hemisphere is due to destabilization of the jetstream which was caused by the rapid warming of the Arctic. Solar cycles have a very small impact on Earths climate.

Kali74

You are dead right...... The fluctuations of the Jet Stream have really caused the problems BUT the question is "what has caused the Jet Stream to fluctuate so much?"

Rgds
PDUK

The Arctic and Antarctic ice melt causes the sodium..(Salt) Levels in the Altlantic to drop...thus the gulf stream gets diluted from Salt water to fresher water causing the ....oh, i dont know...something to do with that anyway....HELP!!

Media headlines about this being an 'emergency' meeting are just the usual sensationalist nonsense.

However, the MetO are having one of their regular workshops next week and this one is indeed to discuss whether there is any specific cause behind the run of cooler and more extreme weather in Britain in recent years

There have been some media stories this morning about a meeting due to be held next week at the Met Office to discuss the recent run of unusual seasons here in the UK.

This will draw together some experts from across UK academia to discuss what happened in three specific seasons and examine some of the potential causes behind conditions.

Workshops of this kind are held on a regular basis on a great deal of issues across weather and climate science.

Collaboration and partnership working is also an integral part of the Met Office’s work at the forefront of research on weather and climate.

Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and chair of next week’s workshop, said: “We have seen a run of unusual seasons in the UK and Northern Europe, such as the cold winter of 2010, last year’s wet weather and the cold spring this year.

“This may be nothing more than a run of natural variability, but there may be other factors impacting our weather. For example, there is emerging research which suggests there is a link between declining Arctic sea ice and European climate – but exactly how this process might work, and how important it may be among a host of other factors, remains unclear.

“The Met Office is running a workshop to bring together climate experts from across the UK to look at these unusual seasons, the possible causes behind them, and how we can learn more about those drivers of our weather. This will continue the UK’s world class research effort to understand more about the drivers of monthly to seasonal climate across Europe.”

metofficenews.wordpress.com...


Personally I think the weather's been fine. I hate heatwaves

reply to post by AndyMayhew


Or they could bury their head in the sand and next year there will be 60% crop deficit, increased flooding and spring being replaced by winter.

Of course being proactive and admitting there is a weather issue isn't too British denial / stiff upper lip / close your eyes and pretend it isn't happening etc.

Originally posted by Alternative4u
This is a good post today, but this all seems to have happened since Japan had the big nuclear accident 2 years ago, and I did read or hear that the planet earth has moved or tilted because of it, has anyone else got anything on that?

It's got bog all to do with Fukishima. We haven't had a proper, decent summer since at least 2007, which is the year the summer flooding began in earnest and our Winters have been getting worse since 2009.

An interesting read:

I’ve made calculations based upon satellite observations of how the global radiative energy balance has varied over the last 10 years (between Solar Max and Solar Min) as a result of variations in cosmic ray activity. The results suggest that the total (direct + indirect) solar forcing is at least 3.5 times stronger than that due to changing solar irradiance alone.

If this is anywhere close to being correct, it supports the claim that the sun has a much larger potential role (and therefore humans a smaller role) in climate change than what the “scientific consensus” states.

emphasis mine


Is it really such a surprise that variability in the largest power source in the solar system has more of an affect upon our climate than we do?

More:

For example, if warming observed in the last century is (say) 50% natural and 50% anthropogenic, then this implies the climate system is only one-half as sensitive to our greenhouse gas emissions (or aerosol pollution) than if the warming was 100% anthropogenic in origin (which is pretty close to what we are told the supposed “scientific consensus” is).

Which makes more sense, that all current climate change is the result of human activity or that at least a portion of it is driven by the sun?

In the bigger picture, this is just one more piece of evidence that the IPCC scientists should be investigating, one which suggests a much larger role for Mother Nature in climate change than the IPCC has been willing to admit. And, again I emphasize, the greater the role of Nature in causing past climate change, the smaller the role humans must have had, which could then have a profound impact on future projections of human-caused global warming.

I will say that I believe we are having an effect upon our environment, that is undeniable. I do not think, however, that it is a large as many would have us believe.

The fact the the IPCC, refuses to even look at the evidence tells me that they are more concerned with appearances than with actuality. Similar to the way in which the pope would not even look through Gallaleo's telescope to witness for himself the moons of Jupiter.

Indirect Solar Forcing of Climate by Galactic Cosmic Rays: An Observational Estimate.



Japan Quake May Have Slightly Shortened Earth Days, Moved Axis, Theoretical Calculations Suggest

Not related, but his does answer one poster's question.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Dr. Roy Spencer is a cherry picker as well as very well funded by the oil industry and conservative think tanks. At the link you provided is a post in which he uses a paper written by among others, Dr. Benjamin Laken... here is an excerpt from an open letter Dr. Laken himself wrote regarding his study.

In the paper, my co-authors and I show evidence of a process which may contribute to climate variability. Many
factors contribute to the day to day variability of the climate, and this is very different from suggesting that our
findings show a trend in the climate, such as that resulting from the effects of anthropogenic emissions. In our work
we find a statistical relationship between changes in the rate of the Cosmic ray flux, and cloudiness over middle
latitudes: rate is key here.There has been no long term trend in the rate of Cosmic ray flux over the last several decades, and consequently, this observation does not support ideas that Cosmic rays are responsible for recent global warming.

Emphasis mine.

When dealing with science blogs and articles that reference papers and studies, it's always important to go to the source and then search up critiques and follow ups. Something science magazines and bloggers (especially blogs written by scientists with degrees) should, but don't do, sometimes rather intentionally as is the case with Spencer.

Please listen to this guy (Piers Corbyn)
www.weatheraction.com...
Not only does he contend that it's solar driven but that we are on the brink of a new little ice age. Whatever - it's a darn sight more than 'variable weather'.

reply to post by starchild10


This guy did get the predictions right.

reply to post by starchild10


Actually, we are still in the last ice age as there is still ice at the poles.

I think when the ice starts to move down and affect a larger area it is called a glacial age.

That being said.....I have often speculated that could be what we are seeing at the moment.

Originally posted by Alternative4u
This is a good post today, but this all seems to have happened since Japan had the big nuclear accident 2 years ago, and I did read or hear that the planet earth has moved or tilted because of it, has anyone else got anything on that?

No. Because nothing has happened to the Earth's position or axial tilt.

reply to post by AngryCymraeg


It shifted 25 centimetres on its axis, which can affect the length of day and seasons, dunno about that small a change though.

EDIT: here we go...

The earthquake that struck Japan on Friday was so powerful that it actually moved the whole planet by 25cm, experts say.

According to Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology the 9.0 magnitude 'quake was so powerful it shifted the axis around which the Earth rotates.

And the U.S. Geological Survey reported that the main island of Japan has been shifted 2.4 metres by the force of the disaster.

The shift to the Earth's tilt will have profound, if subtle effects on the length of the day and the passage of the seasons.

Source

reply to post by Kali74

Solar cycles have a very small impact on Earths climate.

The logic it took to make this statement is astounding...There is absolutely no logical basis for this statement. You would expect the members here to accept the Sun has very little impact on the climate of the Earth? You must be joking...please tell everyone you are joking...

More of the mini ice age, certain scientists have been saying this for years. If this is true, I would like to know where to relocate to, I cannot stand freezing all year.

A recent report.

www.express.co.uk...

As if the outlook wasn’t bleak enough already, meteorologists believe the shivering start to 2013 has been the coldest in more than 200 years.

More worryingly, the combination of sub-zero temperatures and heavy snow experienced across much of the country recently could be the prelude to a new Ice Age that will begin next year and last for 200 years.

Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, of the St Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, painted the Doomsday scenario saying the recent inclement weather simply proved we were heading towards a frozen planet.

Dr Abdussamatov believes Earth was on an “unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop”. The last big freeze, known as the Little Ice Age, was between 1650 and 1850.

Today he said: “The last global decrease of temperature (the most cold phase of the Little Ice Age) was observed in Europe, North America and Greenland.

“All channels in the Netherlands were frozen, glaciers were on the advance in Greenland and people were forced to leave their settlements, inhabited for several centuries.

“The Thames river in London and Seine in Paris were frozen over every year. Humanity has always been prospering during the warm periods and suffering during the cold ones. The climate has never been and will never be stable.”

reply to post by theabsolutetruth


He got the predictions right because he observed the jetstream, he got the cause of what's changing the jetstream, absurdly wrong... if you pay close attention he even debunks himself lol.

reply to post by totallackey


How about you just explain why I'm wrong. If what I said is so strongly illogical it should be pretty easy.

reply to post by Kali74

How about you just explain why I'm wrong. If what I said is so strongly illogical it should be pretty easy.

Yeah...it is pretty simple...Take away the Sun, what do you got?

reply to post by totallackey


Solar Cycle: The periodic change in the sun's activity (magnetic), lasting on average about 11 years.

Not the sun itself... do you still want to discuss why it's logical that solar cycles have little effect on climate?

reply to post by Kali74

Solar cycle

Powered by a hydromagnetic dynamo process, driven by the inductive action of internal solar flows, the solar cycle:
1) Structures the Sun's atmosphere, its corona and the wind;
2) Modulates the solar irradiance;
3) Modulates the flux of short-wavelength solar radiation, from ultraviolet to X-ray;
4) Modulates the occurrence frequency of solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other geoeffective solar eruptive phenomena; and,
5) Indirectly modulates the flux of high-energy galactic cosmic rays entering the solar system.

and,

There are three suggested mechanisms by which solar variations are hypothesized to have an effect on climate: 1) Solar irradiance changes directly affecting the climate ("Radiative forcing"). 2) Variations in the ultraviolet component. The UV component varies by more than the total, so if UV were for some (as yet unknown) reason having a disproportionate effect, this might cause an effect on climate. 3) Effects mediated by changes in cosmic rays (which are affected by the solar wind) such as changes in cloud cover.

and,
Almanac

What Is Solar Activity? The Sun is always active. It has weather. It has storms. And its storms can affect Earth's weather.

How Does Solar Activity Affect Weather and Earth? - #3Weather on Earth can also be affected. Recently, NOAA scientists finally concluded that four factors determined global temperatures: carbon dioxide levels, volcanic eruptions, Pacific El Niño pattern, and the Sun's activity.

Any more questions?

Originally posted by theabsolutetruth
More of the mini ice age, certain scientists have been saying this for years. If this is true, I would like to know where to relocate to, I cannot stand freezing all year.

That's the BIG QUESTION. Whatever the reasons, we are seeing constant weather records being broken. Everything seems all over the place, people are suffering, crops are suffering. a whole village in Germany just got covered by water! I have a bad gut feeling about this. If I was younger I would move in a heartbeat. I've heard the Southern hemisphere suggested. New Zealand anyone?

reply to post by totallackey


In what way did I state the solar cycles have no effect? I said they have little... now that we have established what a solar cycle is perhaps you can show how much effect they have on earths climate and why it's illogical to state they have little.

I'll start with why it's not illogical...

over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.

Link