"India, China and the United States will still be the most populous countries on the planet -- if they still exist -- and Africa's share of the world's population will double to 25 percent. The average woman will give birth to two children."

"If fertility rates remained unchanged from the 2000 rate of 2.83, there would be 134 trillion people in 2300, impossible to sustain."

www.cnn.com...

I don't know if this is good news or bad news.

Surf

134 trillion? Wed have to live on Mars, and Saturn and Jupiter and Plu........

Well... by 2300AD you will not be able to distinguish between a human and a sentient machine in population counts, and certain of either category of entity will not die. So levelling off may not be such a bad idea if this chunk of rock is the only biosphere available to a destructive species. Mind you, nuclear holocausts can have an effect but they also can get in the way of decent space colonization programs huh.

CNN news writers had the same thing in mind when they wrote "if they exist, " I think...

Surf

Interesting article....

You're probably right about what they had in mind when writing that.
As we've seen in the last centuries countries and boundaries have changed due to conflict and I'm sure we can expect more of that to happen in the future.

But can these new boarder's affect population growth? Hmm very interesting, in 300 years however alot can happen, and a possible slow down in births because of things like contraceptives and just life in the 20th century could affect the number. Who knows, I sure wont be around by then.

Yep, anything can happen from now.

This is just a prediction assuming that everything stays the same.

Surf

No problem. NWO has it all taken care of. Let them eat corn.

Wanna baby? 54? No prob, divvy up the bucks and we'll kick start ya. Universal sterility and buy-the-bucket kids... Bet immortality will cost a bundle too. Upload? No problem, where's your wallet?

And it will seem a lot more cramped than many of you think it will be. Think...Global Warming is kicking in at high gear, and if we don't do anything about it, our Eastern coast might start at Mississippi and go to Pennsylvania, and the West Coast might be shrunk. No more island nations...England would be a waste...and much of Eurpoe would become a swimming pool...no more Hawaii...India (which has a lotta ppl) would be done for. Small world eh?

Countries produce less babies as they get more wealthy. With China/India economies rocketing and better technology being developed for food and energy production I can see the world population stabilizing in the future. Unless there are anomalies like crazy dictators, nuclear wars, God comes to destroy 2/3 of humanity etc.

I have a counter argument to your hypothesis. Granted, the leading developed nations like USA, Britain, France, and Germany now have much reduced birth rates. But these nations are considered to be post-industrial. In the early 19th century, when these countries first became industrialised, rapidly so like China, India and Brazil are doing now, their populations skyrocketed exponentially. Here is a graph showing world and UK population to illustrate and quantify this point:-


external image

So, if it can be said that rapid industrialisation goes hand-in-hand with rapid population growth, surely there is the possibility that although these newly industrialised countries have a large populous already, with further economic growth, there could be a further population explosion.

The major problem with this happening is that we as a species will rapidly outgrow our unquestionably finite resource base. There is no way this planet can support a population growth on that scale. I think the natural die off, economic and social collapse, and technological recession would have precisely the effect on population of crazy dictators, nuclear wars etc.

It cannot be said that industrialization in the early 19th century is the same thing that's happening now in China. Back then there were far less consumer goods available than now, those goods make people more self-sufficient and career oriented, therefore reducing the birth rates.
Neither does all technology have to be reinvented, it is all merely "copied" by importing and investment.

See Birth Rates in China: www.cia.gov...
They are really low. India has a bit higher birth rates because a lot of population lives in rural areas but this will be reduced in the future.

People in such westernized countries now fill voids in their life by making money, entertainment, internet, while people in Africa for example are largely uneducated and don't have any wealth to spend on such luxuries so it's more likely they will have babies.

Mechanisms of capitalism and technology will surely compensate and find solutions to every problem humanity might encounter. Just don't listen to socialist (communist) propaganda coming from UN that wants every country to surrender its sovereignty and return to the regimes of 0% GDP growth and no private ownership, all under excuse of "sustainability" and other misleading phrases.

Another viewpoint of this would be that prosperous countries shape public opinion in such way because they don't want the poorer ones to gain wealth because it would change the balance of power.

But in any case, human mind is capable of incredible inventions and I don't think we will hit some kind of a wall in attaining resources, we will simply use alternate materials until we get ready to get new ones on the moon, invent replicator-like machines or better extraction tech.


[edit on 12-11-2004 by Megaquad]

"Slowing population growth aids development. Development requires making investments today to raise living standards tomorrow. But it is difficult to make such investments when resources are already fully used trying to keep up with the current needs of rapidly growing populations. When population growth slows, developing countries are better able to invest more per capita in education, health care, sanitation, and other productive improvements.

Development itself also contributes to slower population growth by leading couples to desire fewer children. Development by itself, however, can do little to reduce fertility levels and slow population growth. Family planning information and services also must be widely available and accessible so that couples can achieve their fertility desires."


www.findarticles.com...

--Saerlaith

Scary article!! I knew about modified pollen and such "escaping" from Montesano grow ops, but I had no idea there was anything like this going on.

I also have the suspicion that GM crop escapes will eventually make it impossible for the average human to grow their own veggies at home. At least with varieteis that produce viable seeds you can harvest for replanting. No more victory gardens, just dependence on engineered "produce" from the stores.

--Saerlaith

They have many sites around the web where you can buy ancient seed varieties from as much as 150 years ago.

My big whip is the scientist w/ every passing day are getting closer and closer to everlasting life breakthroughs.

What then?

I highly doubt we'll(humans) even see 2300AD. I doubt we'll see another 50 years to be honest just based on how volatile everyone is and how many threats(nuclear, biological, etc..) are out there and how much stuff we "dont" know about in our governments' arsenals.

Ok...what else do you doubt...the quality of the air...the quality of the food...the strenghth of the currency...the determination to survival of humans...the....well........ ....well...once that doubt thing sets in....