Severe Weather Threat moving towards the East Coast. - Thursday, June 13th

A very intense storm system is currently tracking towards the Eastern U.S..

This system is capable of producing some potentially dangerous severe weather hazards.

If conditions warrant, some of these hazards could become extreme.


www.spc.noaa.gov...


I wanted to share this - as it's always a good idea to be prepared, and stay informed.

Especially if you're are in the path of these storms.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL TRANSPORT UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH RESIDUAL PLUME OF 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STRONGER WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ROUNDING BASE OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPING REGIME IMMEDIATELY EAST OF SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONGOING STORMS SURVIVE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE CNTRL CAROLINAS INTO CNTRL/ERN VA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE OR AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SWLY FLOW IN THE SFC-3 KM LAYER SOUTH OF SFC LOW. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...ERN MT AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP -- INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN MT AND ADJACENT NERN WY. WHILE STRONG CAPPING -- OWING TO THE PRECEDING INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE -- SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VEERING/SHEAR. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN MT TOWARD WRN SD INTO THE EVENING...AS A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...SERN STATES...

LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS WILL DROP SEWD OVER THE WARM SECTOR AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE EAST OF THIS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT THAT WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

Be safe, Everyone!

_________

*Reminder -

*This is an ongoing situation.


(Radar Loop - Thursday, June 13 - 12:15am EST)

Can we have some of that in Arizona? It only like 112 satanical degrees here in Phoenix.

reply to post by iunlimited491


It arrived here on the west side of Ohio about an hour ago.

Thanks for the Heads Up. .. .. .. .

I shoulda caught your 6:00 forecast.

EDIT:
It has rained a little but the Lightning and Wind are pretty intense.

reply to post by iunlimited491


Excellent Work!

Thanks for the Preliminary Warning. S&F

reply to post by solarstorm


LOL

Yes, our monsoon season wouldn't be so bad if the temps were alot cooler.

Woo, go brown into yellow! Seriously though, I'm happy that it looks like I'll be fairly safe but for those in the more extreme weather conditions please be safe and take care of your families. Severe events are a time to stick together and help out each other. There's a light thunderstorm right now but that's about it. Annoying that it's 2:40 AM and I want to sleep but other than that nothing too bad. Tomorrow we have flood watches for possible downpours but beyond that I think my neck of the woods in PA will be alright.

^^
Thanks, 2 Everyone!
It's not a problem on my end. I love following these things.

_________

Continuing...

Important factors in all of this, are the speed at which the 'derecho' moves towards the Atlantic - and the temperatures of the places it has yet to cross.

Temps in the Mid-Atlantic states are supposed to rise quickly during the morning hours.
Eventually reaching 80-90 degrees by the early-afternoon.

This can destabilize the atmosphere, as convection temperatures would be ideal - causing severe weather.

If these cells converged with perfect convection temps...
and the atmosphere continued to decline in stability...

The outcome could be dangerous.

Here's the latest update from the SPC(NWS):

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WELL DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FOCUSED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A POSITION FROM WRN PA INTO ERN TN AT
13/00Z. A CORRIDOR OF 50KT+ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WV
INTO THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN WIND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF NC.
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN EXPANSIVE AND MATURE MCS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI/NRN IND/OH...WITH A WELL DEFINED
MCS APPROACHING THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS
IS SURGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT WHICH WOULD ALLOW SQUALL LINE TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT PROJECT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF OR PROGRESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. IF THIS
MCS ADVANCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE MAY BE REDUCED IN BOTH INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IT
APPEARS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL TIME FAVORABLY FOR MID DAY TSTM
INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN PA...SWD ACROSS MD/VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR BREACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. WITH
40-45KT CLOUD LAYER MEAN WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IT WOULD
SEEM PROBABLE THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND COULD
POSE A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN PA
INTO SRN NJ SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBS
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by iunlimited491


check out this bow on radar over Cleveland

Wow lightning striking Willis tower in Chicago cool pic

reply to post by goou111

Awesome pictures!
_________________


Very massive storm...


If this hangs around,
and meets up with the warmer temps this afternoon...

It could make for quite a show...


Thursday, June 13 - 4:52am EST

NOTE:
(The link below the pic in the OP - will take you to the 'DAY 2' convection outlook map -
which is now June, 14th.)


('THIS' MAP & LINK - IS THE 'DAY 1' CONVECTION OUTLOOK MAP - SINCE TODAY, IS NOW OFFICIALLY THURSDAY JUNE 13)

Day 1 Convective Outlook - Thursday June, 13www.spc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by goou111


That's an awesome picture!

Just had to say that and put in a 2nd line

reply to post by iunlimited491


I'm in NJ and glad to be off today. Seems it's gonna hit us anytime, some workers checking poles right in front of my home now.

A major storm system is over New Jersey, bringing possible flooding and power outages along with a risk of small tornadoes and powerful "super cell" thunderstorms.

www.nj.com...-rpt-1

While in Chicago Lord Stanley was in town and the Hawks won btw We braced ourselves for this storm. Sox game was cancelled, work was cancelled... Swimming lessons cancelled.... People putting up storm baracades... And then "IT" came... We were not impressed, I heard the "Super Cells" dissapated as they went by Chicago and was worse more south and east of us... My boss comes from La Porte, Indiana and he didn't say a word about the storm either... So I take it as there was no flooding and minimal damage.... Not that there weren't some unfortunate damages taken to some individuals, I guess I got lucky.

Best of luck on the East Coast, stay safe and god speed.

Right outside of DC, the sky turned black for a few minutes around 8am, now there is nothing, it is rather nice out. Supposidely more is to come

Meteorologists were even warning about the possibility of a weather event called a derecho, which is a storm of strong straight-line winds spanning at least 240 miles.

What is a derecho?

"It's a cluster of thunderstorms that congeal into a line, and that line will then start moving east or southeast, and as it progresses the winds increase and produce damage along that path," said Jim Keeney, weather program manager at the National Weather Service's office in Kansas City, Mo.

Derechos differ to tornadoes in scale. Tornadoes are more isolated events - a single parent storm or a single thunderstorm that hits a certain area. A derecho is a very large weather event that covers a much greater area.

www.cbsnews.com...

The first line is moving into the east tn valley right now, about an hour or so from knoxville I guess. No watches or warning yet, but its warm and humid outside, and the wind is blowing pretty gusty at times.

Sorry everybody, I think this may be my fault. It seems my patio furniture has some kind of power to make it rain, for every time I put it out, it pours for days.

Originally posted by solarstorm
Can we have some of that in Arizona? It only like 112 satanical degrees here in Phoenix.

edit on 12-6-2013 by solarstorm because: (no reason given)

Ahh, but it's a dry heat!

When I was in Saudi Arabia folks used to tell me that and for some reason I had the incredible urge to smack the spit out of them.

Buck up, you can look back on all this and smile in December.

Gah, it hasn't even hit here and doesn't look to be dangerous or if it even WILL hit and they've canceled bingo. What am I gonna do without bingo this week, I'll have nowhere else to stir up trouble. That and I was going to use that as another date with the new fella just to test how much he's willing to get into if he'll sit and play bingo for three hours.