Derecho Risk from Midwest to the Ohio Valley TODAY June 12 2013

Accuweather

So it seems there is the chance of wild weather happening this afternoon across the midwest to the Ohio Valley.

Ingredients are coming together across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley for a dangerous outbreak of severe weather with widespread wind damage similar to that of a derecho.

Details of storm track and strength

Thunderstorms will begin along a corridor from east-central Iowa through northern Illinois late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The thunderstorms that develop initially in this location will have the ability to take on some rotation, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially in and around Davenport, Iowa, Rockford, Ill.; Sterling Ill.; Ottawa, Ill. and Chicago. The thunderstorms will then begin to congeal into a bowing, or backward 'C' shaped line as they reach northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan. How much of a bowing shape the thunderstorms can take on will play a role in determining how much wind the storms can produce, and ultimately, whether or not a "derecho" fully evolves.

Everyone stay safe out there today and report if weather starts to turn nasty as a warning to those further ahead in the path. But don't risk your own safety to do so.

Please see the link above as to what a Derecho is and what it can do.

So it seems either people are not aware or don't care about this forecast...

from NOAA

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS MUCH OF INDIANA WESTERN OHIO ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SURROUNDING AREAS...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE AND ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY....LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EARLY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

This covers a large portion of the upper midwest and cities.

reply to post by whatnext21

I was just checking out the forecast and saw this.

Those Derecho storms are nasty business. I had never even heard of one until last year. Let's hope there's not a repeat!

Its common definition is a thunderstorm complex that produces a damaging wind swath of at least 250 miles (400 km),[7] featuring a concentrated area of convectively-induced wind gusts exceeding 50 knots (58 mph; 93 km/h).[8] According to the National Weather Service criterion, a derecho is classified as a band of storms that have winds of at least 50 knots (93 km/h; 58 mph) along the entire span of the storm front, maintained over a time span of at least six hours.Winds in a derecho can be enhanced by downburst clusters embedded inside the storm. These straight-line winds may exceed 100 miles per hour (160 km/h), reaching 130 miles per hour (210 km/h) in past events.[11] Tornadoes sometimes form within derecho events, although such events are often difficult to confirm due to the additional damage caused by straight-line winds in the immediate area.

Derechos

So basically hurricane strength winds are entirely possible. Stay safe up there.

I certainly hope that this turns out to be less than predicted. Where I am Southwestern Ontario on the north shore of Lake Erie, we have been relatively lucky in terms of storm damage. It seems many times the cold water from the lake dissipates these storms most times. Here's hoping. About a week ago we had the most rain i have ever seen for up here, 87 mm in about 3 hours.

just noticed that the time seems to be messed up, it is not 9:22 pm here?

It pays to watch your local radar and look for the "bow echo" formation on these storms....as was explained, the storms do not stay in a straight line, they bow forward in a backwards C shape, indicating high winds. The greater the bow, the higher the winds.

High winds in the midwest mean that trees will be blown down....on houses, cars, people, and power lines. This could be a situation of large power outages which take a long time to correct.

Stay alert, be prepared, and watch the radar. Below is the link I use (Texas Tech / Mesonet). You can drag it to any place in the US, and it also shows the position of every storm chaser. That is worth noting because storm chasers will show up where the storms are expected to be the worst. However, if you have a local radar you like to use, that's cool too....just remember to use them and to watch, if you're inclined to do so.
www.kcbd.com...

If you're not big on watching radar, or you don't understand what you're looking at, keep connected to a local news station, via TV, internet, or radio.

Stay safe, y'all!

reply to post by whatnext21


This sucks!! I live in southwestern PA and I heard about this forecast this morning....It is scary to imagine hurricane type winds with no tornado or funnel cloud!!

We will keep safe up here and I hope there isn't massive hail they are calling for also!!

It sucks because it is like 85 degrees outside right now!!

reply to post by Chrisfishenstein


I wish it was 85 degrees or 27 degrees Celcius here. The wind is always cool and only warm if you are out of it. Right now only 22 but the weather guys try to make it feel warmer by saying it 'feels like' 27. Mostly sunny skies now, i am sure that will change as this thing moves westward.

I am right in the path of this thing and we had a similar storm around this same time last year.

Some were without power for three weeks, we had to go out of state to get gas and ice, it was bad. The red cross even made an appearance. The damage was extensive.

It was NO joke.

We ran from that storm in the car, so I'm obviously extra anxious this time around.

We feel more prepared this time.

To all who will potentially be affected, go get some gas and groceries, get your coolers ready, and find somewhere safe to go ASAP if you don't have proper shelter, and stay safe!

reply to post by daryllyn


I think i am just across the lake from you and was not adversely affected by the one that happened last year. Just heard it being covered on CNN and it could possibly affect 74,000,000 people.

Another concern is that it is still forming and gaining strength from the heat of the day which is a bad thing...

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Thanks for your description of the storm to come and the link to the weather radar i am sure i will be accessed frequently today and hopefully alert people before the storm hits. If it reaches the potential they think it will.

reply to post by whatnext21


Be glad that you weren't, it was horrible.

We are leaving in a few hours for a safer area. Where I'm at, its open fields, out in the country, no storm shelter, no emergency sirens..... nothing.

No way am I sticking around...

I looked here last night for a thread on this. I'm around 25 miles east of Columbus, in Millersport (on Buckeye Lake) and last year it came through and we lost power from the 29th of June til the evening of the 4th of July. It was 100 degrees and absolutely miserable.

I feel like this is a bad omen. Last years derecho occurred on my sisters birthday and tomorrow happens to be mine. Hopefully there aren't as many weak trees this go around.

Keep us in your prayers please!

reply to post by daryllyn


It was bad wasn't it?

You know you've hit the big time in a storm system when Homeland Security sets up a staging area in your tiny little community to bring water and ice.

So depressing to even think about it.

And when it rains it pours - our sump pump just went out.Lol

Here is a link to information on the Derecho that happened on June 29, 2012

Derecho Storm Track of June 29 2012

reply to post by Myrtales Instinct


Well guess you better get that replaced asap. My biggest fear is the hydro going out and i don't have a generator. Wouldn't know how to hook one up if i did. darn. I have a basement, but does me no good if water is flowing into the sump pump and the hydro goes out, i'm ducked.

Great.
I live in South Bend, IN (north Central IN)

Looks like I'm gonna have a hell of a night.

I just checked out the map on Intellicast and it appears that where I am is surrounded by storms but directly over me is clear.

I must have special powers

Update from NOAA a portion of the moderate risk area is raised to severe risk

Pretty good link I think for a report, gives a lot of info for the regions affected.