Chances of a Carrington Event during the current solar maximum.

Hi,
What are the chances of a Carrington Event during the current solar maximum given there's been some X-class solar flares.

reply to post by Conspiracyskeptic

No way of knowing.
However it is thought that events such as that of 1859 occur on average once in 500 years.

reply to post by Conspiracyskeptic


all i know there is quiet out there.. check the update in this link..
Hopefully this link can help you..

www.solarham.net...

spaceweather.com...

reply to post by Phage
good morning Mr.Phage.. how can you so sure every 500 years? back there there is 4 time x class flare ejected from the sun..

reply to post by cheesy

There is evidence in the form of radioactive isotopes found in ice cores of events like it. About once every 500 years.

It was not a Solar flare which was the cause of the 1859 geomagnetic storm, it was an Earth directed CME which was associated with a Solar flare. Estimates of the flare put it at greater than X10. An X10 flare is very strong (hundreds of times stronger than the flares which occurred a couple of weeks ago).

But again it is the CME which causes problems, not the flare. There could be a powerful flare but if there is no CME or if the CME does not hit Earth there will be no geomagnetic storm. For example:
www.spaceref.com...

Pretty slim considering this is actually a below average solar cycle as far as activity is concerned.

NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there

wattsupwiththat.com...


www.auroraborealispage.net...

Wow... Where was I to have totally missed this??

News of a massive solar flare goes viral. Soon after, the power is out. Phone's dead. Water taps are dry. Radio is static. Days pass with no news, just people getting more crazy. A week later the fight for survival has already begun.

The Carrington Event

I didn't know they made a movie? They show that as May 11 2013 release. Anyone seen it? Any good?

As for the real event? Phage is right on for time....500 years is about what Science figures on these.

Ice core samples have determined that the Carrington Event was twice as big as any other solar storm in the last 500 years. What would be the impact of a similar storm today? According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, it could cause “extensive social and economic disruptions” due to its impact on power grids, satellite communications and GPS systems. The potential price tag? Between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.

Source

The above link has some good descriptions of the Telegraph lines running better without electrical power than with it. The air itself carried the charge which also started some brush fires from electrical arcing off the telegraph lines across the county.

This link has a list of first hand reported accounts from 1859 and the observed effects of the event itself. The Aurora was 'enjoyed' as far south as Venezuela. It was something I don't personally want to ever see a repeat of while I'm around. Not in this high tech based world, anyway.

Contemporary Accounts of the Carrington Event

it's been something of a side hobby of mine to learn everything I can about. The good thing is, there would be no question or hiding it if another happened. The Solar Flare that indicated the start of the event was clearly visible from Earth, even if people of that time didn't fully appreciate what they had just seen or the importance of what it foretold was coming right at them. They found out, soon enough.