reply to post by JoeP2247
Pakistan's leadership is prone to making big plans disconnected from reality. The generals also have a habit of lying to their own population and the
An example is the conflict of Kargil (1999). The civilian estimate of Pakistan's losses in that war is 3000 men when NLI was routed. However official
Pak army figure is 450, a goal seeked figure to match around 550 declared by India. (Pakistan's losses always have to be lower than India to keep up
The following has to be kept in mind:
1. So far, India/Pakistan wars have been short duration and limited. There have been more losses during 'peacetime' - terrorism etc., than wars.
2. The wars did not affect general public, so most people know what their leaders told them, much of which is made up stories.
3. The size of forces of both countries was relatively small till the last war fought in 1971.
4. There has been a considerable expansion of forces since then, more so by India.
5. The WMDs have introduced a new dimension, that is, it introduced civilians in the war arena. This was not so before.
6. The information revolution has made civilians much more aware of military matters than they were in earlier wars.
7. There are two things Pakistani generals fail to take into calculation -
a. The attitude and reactions of Pakistani masses who are reeling from decades of misrule.
b. The weaknesses in industrial base of Pakistan to sustain a long drawn conflict.
A blitzkrieg by Pakistan into India is delusion. There are many reasons to it:
1. At least half of Indian army is deployed in the operational area close to the border, where the forces can be in the area of action within
2. India's airlift has improved considerably. My estimate is that India can move 100K soldiers by air in a day.
3. Pakistan lacks the size of forces (both men and material) that can give it an overwhelming advantage on any portion of the border.
4. The surveillance capability of India has improved greatly in the last decade.