World War III

reply to post by JoeP2247


Joe, understanding China is difficult due to to strong cultural differences.

Do you have a breakdown of what "internal stability" means?

The article includes "food security" in it. If subsidized food is included, the budget will definitely be quite large.

A large country like China will definitely have a very large police budget.

India's police organizations have more than 2 million servicemen. I am not surprised at China's numbers.

Can you quantify USA's internal stability budget for comparison?

That could include State and city police, DHS, FBI, militias, Spying agencies, food stamps, medicare and medicaid, EPA etc.

reply to post by GargIndia


Garg - re read the article. And It is certainly not the only such report out there.

What it does say is that China is having to spend more money on riot control than the spend on there military - a military which, by the way, is bigger than the US military.

They have to do that because they are facing at least 180,000 protests a year, and probably more than that since those are China's numbers. By way of reference I know that in 2004 (my last year in grad school) China had 40,000 protests reported. However one looks at it these incidents are up about 400% .

Joe

reply to post by JoeP2247


I agree with you that social stress in China is going up. It has to as uneven distribution of wealth shows up as a result of economic progress.

China has a long standing problem of corrupt civil servants (stark similarity with India).

So we have a system that favors businessman and civil servants, at the expense of all others.

China is a country in transition and it will endure high social stress during that transition.

What conclusions we draw from that (in terms of 'revolution') is a personal preference.

I do not see a revolution near term in China. The Chinese government will be able to manage its internal situation though with difficulty sometimes.

Garg - what do you make of this -
indiatoday.intoday.in...

It does not go into detail about what Pakistan's new doctrine is but I would have to believe it is some kind of preemption or some type of blitzkrieg to overcome India's cold start doctrine. Realistically, I don't see how Pakistan could out mobilize India without this - some kind of sneak attack.

Maybe the increase in ceasefire violations in Jammu and Kashmir are tests of this new doctrine.

What do people in India think? They do not cover this type of world news terribly well in the US.
I think if Pakistan thought they could win a war with India they would not hesitate.

Joe

reply to post by JoeP2247


Also Garg -or anybody from India - I know there have been 31 ceasefire violations by Pakistan in the J and K areas this year but how much of an increase is this really - in numbers or severity over 2012?

How is the India press covering this?

Thanks,

Joe

I was looking for Israel specific news that came in today.

www.israelhayom.com...

"I will seek a negotiated settlement [with the Palestinians] where you would have a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes the Jewish state," Netanyahu told Reuters when asked about Bennett's remarks."

This is where we are stuck in Israel vs Palestine issue.

What is the point of having a Palestine State which cannot defend itself?

reply to post by JoeP2247


My understanding of India/Pakistan situation from Army sources is that things are stable at this point.

However India/Pakistan situation is hard to predict.

I think that Nawaz Sharif coming to power reduces chances of a conflict. We shall have to monitor the situation though and let you know if events unfold.

reply to post by JoeP2247


Most of it is fenced border. Major unfenced areas are in Kashmir where fencing is difficult due to terrain.

Cases of firing or infiltration are routine in Kashmir. They are dealt with using minimum force.

reply to post by JoeP2247


Joe, my predictions may seem at odds with common sense.

The West has significant military lead over rivals at this time. I do not dispute that.

However events in future (and that currently underway) may blunt that lead.

A careful reading of the history shows that scientific advancement does not always ensure success in war.

The West is remarkably elitist. This is its strength as well as weakness.

Possible WWIII precursor event - Ammunition dump fire in Samara, Russia

www.guardian.co.uk...

It could be accident or sabotage. Sabotage is higher probability as older ammunition may be heading for Syria.

reply to post by GargIndia

Wouldn't be a bad idea to say it blew up, when it didn't all blow up.
Then you could send it wherever you wanted to and avoid accountability if it ended up somewhere it maybe shouldn't have ended up.....

Stability Risks for China:

1. Massive unemployment (Mitigated by massive construction projects)
2. Food shortages (Mitigated by imports)
3. Corruption in government (government has no choice but to tackle this)

The banking system is beset with loans to real estate. Same as Japan. This will collapse as the returns from real estate are going down. However China can replace bad loans with fresh money (same as USA). China can always print money as needed. China does not have a Rothschild central bank.

China is trying hard to cool the property speculation - sort of tapering down the real estate investor expectations. This is to avoid a sudden collapse. Money has been made more expensive so that people avoid taking fresh loans.

reply to post by GargIndia


They have a very bad pollution problem. The two main causes of the protests there are in fact corruption and pollution.

They have a "grow at all costs" policy so they cut corners and dump toxics everywhere, especially acute near rivers and lowlands - near the factories, power generation plants. They have really done a number ruining older farmland which they are turning into a big sewage dump.

I think in the end of WW3:
- North America will be a country.
- Europe will be a country.
- And China will wait and be the last to join the war and take over the Asia in a deal with the US. Because they have a plan far more advanced in time. This next war is not the one they are organizing for.


ps: Mars is open for taking.

reply to post by Reidhos


Well the predictions are very bad.

USA will be split in three parts - one will merge with Canada, other will merge with Mexico; and the last one will most likely be ruled by China.

USA is awash in debts - debts to foreign governments, individuals and companies that it can never pay.

Paying debts via monetary expansion cannot last forever. It will end as it destroys dollar as an international currency.

Europe will see large changes. A significant northern part will come under Russia. Germany, France and England will survive as countries. The rest is very difficult to say. It will be BAD.

People forget that the MAFIA tactics of USA (rule of the strongman) has its limits. Things revert back to basics ultimately. The BASIC fact is ASIA now generates more than 50% of economic value added. It has been put down by currency manipulation and strongman tactics. The question is how long?

Coming Challenges for INDIA

a. India will have to face a stagnant or declining services outsourcing industry. This will result in very high educated unemployment.
b. Indian government has absolutely no money for infrastructure projects or other employment generation projects due to heavy subsidy burden.
c. Any increased military spending due to external factors will put massive stress on Indian government. The military better start focusing on domestic suppliers who can be paid in the local currency.
d. FOOD SECURITY - India is critically dependent on fuel imports from the middle east. The disturbances in the middle east can create massive problems for India's transport, energy and fertilizer sectors. Indians are most at risk of dying from hunger in a war situation.
e. CORRUPTION - An issue which is eating at the core of Indian democracy but people are not paying attention.

reply to post by GargIndia


You know -China is the 2nd largest economy in the world. Over 100 years ago China was also the 2nd largest economy in the world. Nothing has really changed.

And if there indeed is a WWIII in our future I think the safe bet is that the US will come out on top - financially anyway - as it did in WWI and WWII.

China, on the other hand, will simply implode.

Joe

Wow it looks like India and America better get off our bankers and start manufacturing stuff since we do it better anyway.

reply to post by JoeP2247


There may be Americans who are very rich, but in general Americans are not that rich.

The middle class (remove top 10% and bottom 40% - You get the remaining 50% of the population that we call middle class) is no better off in US than in China in terms of net wealth per household.

The main issue is US finances are severely stressed. The massive 1T per year monetary expansion points to a very bad state of public finances. Since public spending is a big driver in US economy, US remains vulnerable to a shock.

I like your optimism and your patriotism. I agree that US democracy is far better than a Chinese authoritarian State or a Muslim Emirates. But the US and other Western democracy have committed big mistakes, the biggest is depending on slave labor in foreign countries. This will prove to be West's undoing.

The slave labor situation is really bad. I give you one example. It costs me at least $2.5 for getting a shirt stitched in India (by a Tailor). The Western buyers however pay less than $1 for the same job to be done by a garment factory in India. The shirt that you buy in a store in USA is made by slave labor. The same is true of almost all consumer goods you import from foreign countries. Getting these "cheap" products means installing and keeping oppressive regimes in foreign countries.

What is slave labor? If a worker gets paid inadequate money (for a 9 hour workday) to cover housing, food, medical, and other basic costs for a small family of 4, I consider that as slave labor.

reply to post by GargIndia


You've said before India may lean more towards East Asia rather than the west if WW3 happens, does this article means any significance to you?
China's border row with India has misfired, India Japan closer

China's three-week border stand-off during April in Ladakh, in Indian-administered Kashmir, had misfired and Beijing's move galvanised Indian leaders into finally sealing an historic security deal with Japan.

China's three-week border stand-off during April in Ladakh, in Indian-administered Kashmir, had misfired and Beijing's move galvanised Indian leaders into finally sealing an historic security deal with Japan.
....

Now i don't know what will happen on that time but Japan, although it's in East Asia, still is very much as western as it gets and it's highly doubtful Japan will ever ally itself to China or the other way around due to its bad blood history.