New world alliances

Seeing the number of "can____ beat____" posts I thought I'd just summarize the current situation in strategic relations around the world:

Russia's Perspective:

recovering from theblow it suffered after the USSR broke up russia has gained economically in the last decade. It has always seen India as an ally to counter previous chances of a quasi US-China link up, esp during the cold war. Things have changed now though, Russia has made great overtures towards china in terms of friendship n the last decade, seeing their friendship as a counter to a unipolar US world. At the same time observing the the fact that the US is trying to bring India under its coalition, Russia is wary of the fact taht India might finally move towards the US in view of the russia-china alliance. Russia would not wan to lose India at the cost of gaining chinas friendship. Hence its proposal for the Russia-India-China axis to counter the west. Only splinter , China and India never did get along.

US perspective:

After "winning" the cold war the US was faced with a new threat, the Chinese. Though trade with the Chinese is plentiful, the anxietty the US exhibits over the chinese is evident from various current events. Also the joining of Russia and China as a team definitely worries the US. Hence the US is looking to India, a stable democracy in the region to balance that factor out. Only problem, post 9-11 US needs Pakistan to keep terrorists in check, a fact India isn't to happy about. Hence objective is to keep India close enough and prevent it from joining up with Russia and china.

Chinese perspective:

I REALLY DONT KNOW!! Can chicoms buddies of mine help me on this one??!
Only thing i see is that china wants to act as a buffer between russia and the US while slowly improving ties with India, (not enough to alarm pakistan). Would they be for a Russia -Inida alliance? ..I dont know..

Indian perspective:

After the breakup of the USSr relations with russia were somewhat softened. Though recent agreements on extending and building on the "friendship treaty" signed way back in 1971 seem optimistic. India is war y of the fac that Russia and China are getting to know each other and doesn't want to be left out. India is also pleasantly surprised as recent US overtures for building ties. End result India is another buffer between the russians and the americans moreso than china as china and the US don't get along as much as India and the US do esp. on military terms.

European perspective:

With the development of the european union, europe has shown that in the new world it is losing its dependance on america for assistance of fall sorts. Europe is also improving ties with Russia on her own. IMHO Europe hasn't had much to do with china since the very beginning. They imposed a ban after tianenmen and i don't know how relations have develope since then. In contrast Europe and India havve always shared a healthy relantionship, esp with the UK and France.

Hence a war in this scenario is very improbable. Lets just all be freinds!!

Sure,why not

Information about what the chinese want?I have no idea.The government does not tell everybody about its plans.

US is dominating energy markets and so it has control over world economy in general, many developed countrys show high interest to find more and more replacing energy forms to counter this fact. Cant say in future whos ally with US cause G.W.B havent yet shown its new cards, does war on terror continue to new country or does US just stay in iraq and start to run its oil business, so this next 4 years can dramatically change US ally situation, running absolutic politics, "your with us or against us" really drive any even a little intelligent person to fear that anyone can be seen as threat for US global politic. So US will not run out of allies, cause old ones are replaced with new ones, like Old European countrys France, Germany are less cooperative, so Poland replaces em.
Economical US has said it has mexico for cheap labor so if China start to be less cooperative with US that wouldnt cause major catastrophy, still most unlikely China does so for next 20 years. US is still one of the world countrys that can self substain itself by having large enough markets inside.

Far as i see on economic view European countrys as invidual invest a lot to China / India / S-Korea, still the truth is that there is many people that see it as threat cause basic labor work drain to Asia, so Europe future is to maintain high education and corporate HQ's in Europe. European investors still got big share holds on Asia so economical bond between China, India is very tight.
EU needs labor from africa and new european union countrys to continue rising, cause old countrys are losing people instead growing due fact seniors are major population while tax payers become minor. US isnt facing same problem bad as EU cause its in fact growing in numbers all the time, and Mexico will probably work as US labor market.

Russia doesnt need military allies currently, it always has old good trumpcard (nukes), but economical russia is allied with best buyer of its natural resources or military equipment, still doesnt mean russia come to aid those buyers. Japan and Europe seem to be Russias future allys both, for example Russia is building oil pipe for Japan, maybe in future China, but so far seems Japan is higher bidder.

Far as i read about China i believe its only interest is to maintain high economic rising and avoid all sort of conflicts, so its just big giant noding to other countrys in current situation to gain more strenght.
Also must say China has can quickly become very educated due fact 1 child policy run parents to put more and more effort to their only child. Still China is generally run by its peasants that wont for long time get to enjoy economic rising.

India interests seems to be same as China, fighting together for investments to gain more economic ground so India either will possible only to be drafted at military operations as peace keeping, but alliance as NATO not for a while so its going to stay as another sleeping giant.

For mutual protection pacts i would say EU and Russia going to agree one in near future, while US influence runs weaker.
India or China would be possible candidates for US mutual protection pact / military alliance, but cant figure which one would it be.
Japan seems to break from US shackless and start to fund its own military more and more cause of fact it loses influence in Asia all the time.
Mostly i still see other than US will not run military campaings out from their soils for long time, everyone seems to focus on their economy rather than running war, unless theres some major energy crisis that caused more countrys to join WWII.

the only thing I have to say is that the indians are really overestimating themselves. You are not even in the top 20 in terms of global trade (tiny ireland trades more than you do and Korea's economy is bigger than yours) and you are so frigging poor that you have the world's most poor people and you people only live on average 60 years. You better feed your people first before you think anything grander.

[edit on 6-11-2004 by Hawkssss]

No one knows what the CHinese want, they are communist and don't tell anybody anything. But you can bet they would love to control the US

I think if the China grows stronger the USA will build "cage for the chinese tiger" a defensive alliance and it will consist of:
Taiwan, militarized Japan, South Korea, Vietnam(yes Vietnam), India and Thailand.
Supporters/allies : USA and Australia.
Russia and china will come closer (I don't know how close), NATO will be dissolved (or become less important) and EU will form it's own independent defensive organiztion (but will "stay home" and not expand).

Eh if Euros dissolve NATO and form their own org, the French will be at the center with the Brits...so they will definatly not stay at home.

USA attempts to isolate china will fail as china is increasingly becoming an essential economic link in the chain. Most countries will not give up this emerging market just to suit some american obsolete obsession.

The truth is China does so much trade with America, a sudden stop in exports to USA and the rest of the world could cripple companies, yes, literally cripple them.
The thing where the "cage the Chinese tiger" scenario is unlikely to succeed. Thailand will NEVER do anything to China. 60 percent of their economy comes from tourism and almost everyone who goes to Thailand is Chinese. Think about the damages it could cause if China stops the airlines going to Thailand.
Not so sure about vietnam.
South Korea is showing doubts of doing everything US tells them. All they want is to get rid of North Korea but I think a unification through war is more probable than a peaceful unification.

The emerging market is just fiction.You must remember one thing : nor America or EU will ever see some money from China. The only thing that foreigners were able to sell there was - opium. When they realize there is nothing to gain in Chinese market and much to loose they will cut down the trade. BTW in my opinion the "global economy" and WTO will not last more than one decade.

What does that have to do with anything? How much your country "trades" or "how long its people live up to" is immaterial w.r.t. strategic alliances.

If thats the case then yeah sure everybody must go ahead and befriend "Ireland" because it has a higher mortality and trades more tahn India; hence in your opinion " Ireland" is of greater strategic importance..(no offence to Ireland intended here, just using it as an example, could have used singapore also)

You know Hawksss, your lucky i even respond to such posts because i trust you will refrain from mindless statements in the future. But you prove me wrong every time. Everybody else just ignores these "emotion driven" posts of yours...

Get with the program or move yourself to the thread i've specifically opened for people like you who like to make blatant accusations w/o any bases.
Here's the link..enjoy

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I dont know what your aiming with this, but fact is that India is growing as does China and better living conditions come from better economy, you cant really say China isnt more close to India in living conditions and per capital $ than Ireland, if 150 million Chinese enjoy new economy while 90% peasants still live like they been living last 50 years.
But for future still seems more favor to China than India cant disagree on that, but populations are so huge that even low capita means both countrys got high GNP.

^^ What im trying to say is that per capita income has very little to do with the very jist of this thread...So do life span...those are independant topics...
India has a v low per capita income , maybe lower than china's and okay its "trades' lesser thatn Ireland..but that doesn't mean that its strategically unimportant in the world scenario. Thats my point....

This constant attempt to take pot shots at Indias role in world politics by Hawksss is ridiculous.
And I didn't even mention the fact about chinese peasants that Observer has pointed out, simply because it doesn't undermine (greatly) China's role in world politics.

[edit on 7-11-2004 by Daedalus3]

they are not comunist.

Oh, so the fact their government controls every aspect of their citizens life, from where they live to what jobs they can have doesn't make them communist?

Ever wonder why you don't see to many chinese citizens online? (hint: the chinese government doesn't like the free thought process the internet provides.)

If you want more facts I'll go online and research them, can't garuntee I'll find much though because the Chinese government doesn't want anyone to know about this stuff.

you obviously have a lot to learn about china

for a start the government aboloshed most of the things you seem to believe make up communism (assigned jobs etc)... 30 years ago

Not forgetting china has the largest amount of web users in the world today... the reason you don't hear from them?... not too many speak english

What they have now is a socialist society with chinese tendancies... a free market economy (though there are areas that need more liberalising) and a governing system where they can only elect from one party (or three other close party's).

Now is this uniquely a communist trait?... no, it's just not fully democratic either.

It may not be communist but don't tell me china is democratic!!...

they are experimenting with regional elections... but until national elections are properly introduced with no political bias than yes you are right... china will not be truely democratic

^^ Your tone seems to indicate that national electoins are an inevitability...
Also by regional elections you mean like the one held in hongkong?...

villages and small towns where they can elect local officials

^^ Okay, but how do these local officials come into the scheme of thinds w.r.t. national affairs. Do they hold the same importance as MLAs etc. in a democratic system?