New world alliances, page 1
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Topic started on 6-11-2004 @ 02:07 AM by Daedalus3
Seeing the number of "can____ beat____" posts I thought I'd just summarize the current situation in strategic relations around the world:

Russia's Perspective:

recovering from theblow it suffered after the USSR broke up russia has gained economically in the last decade. It has always seen India as an ally to counter previous chances of a quasi US-China link up, esp during the cold war. Things have changed now though, Russia has made great overtures towards china in terms of friendship n the last decade, seeing their friendship as a counter to a unipolar US world. At the same time observing the the fact that the US is trying to bring India under its coalition, Russia is wary of the fact taht India might finally move towards the US in view of the russia-china alliance. Russia would not wan to lose India at the cost of gaining chinas friendship. Hence its proposal for the Russia-India-China axis to counter the west. Only splinter , China and India never did get along.

US perspective:

After "winning" the cold war the US was faced with a new threat, the Chinese. Though trade with the Chinese is plentiful, the anxietty the US exhibits over the chinese is evident from various current events. Also the joining of Russia and China as a team definitely worries the US. Hence the US is looking to India, a stable democracy in the region to balance that factor out. Only problem, post 9-11 US needs Pakistan to keep terrorists in check, a fact India isn't to happy about. Hence objective is to keep India close enough and prevent it from joining up with Russia and china.

Chinese perspective:

I REALLY DONT KNOW!! Can chicoms buddies of mine help me on this one??!
Only thing i see is that china wants to act as a buffer between russia and the US while slowly improving ties with India, (not enough to alarm pakistan). Would they be for a Russia -Inida alliance? ..I dont know..

Indian perspective:

After the breakup of the USSr relations with russia were somewhat softened. Though recent agreements on extending and building on the "friendship treaty" signed way back in 1971 seem optimistic. India is war y of the fac that Russia and China are getting to know each other and doesn't want to be left out. India is also pleasantly surprised as recent US overtures for building ties. End result India is another buffer between the russians and the americans moreso than china as china and the US don't get along as much as India and the US do esp. on military terms.

European perspective:

With the development of the european union, europe has shown that in the new world it is losing its dependance on america for assistance of fall sorts. Europe is also improving ties with Russia on her own. IMHO Europe hasn't had much to do with china since the very beginning. They imposed a ban after tianenmen and i don't know how relations have develope since then. In contrast Europe and India havve always shared a healthy relantionship, esp with the UK and France.

Hence a war in this scenario is very improbable. Lets just all be freinds!!



reply posted on 6-11-2004 @ 05:14 AM by Observer83
US is dominating energy markets and so it has control over world economy in general, many developed countrys show high interest to find more and more replacing energy forms to counter this fact. Cant say in future whos ally with US cause G.W.B havent yet shown its new cards, does war on terror continue to new country or does US just stay in iraq and start to run its oil business, so this next 4 years can dramatically change US ally situation, running absolutic politics, "your with us or against us" really drive any even a little intelligent person to fear that anyone can be seen as threat for US global politic. So US will not run out of allies, cause old ones are replaced with new ones, like Old European countrys France, Germany are less cooperative, so Poland replaces em.
Economical US has said it has mexico for cheap labor so if China start to be less cooperative with US that wouldnt cause major catastrophy, still most unlikely China does so for next 20 years. US is still one of the world countrys that can self substain itself by having large enough markets inside.

Far as i see on economic view European countrys as invidual invest a lot to China / India / S-Korea, still the truth is that there is many people that see it as threat cause basic labor work drain to Asia, so Europe future is to maintain high education and corporate HQ's in Europe. European investors still got big share holds on Asia so economical bond between China, India is very tight.
EU needs labor from africa and new european union countrys to continue rising, cause old countrys are losing people instead growing due fact seniors are major population while tax payers become minor. US isnt facing same problem bad as EU cause its in fact growing in numbers all the time, and Mexico will probably work as US labor market.

Russia doesnt need military allies currently, it always has old good trumpcard (nukes), but economical russia is allied with best buyer of its natural resources or military equipment, still doesnt mean russia come to aid those buyers. Japan and Europe seem to be Russias future allys both, for example Russia is building oil pipe for Japan, maybe in future China, but so far seems Japan is higher bidder.

Far as i read about China i believe its only interest is to maintain high economic rising and avoid all sort of conflicts, so its just big giant noding to other countrys in current situation to gain more strenght.
Also must say China has can quickly become very educated due fact 1 child policy run parents to put more and more effort to their only child. Still China is generally run by its peasants that wont for long time get to enjoy economic rising.

India interests seems to be same as China, fighting together for investments to gain more economic ground so India either will possible only to be drafted at military operations as peace keeping, but alliance as NATO not for a while so its going to stay as another sleeping giant.

For mutual protection pacts i would say EU and Russia going to agree one in near future, while US influence runs weaker.
India or China would be possible candidates for US mutual protection pact / military alliance, but cant figure which one would it be.
Japan seems to break from US shackless and start to fund its own military more and more cause of fact it loses influence in Asia all the time.
Mostly i still see other than US will not run military campaings out from their soils for long time, everyone seems to focus on their economy rather than running war, unless theres some major energy crisis that caused more countrys to join WWII.

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