The Coming Cometary Catastrophe

Sorry, Emily... but this is a hoax. You've been taken in by someone on Godlike Productions who wants to see people run around in a panic.


The hoaxer thinks you're stupid enough to think that the minute someone gets confirmation of something dreadful, that they IMMEDIATELY run off to GLP to post it (and not post it elsewhere.)

GLP does not have a high reputation anywhere because of the number of hoaxers.


At this point, a quick Googling on "Sedna" would have saved you worry and caused you to have a good laugh at the inane antics of the hoaxer. Sedna is a planet, and it's a very tiny planet (about the size of our moon.)

Two other facts that you wouldn't have known unless you read up on physics and astronomy: even white dwarf stars are larger than that. Anything as massive as a star would have a HUGE gravity (keeps the gas in a ball so that fission can occur. Fission how stars burn.)



Sedna's in a stable orbit. If this nonexistant "thing" was a "companion to it, then it and Sedna would be in orbit around each other and following Sedna's orbit around the solar system. Sedna will never, ever, ever ever get close to any of the other planets.

(another note that you wouldn't know about unless you read astronomy: the astronomers would have detected a companion when they found Sedna because of the "wobble" in Sedna's orbit that the companion caused.)



...and as a "companion" to Sedna, it would have ripped the planet apart by tidal forces.



More technical stuff, here. The hoaxer is quoting from papers on brown dwarf stars and is stupidly unaware that something that's VERY dim when it's far away might NOT be dim when it's close. I can quote the math at you (but won't); however, a brown dwarf star in the sky at the area of Sedna/Pluto would be brighter than the full moon.

I think we'd see that, don't you?



Oh yeah... signing off with "Cal Tech Scientist" just proves that they're a scientist. I think I'll sign off with "famous anonymous pop singer." That will make any messages I have about the music industry come true, right?


Then I challenge you to find the object. It's a brown dwarf star... it is glowing more brightly than the full moon and would cast more light than the full moon on the nights when the Moon isn't visible.

CdrKeenKid has some good resources, and it's helpful to at least glance at those. They will help you recognize when someone on GLP is attempting to create another hoax and instead of being a victim of StupidScience, you can hop on GLP to point out just how lame the hoaxer is.

Chakotay's got a link to the article where THAT paragraph was stolen from (several paragraphs, actually) in a quick cut-and-paste job. Here's another link:
www.crawford2000.co.uk...

Yes, it's something on a brown dwarf and it mentions all those involved in the collaborative effort. But it sure says something different than the hoaxer's "press release," doesn't it?

[edit on 15-11-2004 by Byrd]

Even if I end up looking stupid, I'd rather know what is true than be fooled by a hoaxer.

Good job, guys. I'll try not to be so credulous next time.

... just waiting for gravity to pull all that junk down on top of us.

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If you wanna see a show this afternoon, watch UCBerkeley's sunsetat

sv.berkeley.edu...

If the past is any indicator, this one will be a doosie.

I am bringing the thread back to life - I hope that the " banned member " will not post any more ridiculousness here.

I started this thread to address the possibilty of increased cometary and or asteroidal impaction risks. I want it to remain in the realms of science , and plead for you all to avoid the Planet X BS.

I will be returning in my next thread to post in greater detail my theory of the elevated risks we are facing.

There is no doubt that the statistical probability of impact with Earth fom a celestial smaller body is increasing. I intend to show you all that within the coming decade Earth is likely to be hit hard again.

As always I invite your feedback, and will be looking forward to this discussion

Alias Jones

Ok Here I go:

First here is the Torino scale , I know most of you all are ware of this , but I wanted to post it for the amateurs, and those just getting aquainted with the real threat posed the Earth





Earth's orbit brings us through several debris fields each revolution. Some we cross twice ( Taurids ) and some only once. These " showers " are caused by the debris from comets that flew by millenia ago. WIthin these remnant tails of debris there are particles that are tiny and are of no threat to us, and there are objects which are large and are quite capable of destroying all life on Earth if we where so unfortunate as to have one collide with us. There are known bodies within these streams, and there are unkowns also. It is estimated that for every 1 known body , there exsists at least 2 undiscovered. The trajectories and orbits of the debris streams are relativley understood, however it is a decided fact that although we are starting to track these potentially deadly objects , there is understood that at anytime a large killer body could be moved magnetically, gravitationally or kinetically and thuis sending it on a collision course with Earth.

THese charts represent the Appolo class threats. I will go on t disvcuss the Periodicals soon

Meteor Showers

2004
Shower Hour Date
2005
Shower Hour Date
Quadrantids 5 Jan 3
Lyrids 0 Apr 22
Eta Aquarids 19 May 4
Delta Aquarids 16 Jul 27
Perseids 2 Aug 12
Orionids 11 Oct 21
Taurids 20 Nov 2
Leonids 15 Nov 17
Geminids 13 Dec 13

Each day as many as 4 billion meteoroids, most miniscule in size, enter earth's atmosphere. Most of these meteors burn up from atmospheric friction and never reach the ground. Only a few larger and more dense meteors reach the earth's surface and make an impact.

Smaller meteorites won't have noticeable effects or cause limited damage like breaking someone's window or hitting their car. But the wide-spread effects from larger meteorites have some scientists looking toward the sky to catch a glimpse of incoming objects before they get here. These scientists monitor numbers near-Earth objects (NEO's) mostly 1 kilometer or larger to determine if and when an impact will occur.

Based on known impact craters and their age, this chart shows how often differing strength impacts have occurred in the past. Unfortunately, the past may not be a very good indicator since we really don't know when the earth may encounter new objects yet unseen

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This chart shows how frequently meteoroids of differing sizes have occurred.
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Debris trails left by comets don't have mountain sized rocks.
Those consist from stuff small dust particles, sand grains, small piece of rocks... biggest ones might be few meters/dekameters.

it is unknown what is in the debris tails. With large comets such as Encke, it is entirekly possible that there are large undiscovered bodies within these streams. You should read Napier and Clubes report on the taurid steam if you are so certain nothing is there but small particles

Excellent posts, Mr. Jones. I believe you and our colleague Cmdrkeenkid have done a good job in spelling out the very real concerns about a cometary impact in our future.

I am not an astronomer or astrophysicist, and I do not know the time frame or the increase in probablility that our pathway through different parts of the galaxy have to do with a future impact, but I'm sure they exist.

Two months ago, I was in the Yucatan and saw first-hand the shocked limestone from the Chicxulub Stike which ended the Cretaceous Era; next week I'm driving to Meteor Crater to do some photography. And, of course, I've read popular literature like Footfall and Lucifer's Hammer; I know as well as the next man what the dangers are from such a strike.

For the first time in history, we are able to spot the danger and dispose of it, but the cost would be staggering. We would need a better way than the computerized "blink comparator" used nowadays; comets are simply too small and (often) too black for us to be able to acquire them when they're out near the orbit of Neptune or Uranus.

I cannot imagine a radar shield, even a space-borne one, with enough bandwidth and power to monitor potential comets. For a start, it would probably have to be beyond the orbit os the asteroid belt; the logistics and cost of sucn an approach are beyond my comprehension.

Perhaps we have -- or could develop -- gravitometric sensors sensitive enough to see the comet as a mascon, but given the weakness of gravity and its attraction as the inverse square of the distance, I doubt if we could locate a comet by its gravitic perturbations at a distance far away enough to do something about it.

And speaking of "doing something about it" -- what can we do? Keep a fleet of unmanned ships in Jovian orbit ready to go out and H-bomb a comet enough to turn it away from its impact point? Understand if you do blow up a comet when it's near the Earth, it would be too late, we'd be struck with twenty small comets rather than one big one; the result would be catastrophe anyway.

But even if we can't save the Earth from a potential "dinosaur killer" like the Chicxulub Strike, we could still incrase the chances of racial survival by terraforming Venus and Mars and moving there; along with L-5 habitats, as soon as possible.

Starting right now.

Encke? Large?
Best joke of the day!

Diameter: 1-3 km
en.wikipedia.org...
For comparison Hale-Bob was about 50 km.

Also few probes have flown through tails of comets. (Stardust most recently)

BTW, that something didn't impact today doesn't make it anymore propable in tomorrow, just like in dice rolling... fact that you have already gotten all numbers except six doesn't make getting it any more propable.
This "continously increasing risk" is all about statistics which say that with average interval next one is coming sooner and sooner when time passes.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"


PS. Not that I wouldn't agree that mankind should be studying how to prevent impacts.

we are always seeming to butt heads E. T - I kind of like it. If Encke where to impact Earth it would cause global devastation and possibly render the human species extinct. I consider any smaller body capable of detroying life as we know it as large. Cerainly Hale Bopp is larger , but total destruction is , well, total.

Regarding statistics , impact probabilty does in fact go up as we move forward in time and remain unscathed by said debris. Each body that passes us in our orbit, and we fortuantely evade , remains a threat for future collisions in future orbits in , well, the future. In fact , the more that " miss " us now, the more that remain in space to eventually collide. Thus as we move about in our orbit, the actual statistical probabilty of impact is constantly increasing.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it

A.J.

What total?
Total means that everything inside couple thousand kilometer radius would be buried under meters of ejecta and whole atmosphere is heated enough to ignite everything combustible and vaporise meters thick layer of water from every ocean while boiling some meters more.


In this case crater size would be only 30-40 km and kinetic energy in class of few million megatons.
Neither would fireball and amount of ejecta be big.

Here's nice tool to play with.
www.lpl.arizona.edu...

It works also to other way, when comet makes more rounds in orbit Jupiter has better changes to draw it to collision course with itself or throw it out of inner solar system.
In every case we have to be glad that we have effective "thrash cleaner" in our solar system.