China may not overtake America this century after all

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posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:32 PM
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Doubts are growing about whether China can pass the US to become the world's biggest economy this century amid warnings that the country’s 30-year miracle is nearing exhaustion.

Well, this is a bit different tune than we've been hearing for the last few years. Some recent reports have suggested all is not well, but long term jeopardy? That's interesting...


Mr Li aims to cut China's economic growth to a safe speed limit of 7pc next year and rein in rampant investment – still a world record 49pc of GDP – before it traps the country in a boom-bust dynamic of frightening scale.

Indeed... I am thinking that is a good idea. The last thing we need is a population 4 times ours, in roughly the same land mass as ours, riding the roller coasters of boom and bust. I think the Chinese would come to look back on their boring, dull and green agrarian past with nostalgia and fondness after a few bust portions of that ride.


Yes, the US faces a debt hangover, but so does China after the state banks let rip with private loans keep the boom going through the downturn. Fitch Ratings has just downgraded China's debt, warning that credit has jumped from 125pc to 200pc of GDP over the last four years, with mounting reliance on shadow banking that lets banks circumvent loan-to-deposit curbs. This is why George Soros has been warning that there could be a "run" on China's state banking system akin to the Lehman bust.
Source

Now, personally? That last part is what has worried me since major stories about their own debt issues began surfacing. It's of a different nature than ours, as that indicates....but perhaps making the end result worse as well. It's hard to say. What isn't hard to say, in this bunny's opinion, is that we're not in great shape across the world when not a single major power stands without serious fiscal issues that would give a math teacher a migraine headache.

They're doing a fine job of beating the numbers and odds so far, and I hope it continues. For both our nations. The bust off this burst will be epic and something they'll likely be reading about as major historic events a century or two from now if it comes at about the same time.




posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:39 PM
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I was always a bit suspicious when people talked about China being this economic powerhouse but never mentioned any of the problems.

Always figured there had to be a darkside somewhere. Since I know nothing about economics I can't really comment further but thanks for the heads up.

Keep us informed.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:40 PM
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china may not over take but perhaps the US may fall behind

The Mathematical Reality Is We’re Losing Over 600,000 Jobs a Month That Have Been Hidden From View

investmentwatchblog.com...
edit on 8-5-2013 by Danbones because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:41 PM
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But they just borrowed from themselves, basically printing money to borrow. The USA borrowed from other countries and it's citizens. The USA also printed money but that was somehow hidden by deceit so it doesn't show up on the books.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:43 PM
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Originally posted by Danbones
china may not over take but perhaps the US may fall behind
investmentwatchblog.com...


That's some good information. I wasn't aware that hours people were working were also shrinking.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:49 PM
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China is going to run into the same problem Japan did. If your old enough you remember it was Japan is going to surpass the US, Japan is going to be a new superpower, Japan owns the US etc. The problem is China like Japan has to trasform into a modern economy and that is very hard to do.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:50 PM
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hey RM
It's really slick they way the try to slide this stuff by us like knuckleballs
like the way we don't have inflation because they took all the indicators out of the basket
or the way they fudge the unemploymenmt figures by not including the ones that have given up looking

sandf OP
if you hadn't posted I wouldn't have looked
darn conspiracy theorists



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:57 PM
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Theres no capitalists quite like the wests capitalists.
The future may look mixed for many economies out there.,the world is full of overdrawn countries......
The difference is the western monetary elite have created all the rules up till now.
The real value of the world economies will have to be refigured in a huge reset.
The elite have been draining the communal pool for decades in earnest as Bretton Woods comes to a close....
A whole lot of sacrifices will be required of the people to make the reset.
the elite will just get richer off of it.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 09:58 PM
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reply to post by Wrabbit2000
 


Hi Rascally Wrabbit!

In my view China will welcome a bust cycle. They have been allowing Western Style practices to flourish but remember that the Government still has the underlying control. For years they resisted, telling their people that the West was wrong and ultimately unstable.

But some of the people just would not listen. Well, they will now do what Parents sometimes have to do with children, teach them a lesson.

It would not surprise me if the bust is rather savage and affects primarily external investors and those internal players that have greed as their ethos.

The bust will happen, mostly the greedy will be caught with their pants down. The Government will eventually control it, lesson learnt by the multitudes and the old style control will be back in force with the blessing of the people. End of lesson!

China thinks long term, any bust will be quietly orchestrated to drive home the lesson, probably with some savagery and large chunks of non-connected greedy people will face the courts followed by the firing squads.

China will continue to be a powerhouse. The people will praise the Government.

P



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:04 PM
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Wow, how about that, capitalisms gross sores are prevailant everywhere. They simply just got ahead of themselves, saw the money an got big headed. I'm curious to see what the outcome would be in another 5 years.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:05 PM
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reply to post by Wrabbit2000
 


There was a Clancy book, Threat Vector, that was about China and was a very good read to get a feel for what is going on globally. Remember, these are the guys think tanks bring in to 'forecast' and 'theorize' what could happen in the future.

China is doing what we as a nation did in the 90's...raping their people, cooking the books and in the end will crawl away. They are the reason we entered WW2 against Japan.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:24 PM
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China doesn't need to surpass America in order to be the next big kid on the block. All they have to do is maintain. It looks like they caught themselves before they started to implode like the US. That speaks volumes as to who really is a leader in the World.

Peace



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:26 PM
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reply to post by jude11
 


Don't know about that Jude.....


There's a hidden economic war being played with oil.

Reason why China is trying to play peace maker in the Middle East.



edit on 8-5-2013 by sonnny1 because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:28 PM
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Thanks for posting; The guys I have talked to have said the good days for an expat are over in China. The cost of everything the western mind believes they need is stateside prices. Beijing apartment cost are 2 to 4 thousand dollars a month depending on where and what kinda of amenities you want. Yet we have all read about apartment buildings and in some cases entire newly constructed cities empty?....go figure.

China is now trying to upgrade and modernize their military so they will be spending more of their GDP on very little or no return on investment. With all the military personnel they have they must not pay much; I dunno. Even so, it cost to feed, cloth, and house a standing army, navy and airforce not to mention the hardware.

The U.S. dollar exchange rate in the last 3 months has lost against some of the currencies I care about but is it because of the dollar weakness or the other countries monetary strength?

The USA without the petrol dollar IMO is toast. The manufacturing jobs lost and the companies fleeing the messed up regs and taxes to me does not paint a rosy picture....... if we fold, it will not bode well for China's balance sheet either ...... again IMO.



posted on May, 8 2013 @ 10:47 PM
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reply to post by Wrabbit2000
 


Reports of China's being the next super power have been greatly exaggerated IMO.
It has alot of problems it has to deal with first before it becomes numero uno.



posted on May, 9 2013 @ 12:13 AM
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Originally posted by jude11
China doesn't need to surpass America in order to be the next big kid on the block. All they have to do is maintain. It looks like they caught themselves before they started to implode like the US. That speaks volumes as to who really is a leader in the World.

Peace


indeed, it would seem the chinese government, having the US as an example, has no intention of allowing a federal reserve, or the types of economic manipulations prevalent before it's establishment, take root. Methinks, they allowed that in order to get to this level, but will soon be purging the more greedy.

that's what I'm reading here, once the "Zomg!!!!, china's becoming a bad investment!" AgitProp others seem to falling for, is stripped away.

the roman republic was very quick to execute those more affluent members of society, who sought to be known as philanthropists, as they saw it as purchasing favor for political purposes. people like bill and melinda gates, the rockefellers, etc. would be long gone had those traditions been hewed to.
edit on 9-5-2013 by TheMagus because: added edit & comment



posted on May, 9 2013 @ 01:05 AM
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www.nytimes.com...




Levels of deadly pollutants up to 40 times the recommended exposure limit in Beijing and other cities have struck fear into parents and led them to take steps that are radically altering the nature of urban life for their children.


Parents are confining sons and daughters to their homes, even if it means keeping them away from friends. Schools are canceling outdoor activities and field trips. Parents with means are choosing schools based on air-filtration systems, and some international schools have built gigantic, futuristic-looking domes over sports fields to ensure healthy breathing.


Something else to consider?



posted on May, 9 2013 @ 01:11 AM
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Originally posted by 727Sky
www.nytimes.com...




Levels of deadly pollutants up to 40 times the recommended exposure limit in Beijing and other cities have struck fear into parents and led them to take steps that are radically altering the nature of urban life for their children.


Parents are confining sons and daughters to their homes, even if it means keeping them away from friends. Schools are canceling outdoor activities and field trips. Parents with means are choosing schools based on air-filtration systems, and some international schools have built gigantic, futuristic-looking domes over sports fields to ensure healthy breathing.


Something else to consider?

That certainly is a big issue. If economics end up in their favors, then enviromental concerns is the next biggest issue, but overall, a leader of the world? I don't think they are ready, IMO.



posted on May, 9 2013 @ 09:38 AM
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Energy - The lack of any significant oil and natural gas in China vs the fact that the US will become oil independent based on the massive shale oil and natural gas reserves, and will be an important factor in the direction of future economies of both US and China.

------- International Security Observer ------------------

"Shale Oil Revolution in America. How does it affect the world?

The World Energy Outlook’s forecast in October 2012 that the United States of America will overtake the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in oil production has initiated a new debate within the oil industry – Will this lead to a fundamental change in global oil markets? Will the importance of the Middle East decline? Will the US-Middle East relationship weaken because of this development?

The industry’s concern is not unfounded. This forecast challenges some of the basic tenets of the global oil industry. For decades, Saudi Arabia has been the largest source of oil in the world, closely followed by Russia. With one fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves[ii] and considerable power wielded within the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) the Kingdom has held and continues to hold immense sway on how oil moves around the world. The US, consuming approximately 25 per cent of the world’s oil is the largest consumer and importer of oil, despite a decline in consumption in the past year (due to low domestic demand).[iii] In recent years, China’s imports have increased making it the second largest importer of crude oil in the world but the US is still the largest consumer of energy, by a significant margin.[iv]

Nevertheless, the development and exploitation of shale oil reserves in the US seem to challenge these “traditional norms”. In 2011, the US exported more gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products than it imported – for the first time since 1949[v]. Crude oil imports reduced to their lowest since 1999 because of reduced domestic demand and growth in domestic production from shale oil reserves.

Link to article:
securityobserver.org...



posted on May, 9 2013 @ 10:17 AM
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Where have I heard this story before? Unrealistic growth? Over extended governments? Middle class on a massive rise?

Can't quite put my finger on it...was sometime in 1945-1950 range...damn...oh well, I hope that country, which ever it was, managed to find their way out of that mess.





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