Arctic Ice Melt "has the momentum of a runaway train."

reply to post by eriktheawful


Star for you, brilliant and well said. Thank you so much for the work on the graphs, it is well done.

When looking at CO2 (my original graph) we clearly see that CO2 lags the other two. That usually indicates that Temp / Methane increases cause an increase in CO2.

The chart here Wiki has a table just down from the top that shows how insignificant CO2 truly is.

The common name given to the atmospheric gases used in breathing and photosynthesis is air. Dry air contains roughly (by volume) 78.09% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.039% carbon dioxide,

Now that we have CO2 out of the way we can get back to the graph.

What we can't tell is which is causal out of Temp / Methane but we should note that the graph is not telling a part of the story. That part is that Methane makes up only 1.79 ppmv (0.000179%) of the atmosphere. 0.000179% is a really tiny part of the whole atmosphere and even a 50% increase, hell double it, would it truly make that much of a difference.

Perhaps it is purely Temp that causes the Ice ages and Methane is only a by-product of a coming ice age. I do not know the answer, but, I keep coming back to the same stance. The primary enabler for any change in climate is the Sun. That is where it all starts!

P

ETA Unless the Methane can exist as a very thin layer in the atmosphere! What we need is the atomic weights of Nitrogen, Oxygen, CO2 and Methane. It is late, I will research it tomorrow.

reply to post by eriktheawful


Again, do the math.

According to your chart, methane levels should be dropping not Increasing to levels never seen before.

Try reading the links in the Op and make a comment on the information presented.

reply to post by poet1b

Again, do the math. According to your chart, methane levels should be dropping not Increasing to levels never seen before. Try reading the links in the Op and make a comment on the information presented.

You are reading the chart Backwards! Look at the X axis, read the chart from right to left.

Please stop telling people to do the math, look at the graphs properly.

P

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by eriktheawful

 

Again, do the math.

According to your chart, methane levels should be dropping not Increasing to levels never seen before.

Try reading the links in the Op and make a comment on the information presented.

I have: read your links in the Op, and I have made comments.

People asked for information about the "Methane Bomb" in the past, and I provided links to that information and also links that show how methane levels rise and fall, rise and fall and again, rise and fall over the last 420,000 years.

The chart is a visual representation of data. It looks a lot like any Saw Tooth wave form generated by a signal generator. With peaks that happen on what looks like a regular bases.

You do realize that you're suppose to read the chart from Right to Left yes? The left part of the chart is present day, the right part of the chart is where the ice core data begins. The chart also shows that methane levels seem to rise rapidly around every 110,000 years ( with variance of +/- 20,000 years).

It's not perfect and I would be very suspicious of any chart showing a perfectly smooth wave of any kind since that is not how nature works.

Not everything in nature is going to be "exact" when it comes to numbers. Every bit of data will have variance in it and a margin for error.

Just take a look at the sun. There are variances in it's solar minimum and maximum. The sun's magnetic poles flip in a cycle, but that cycle is never exact. It's suppose to be a 11 year cycle, but it's been as short as 8 years, and as long at 15 years (we're on 13 years right now and still waiting for it to do it again).

The other thing to take a look at is the time scale of that chart. It's based on tens of thousands of years over a 450,000 year period.

If you google, you can find many other charts that show a shorter time scale that is closer to present day. However that data is only reflecting a short amount of time, and does not reflect data that was clearly recorded in the ice prior to it, so yes, a chart showing only a shorter amount of time will reflect a different view.

The other thing I pointed out when I first posted the chart, was that it is from a link that is old: 2004. So no, it would not show anything for the last 9 years.

Given that the chart I posted has a variance that is measured in thousands of years, you can't really say that it's not reflecting a cycle because of data from just over the last 100 years.

You all didn't get the memo?

Where the generations that have to suffer and problem solve our fore father's Fubars!

But here's a hint, we either need to work with the planet, or die being worked into the planet.

I absolutely believe the climate is changing.

I 100% disagree that man has had anything to do with it. Every living human on Earth will fit in a sphere 800 meters in diameter. We represent such a small percentage of the volume of the atmosphere to 5 miles out that it is totally insignificant.

What frightens me more than anything is we have people in power who are taking measures to attempt to influence the climate. Spraying chemicals in the atmosphere to block the Sun. Average temperatures are decreasing, NASA just released a study showing that CO2 actually is a cooling influence on global temperatures and not warming, reflecting a huge percentage of the Sun's energy back into space. Maybe someone wants to freeze billions of people to death? That is where we are headed.. ICE AGE, not a greenhouse.

Originally posted by SubSea
Spraying chemicals in the atmosphere to block the Sun. Average temperatures are decreasing, NASA just released a study showing that CO2 actually is a cooling influence on global temperatures and not warming, reflecting a huge percentage of the Sun's energy back into space. Maybe someone wants to freeze billions of people to death? That is where we are headed.. ICE AGE, not a greenhouse.

Exactly! And that's proven by the most recent curve in global temperature, antarctic ice sheet growth, and our last winter's cold records.

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by VoidHawk

 

Um, the flooding isn't supposed to happen until the Antarctic glaciers melt, on the other side of the planet from the Arctic Ocean.

Ocean rises where expected in a hundred years, but we could start seeing a serious rise in sea levels within a decade.

edit on 5-5-2013 by poet1b because: Auto correct hassles

*************************

"Sea Rise" it's a safe bet there will be sea rise, thats a given. What impact that will play on tectonic plates? Earthquakes, land mass subsiding, lifting? A curious thing comes to mind, there are a lot of offshore sites of ancient habitations swallowed up by current sea levels. Bangladesh, New York city, Venice, New Orleans, Holland, the Eastern Coastal US, the Caribbean, Indonesia, India, a lot of low lying ground could be reclaimed by the sea. You can well imagine the shrinking coastlines with 1-2 or 3 hundred foot rises in sea level. Ocean currents changing, ocean temperatures changing thus affecting currents. Affecting precipitation and agriculture and affecting mans ability to feed itself. Time to find another planet to plunder......... or die here. We have had a good run at it though, in nine-ish thousand years, we have come from caves and darkness to high rises and impending darkness.... guess we just didn't have the genetic traits needed to live harmoniously.

And think about it, it only took about two hundred years to affect it in earnest.

Glaciers growing.

www.foxnews.com...

There is no "man-made" global warming. Settled fact.

Great thread OP!

We are in a Mini Ice Age as far as my view can see. We are highly dependent on the Sun and where it is traveling and how it is effected is what we are reliant upon. It no doubt effects the planets, including the Earth!!

As we experience more changes, we will definitely see more changes effect humanity. Hopefully it will not be an extinction type of events but we are no doubt in a cycle that will be bumpy.

I think for anyone who does not believe the above to be true has not done their due diligence in researching the topic at hand.

reply to post by poet1b

Now is the time to start preparing.

Might even be too late for that, some 65 years too late.

The Arctic is melting says scientist

A mysterious warming of the Arctic climate is slowly manifesting itself, said Dr Haas Ahlmann,
Swedish geophysicist at the University of California yesterday. If the Antarctic ice regions and the major Greenland icecap should reduce at the rate of the present melting, he said, the oceanic surfaces would rise to catastrophic proportions.
People living in the lowlands along the shores would be inundated. Temperatures in the Arctic had increased 10deg fahrenheit...

source

This could also help to put things in perspective.

The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 608–908N amounted to some 1.78C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming.

The Early Twentieth Century Warming in the Artic

Historic Variations

Well, I'm afraid we may have hit, or even surpassed, the tipping point. Even if we tried to do something about it in this country, the industrialization of China proceeds apace in a major way, with heavy smog developing in major cities. The same is happening in India, which also has a cheap, reliable car in the Nano which is taking the country by storm. Can we ask them to cut it out? Can we tell the people of India not to drive? Not hardly.

I'd also like to know how this became a political issue rather than a scientific one. The hard science has established the reality of climate change beyond a doubt, except for the right. I've heard it's not happening, it's because some measuring instruments are on tarpaper roofs in cities, Al Gore made it up, it's the sun, it's volcanoes, it's a natural cycle, it's not happening(again). Hey, guys-

Q: How many global warming deniers does it take to change a light bulb?
A: "There's nothing wrong with that light bulb!"

reply to post by WanderingThe3rd


One problem...there was a time with no ice at the poles...I think that was about at the time of dinosaurs.

So, man did not do this? Man will survive because the lizards adapted from the Dinosaurs? Let's look at the latter first...man won't adapt, why? Lizards, reptiles, etc., unlike Man, does not destroy and rape their own female species to death...nor do they form kingdoms and wars and wipe each other out. Nor do they devour every single element, plant, animal, mineral, Jewel from the planet...Man however does all these things and more. So, will man adapt like the dinosaurs? No Way, the Earth will eject humanity because humanity did not listen...or obey what was clearly there from the beginning. In mans arrogance to be GOD he has destroyed Mother Earth.

HUman, made of water...yet he polluted it for his gold. HUman, made of minerals...yet he Raped her for his weapons, buildings and temples and crowns. HUman, made of elements...yet he Raped her again for mass weapons of destruction, wars, power. HUman, made of gases...yet he Raped her again using gases to get at more Jewels and destroying Forests, Streams, Ponds, thereby destroying homes of species that gave LIFE to HUman. HUman, made of blood, glucose, plasma...cut down the Trees to make idols with graven images of man gods, goddesses of erotica for mans sexual pleasure, to entice the slaves with for more Warriors to carry his Swords of steel. HUman, with no wing, not content to stay and give life, no, he had to invade more and more and even Rape more and more making steel wings and rockets to POLLUTE Space and begin MINING/Rapong the Moon and even Mars. HUman, as GOD, laughed at the simpletons, Slaughtered by mass genocide the people's who the gods called Savages, because they had no need of Ax, Sword or Gun because they lived in PEACE, as ONE, many Nations, only taking from MOTHER Earth, what they needed and HUMBLY learning from their Spirit guides, the Animals before them...but did HUman listen? NO, HUman laughed, scoffed, in his royal god like robes and crowns. WILL HUman survive the Final Judgement? Not at this rate, because HUman still, will not humble, and see...what Mother Earth has been screaming at him for centuries. Even the Animal guides, are leaving us, they've given up...HUman

Just refuses to listen. So LET him be GOD, and what he as GOD will have to rule over?

NOTHING. It will be Void, and Dark, with only his Signature...of HUman POWER and his lust for...

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by pheonix358

 

Change at this rate has only happened once, and that is when there was a massive impact of a comet or something that large.

This gave me a chuckle, the preposterous notion that climate scientists (and people who believe them) somehow "know" that "change at this rate has only happened once." There is entirely insufficient evidence for anyone to determine that, yet you say it with such ease and misguided confidence.

True scientists without an agenda will admit that they have absolutely no idea if global climate change is simply a natural cycle of the earth or is caused by mankind. Consider the age of the earth, then consider how long we have been collecting climate data, then consider the methods used to "guess" what the climate was like millions of years ago, then consider that none of the theories regarding anthropogenic climate change have enough data to generate any reasonable hypothesis.

Here is a direct equivalent of their "science": It is sunny today. I have been collecting data that it has been sunny from 11:30 AM until 11:32 AM. I see evidence that it might have been sunny yesterday (the grass is green). Conclusion: It has been sunny for at least a thousand years, and it has never been quite this sunny before. Now let me sell you some sunscreen. That's how absurd it is.

The earth has gone through many changes over unfathomable years, long before there were bad scientists getting paid to spout predetermined conclusions in favor of political and economic agendas.

reply to post by rickymouse


Yes thats what I think. A great culling of the useless eaters. They have not been building DUMBs and seed banks for nothing. Georgia guide stones comes to mind. The methane gas thing is scary but it is going to happen and theres nothing we can do about it. Next 25 yrs? I dont think it will be that long before the chit hits the fan.

"the sky is falling the sky is falling". no im joking.


you know when i was about 7, im 27 right now, i remember being in a friends garage and his parents just changed there oil in there car. i seen that and said, "save mother nature". i know thats a long time ago to remember but its true. every time i see a thread about climate change i think of that time way back then.

as for the na sayers that always try to say its normal for the earth to heat up or what ever. do you really think that with over 1 billion cars on the road to day that the emissions from them vehicles are not doing something to the earth? along with that what about other things we do on an every day basis that add up over time.

just some of my thoughts

reply to post by CirqueDeTruth

Thank-you Cirque, I look forward to being here.
The weather is getting increasingly erratic all over the world. I live in the SF Bay Area and just within the last 3 days we had 90 degree weather turn into high winds then rain and overcast.


And I think it's important for everyone here to remember the topic of the thread - a runaway train. I so often see these threads turn into arguments about who caused climate change. We are past the point of no return and although important to assess what's caused this to happen so fast, the more important thing to do is to talk about what to do about it. Do we tamper with the Arctic using geo-engineering? And if we don't, do we face possible extinction? How do we deal with the fact that it's about adaptation now? So many many questions....

Originally posted by pheonix358
reply to post by swan001

 

Swan, perhaps then you can explain why the polar ice is melting. If the earth has not increased in temperature why is the ice melting?

P

look, it's not as if you couldn't measure the temperature directly, both by sensors on the ground and by satellite IR spectrometry... the same applies to proxy data (hide the decline...) - only if the trend is 'right' which we know means 'up'. even errors only seem to go 'up'. You know, the original data sets have all been 'discarded' by CRU, UK leaving only one 'compiled' set for publication and making it extremely difficult to determine the real temperature curves for even only select locations. I can only encourage everyone to please, remember predictions long enough to spot these lies.

______beforeitsnews/climategate/2010/08/official-satellite-failure-means-decade-of-global-warming-data-doubtful-135889.html

[link removed]

if the warming isn't global, maybe look underwater:

www.canada.com...

anyways, the whole thing is the same every spring, the corals die, the world comes to an end and the cycle repeats, i'm only grateful people had the presence of mind to avert the switch to 'climate change' as the main buzzword, since nothing could be disproven anymore, hot, cold, wet, dry it's all your fault, so pay up already.

Unfortunately, even with small inroads into demolishing the thermophobe hegemony, we're going deeper into the woods every day, huge sums are paid for gaming the system entire economies are debased and German household electricity prices are now around ~40c/kWh.. trillions of wealth transferred to predatory entities under political umbrella. Of course they seek to expand that system of tribute it attracts certain types of individuals like locusts and if one victim falters, there are a few others left to fleece.

take a quick look at the number of stations vs. land temperature on p1

icecap.us...

all of this has been discussed to death, several times in fact and none of these issues remain addressed for long, every season brings yet another rehash, that's groundhog day for you isn't it?