It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

An Independent Examination of National Exit Polls

page: 1
0

log in

join
share:

posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 04:56 PM
link   
I have completed a review of the National Exit Polls. They can be googled, and are on several news websites, but I used the data provided on CNN's site which can found at the following address:

www.cnn.com...

I will begin with the outlining of some interesting points I found, and will offer commentary, but mainly I would like you to offer your own commentaries on the info presented. I have put two small stars like this one "*" beside the beginning of each section. This should help for those of you who want to scroll down briefly and get a general idea of numbers without missing any.

I know that lots of bad things have been said about the exit polls this year, but I still believe they show a mostly general picture of voters, and can help to create interesting sociological pictures.

Not all catagories have been listed. Please visit CNN.com or use google.com to find the complete results. If a candidate got less than 1% of the vote, their name is not listed.

13,660 Total Respondents.

**1. Gender.

46% Interviewed were Male

55% of Males voted for Bush
44% of Males voted for Kerry

54% Interviewed were Female

48% of Females voted for Bush
51% of Females voted for Kerry

**2. Race and Gender

36% Interviewed were White Males

62% of White Males voted for Bush
37% of White Males voted for Kerry

41% Interviewed were White Females

55% of White Females voted for Bush
44% of White Females voted for Kerry

10% Interviewed where Non-White Males

30% of Non-White Males voted for Bush
67% of Non-White Males voted for Kerry
1% of Non-White Males voted for Nader

12% Interviewed were Non-White Females

24% of Non-White Females voted for Bush
75% of Non-White Females voted for Kerry
1% of Non-White Females voted for Nader

**3. Race

77% Interviewed were White

58% of Whites voted for Bush
41% of Whites voted for Kerry

11% Interviewed were Black

11% of Blacks voted for Bush
88% of Blacks voted for Kerry

8% Interviewed were Latinos

44% of Latinos voted for Bush
53% of Latinos voted for Kerry
2% of Latinos vted for Nader

2% Interviewed were Asian

44% of Asians voted for Bush
56% of Asians voted for Kerry

2% Interviewed were Others

40% of Others voted for Bush
54% of Others voted for Kerry
2% of Others voted for Nader

These race numbers are very interesting. Minorities are, apparently, much more willing to support third-party candidates than Whites are. I think this shows a deep-rooted mistrust in the established American Politics by minority groups, and is definitely a side of America that Libertarians, Greens, Reforms and other third-parties should go after to help create a base for themselves.

**4. Income

8% Interviewed made less than $15,000 a year

36% voted for Bush
63% voted for Kerry

15% Interviewed made between $15,000 and $30,000 a year

42% voted for Bush
57% votes for Kerry

22% Interviewed made between $30,000 and $50,000 a year

49% voted for Bush
50% voted for Kerry

23% Interviewed made between $50,000 and $75,000 a year

56% voted for Bush
43% voted for Kerry

14% Interviewed made between $75,000 and $100,000 a year

55% voted for Bush
45% voted for Kerry

11% made between $100,000 and $150,000 a year

57% voted for Bush
42% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

4% Interviewed made between $150,000 and $200,000 a year

58% voted for Bush
42% voted for Kerry

3% Interviewed made over $200,000 a year

63% voted for Bush
35% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

The more money a voter makes the more likely they are to vote for Bush or Nader. I found this highly interesting. Again, this is something third-party supporters should be aware of.

**5. Education

4% Interviewed did not graduate High School

49% of non-Graduates voted for Bush
50% of non-Graduates voted for Kerry

22% Interviewed had a High School education

52% voted for Bush
47% voted for Kerry

32% Interviewed had attended some college

54% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry

26% Interviewed Graduated College

52% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

16% Interviewed had Postgraduate Study (graduates and non-graduates)

44% voted for Bush
55% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

Again, I find this very interesting. The G.O.P. has claimed that it is the party of Education, yet the more Education a voter has, the more likely they are to vote for Kerry of Nader. This is more information for third-party supporters to use.


**6. First-time Voters

11% Interviewed had never voted before

46% voted for Bush
53% voted for Kerry

89% Interviewed had voted before

51% voted for Bush
48% voted for Kerry


**Religion

54% Interviewed were Protestant

59% of Protestants voted for Bush
40% of Protestants voted for Kerry

27% Interviewed were Catholic

52% of Catholics voted for Bush
47% of Catholics voted for Kerry

3% Interviewed were Jewish

25% of Jews voted for Bush
74% of Jews voted for Kerry

7% Interviewed were Others

23% of Others voted for Bush
74% of Others voted for Kerry
1% of Others voted for Nader

10% Interviewed had no Religion

31% voted for Bush
67% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

Atheists, Wiccans, Anglicans, Muslims, Hindus and other non-traditional worshippers were much more likely to support either Kerry or Nader. Not a big surprise, but still nice to know.


**7. Military Service

18% Interviewed had Prior Service

57% voted for Bush
41% voted for Kerry


82% Interviewed had no Prior Service

49% voted for Bush
50% voted for Kerry

This is only interesting because the numbers are a lot closer than most people predicted. It was forseen that it would be much more lopsided than this, with Prior Service people much more likely to vote for Bush than was recorded.


**8. Gun Owners

41% Interviewed were Gun Owners

63% of Gun Owners voted for Bush
36% of Gun Owners voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

59% Interviewed did not own a gun

43% voted for Bush
57% voted for Kerry

Gun Owners are more likely to vote Republican or third-party. Once again, not surprising, but still interesting.


**9. When Voting Choice Was Made

5% Interviewed decided on Novemeber 2nd

45% voted for Bush
52% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

4% Interviewed decided in the last three days (before November 2nd)

42% voted for Bush
55% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

2% Interviewed decided in the last week (before November 2nd)

51% voted for Bush
48% voted for Kerry

10% Interviewed decided in the last month (before November 2nd)

44% voted for Bush
54% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

78% Interviewed decided before that

53% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry

Kerry decidedly won the recent voters. However, most Nader supporters also decided in the weeks before the election. Reviewing late campaign strategies may help in deciding for future races.


**10. Most Important Issue

5% Interviewed said Taxes were most important

57% voted for Bush
43% voted for Kerry

4% said Education was most important

26% voted for Bush
73% voted for Kerry

15% Interviewed said Iraq was most important

26% voted for Bush
73% voted for Kerry

19% Interviewed said Terrorism was most important

86% voted for Bush
14% voted for Kerry

20% said Economy/Jobs was most important

18% voted for Bush
80% voted for Kerry

22% said Moral Values were most important

80% voted for Bush
18% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

8% said Health Care was most important

23% voted for Bush
77% voted for Kerry

I think this part of the Exit Polls are the most indicative. Education, Jobs, Iraq, and Health Care (and presumably the problems with each) drove voters to the Democrats. Taxes, Terrorism, and Moral Values drove voters to Nader and Bush.


**11. Most Important Quality (in a candidate)

9% Interviewed said (a candidate who) Cares About People

24% voted for Bush
75% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

8% Interviewed said Religious Faith

91% voted for Bush
8% voted for Kerry

11% Interviewed said Honest/Trustworthy

70% voted for Bush
29% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

17% Interviewed said Strong Leader

87% voted for Bush
12% voted for KErry

7% Interviewed said Intelligent

9% voted for Bush
91% voted for Kerry

24% said Will Bring Change

5% voted for Bush
95% voted for Kerry

17% said Clear Stand on Issue

79% voted for Bush
20% voted for Kerry

This is my favorite part of the poll. This is why you chose the cadidate you voted for. I think that these answers gives us very deep insight into how each candidate is viewed by the people.


**12. Compared to four years ago, the U.S. is...

54% said the U.S. was safer from terrorism

79% voted for Bush
20% voted for Kerry

41% said the U.S. is less safe

14% voted for Bush
85% voted for Kerry


**13. Your vote for President was mostly...

69% Interviewed said their vote was mostly for their candidate

59% voted for Bush
40% voted for Kerry

25% said their vote was against his opponent

30% voted for Bush
70% voted for Kerry


**14. 2000 Presidential vote

17% Interviewed did not vote in 2000

45% voted for Bush
54% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

37% Interviewed voted for Gore

10% voted for Bush
90% voted for Kerry

43% Interviewed voted for Bush

91% voted for Bush
9% voted for Kerry

3% Interviewed voted for Other in 2000

21% voted for Bush
71% voted for Kerry
3% voted for Nader


**15. Osama's Recent Video

32% Interviewed said the tape was Very Important

47% voted for Bush
53% voted for Kerry

24% Interviewed said the tape was Somewhat Important

54% voted for Bush
45% voted for Kerry

20% said the tape was Not Too Important

57% voted for Bush
41% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

24% said the tape was Not At All Important

55% voted for Bush
44% voted for Kerry

Apparently the tape had a much different effect than what I thought it would do: energize people to vote for Bush in much larger numbers than indicated. I really did not think it would help Kerry as much as it did.


**16. Worried About Terrorism?

71% Interviewed said they were worried about terrorism

53% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry

23% Interviewed said they were not worried about terrorism

50% voted for Bush
48% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

Terrorism turned out to be much more of a non-issue than I thought it would be. This was one of the more surprising numbers.


*******

I only picked out 16 of the categories, and there are many more on the actual form. I really suggest you visit the page yourself, and read them all over. If the only thing you have to comment about is the inaccuracies of Exit Polls, please don't bother. I am not claiming these numbers are perfect, but they are they only model we have to go by.

Now that I have put all of this up there, what are your comments? Anything surprise you, or shock you?

- Dom




posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 05:12 PM
link   
There is useful supplementary data on some sites about how the various media reported on and changed the exit polls too.

The classic case going under the microscope will be Ohio, where numbers reported at 1.05am changed radically by 6.00am... showing a total 6% swing away from Kerry compared with the earlier poll reported. That was total effect was predominantly explained in the female pie chart, go figure.

Some are asking questions not so much about the validity of the polls in toto, but about whether there was any influence in what was being manipulated/reported to reflect a bigger picture. Perhaps the polls didn't get it wrong, but the machine counts did.

But we are living in this parallel universe, so the purpose needs to be more than academic. I think the platform of counting every vote and making every vote count was reasonable, and it is yet to be achieved. May the counting and Bev Harris's FOI requests and audits continue.




posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 05:25 PM
link   
thanks for this, Neil Rogers was quoting this study today. Just proves people didn't use their brains and logic to vote, they used their emotions, fear and heart to vote instead.


dh

posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 05:42 PM
link   
Much evidence that the election was again fixed via evoting
www.rense.com...

www.rense.com...

www.iht.com...



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 05:52 PM
link   
Did you really expect a fair election when an executive from Diebold promised to deliver Ohio for Bush? For those of you that don't know already Diebold is the company that makes the computerized voting systems. When there is such a massive conflict of interest you can't expect a clean election. Remember when Jeb promised to deliver Florida in 2000? Democracy is dead in the US.



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 09:05 PM
link   
Well, the purpose of this thread wasn't to prove or disprove anything about voting fraud, it was simply a look at what the news organizations were using as their information heading into election night. I guess the question I pose is, do you think that these results are truly the way Americans feel, or do you think the Exit Polls are really as far off as everyone seems to be claiming?

- Dom



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 09:28 PM
link   

Originally posted by RockerDom
do you think the Exit Polls are really as far off as everyone seems to be claiming?

- Dom



Statistically, the gap between exit poll results and vote count could only be explained by overly high margin for error due to some aberration in the sampling such as major characteristic differences between what made up early voters and late voters (how likely if that has never happened before?) or mendacity about recent voting behavior (also unlikely) or e-voting fraud (an unfortunate possibility).

What can't be audited can't be proven, case closed. Or so some might think.



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 09:31 PM
link   

**5. Education

4% Interviewed did not graduate High School

49% of non-Graduates voted for Bush
50% of non-Graduates voted for Kerry

22% Interviewed had a High School education

52% voted for Bush
47% voted for Kerry

32% Interviewed had attended some college

54% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry

26% Interviewed Graduated College

52% voted for Bush
46% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

16% Interviewed had Postgraduate Study (graduates and non-graduates)

44% voted for Bush
55% voted for Kerry
1% voted for Nader

Again, I find this very interesting. The G.O.P. has claimed that it is the party of Education, yet the more Education a voter has, the more likely they are to vote for Kerry of Nader. This is more information for third-party supporters to use.

Forgive me if I somehow misread the numbers, but that seems to me those with MORE education voted for Bush, postgraduates excluded.



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 09:35 PM
link   

Originally posted by worldwatcher
thanks for this, Neil Rogers was quoting this study today. Just proves people didn't use their brains and logic to vote, they used their emotions, fear and heart to vote instead.


Am I the only that believes that 13,000+ people do not make the US?

These polls don't mean much even thou it shows that the majority of these people voted for Bush. It could go either way for the 59+ Million that voted for Bush.
They could have voted for a whole set of different issues that these 13k did not even consider...


[edit on 4-11-2004 by Muaddib]



posted on Nov, 4 2004 @ 09:41 PM
link   

Originally posted by Muaddib

Am I the only that believes that 13,000+ people do not make the US?



Assuming they got the demographics right and the questioning doesn't have any terrible flaws in it, 13,000 is statistically sufficient to gauge the nation. In fact, this is the same number the Nielsen Rating system uses. And there's millions, if nto billions, invested in television. You know they ain't screwing around.



posted on Nov, 5 2004 @ 12:20 AM
link   
Aren't statistics just educated "guesses" and nothing more?.....

If we are to believe statistics, then Democrats/Liberals are the most violent people in America.



posted on Nov, 5 2004 @ 12:01 PM
link   

Originally posted by Muaddib
Aren't statistics just educated "guesses" and nothing more?.....


No. Statistics themselves are pretty accurate as long as you read them as measuring what they actually do, not what you want them to. Problems occur when the statistic-taking process is flawed. Statistics based on people's opinions are inherently flawed because you can't force anyone to answer truthfully, or answer at all. Statistics about, say, weather can be accurate because storm clouds can't say "Nope, not gonna tell you my density"



posted on Nov, 5 2004 @ 12:14 PM
link   
Ok, one last time. Euro-trash - shut up, Bush won, haha. Libs, move out, go away, move to France. You are all just upset that your "war-hero" couldn't steal the election, so you point fingers at W. The exit polls were FAKED by moveon.org. There is nothing indepented here in this "data". Kerry had some 10,000 lawyers on stand-by. If anything was fraudulent he would have jumped on it. So GET OVER IT!



new topics

top topics



 
0

log in

join