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www.cdc.gov... are the implications of avian influenza to human health? Two main risks for human health from avian influenza are 1) the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from the infected bird to humans, sometimes resulting in severe disease; and 2) the risk that the virus – if given enough opportunities – will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person.
www.cdc.gov... global influenza pandemic (worldwide spread) may occur if three conditions are met:
A new subtype of influenza A virus is introduced into the human population.
The virus causes serious illness in humans.
The virus can spread easily from person to person in a sustained manner.
Ian M. Mackay, PhD., Virology Down Under
Total confirmed human cases of influenza A virus H7N9: 110
Total deaths attributed to infection with influenza A virus H7N9: 23**
Number of cases discharge from hospital: 12
Time between illness onset and discharge (days): 16
Current Case Fatality Rate (CFR*): 19%
Average time from illness onset to first confirmation of H7N9 (days): 9
Average age of the H7N9-confirmed cases (including deaths; years): 58
Median age of the H7N9-confirmed cases (including deaths; years): 62
The mode of the ages among confirmed cases (including deaths; years): 54, 56 and 74
Average age of the deceased (years): 61
The mode of the ages among the deceased (years): 64, 74, 77
Males: 67% of cases, 71% of deaths
…..Some things we don't know…
[With thanks to Dr. Katherine Arden for contributing to the questions and thoughts below]
The source of the human infection
The incubation period in humans
The seroprevalence of H7N9 in humans and animals
Whether human-to-human transmission is occurring
The scope of H7N9 genetic change in real-time
The nature, specificity, use and effectiveness of H7N9 assays
The range of signs and symptoms attributable to H7N9
How many are infected without obvious signs of infection
Originally posted by soficrow
reply to post by jude11
Thanks. ...Do you really think this is the pandemic strain? It's targeting men over 60 (74% or so maybe) - would certainly wipe out a HUGE portion of the retired/dependent population.
Three hospital personnel have developed respiratory symptoms after coming into contact with Taiwan's first confirmed case of H7N9 avian flu, the Central Epidemic Command Center said Wednesday.
A survey of the epidemic situation showed that 139 local people had come into contact with the man, a Taiwanese businessman based in Jiangsu's Suzhou area, the center said.
China is the worse place for something like this to start as well as being the most obvious.
Now this is very disturbing, this new bird flu just became air born.
THE EMERGENCE OF AIDS, Ebola, and any number of other rainforest agents appears to be a natural consequence of the ruin of tropical biosphere.
The emerging viruses are surfacing from ecologically damaged parts of the earth. Many of them come from tatered edges of tropical rain forest, or they come from tropical savanna that is being settled rapidly by people.
The tropical rain forests are the deep reservoirs of life on the planet, containing most of the world's plant and animal species. The rain forests are also its largest reservoirs of viruses, since all living things carry viruses. When viruses come out of an ecosystem, they tend to spread in wave through the human population, like echoes from the dying biosphere.
In a sense, the earth is mounting an immune response against the human species. It is beginning to react to the human parasite, the flooding infection of people, the dead spots of concrete all over the planet, the cancerous rot-outs in Europe, Japan and the United States, thick with replicating primates, the colonies enlarging and spreading and threatening to shock the biosphere with mass extinctions. Perhaps the biosphere does not 'like' the idea of five billion humans. Or it could also be said that the extreme amplification of human race, which has occurred only in the past hundred years or so, has suddenly produced a very large quantity of meat, which is sitting everywhere in the biosphere and may not be able to defend itself against a life form that might want to consume it. Nature has interesting ways of balance itself. The rain forest has its own defenses. The earth's immune system, so to speak, has recognized the presence of the human species and is starting to kick in.
The earth is attempting to rid itself of an infection by human parasite.
The Hot Zone… on line