Korea : First Strike Capability with Conventional Weapons

Our esteemed member Wrabbit2000 has completed three informative and well received threads providing background information on North Korea. They are:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

For the past four days the Rascally Wrabbit and I have been swapping U2Us and meeting in chat to decide if the fourth should be done and what it would contain. Wrabbit did not have the time and had some reservations. We agreed I would do the fourth part.

Don't get too excited, it proved an impossible task even with the wealth of links Wrabbit supplied on the subjects. When added to my own links I thought this would be a lot of work but was not so difficult.

How wrong I was!

What I was determined to do was to provide facts only and let the reader draw their own conclusions. I also intended to limit the thread simply to the first 120 minutes of combat. I was also going to restrict the range of combat to known verified weapons out to and including Japan. Japan would be the US major staging area as it was in the first Korean War

Let us have a look at the problems with an example! The No-Dong missile. This is the missile that can hit Japan, well, maybe.

From Wiki

The precise capabilities and specifications of the missile are unknown; even the fact of its production and deployment are controversial.

No Dong 2

The No Dong 2 is a medium-range, road-mobile, liquid propellant, single warhead, ballistic missile. It is believed to be an improved version of the No Dong 1 missile which traces its lineage to the ‘Scud C’ missile. The No dong 2 is believed to have a smaller warhead, a longer range, and better accuracy, although precise differences are speculative. It is likely that Chinese scientists worked directly with North Korea to build the No dong 2, though it is possible that it was designed domestically using PRC assistance and technology provided on earlier missile projects.

I will not quote all the sources, why do it, they are full of crap! In the year 2000 the Pentagon estimated a production capacity of 10 to 12 missiles per week or per month, different sources, different answers! They started production in 1993 or 1996 or 1997. Most sources give them a current inventory of anywhere from 50 to >200 to 800 or more. "Many" were sold to other countries (Iran, Pakistan). Combining 10 missiles per week with a 16 year production, they could in fact have 6,500 of these things.

The production facility is 'believed to be underground' Well, If you can't find it on Google maps then it must be underground, deep underground somewhere in North Korea. Posters claim that the new US Deep Penetraters will 'take out' all these underground factories / bases / tunnels. The B2 pilot asks, "Where do I drop them," The Commander says "North Korea, your guess is as good as mine!"

For Air Defense North Korea has over 11,000 anti air guns. 'Most are Cold War vintage.' Well, if they are then I would not send in the vintage B52s unless you want them shot down. Do they have the deadly Russian s-300 air defense missile system. China has them and redeveloped them. Well, no one knows but most pundits say either, yes they do, or no they don't!

North Korea – On a 10 October 2010 military parade a new SAM system, complete with Flap Lid radars, was displayed. North Korea announced it to be "an anti-ballistic defense system", capable of shooting down aircraft at distances of 90 kilometers and at altitudes of up to 30 kilometers. Japanese media reported the system to be a locally designed S-300 derivative, a fact that is corroborated by the presence of Flap Lid radars. However, this and the origin of the missiles have yet to be confirmed

So it goes on, hours of research and no real information.

What I can tell you is this.

In an opening Artillery and Missile barrage North Korea can and would devastate South Korea and Japan. There are whole inventories of missiles that are only suited to strike at Japan with the sole aim of denying it to the US as a staging area. South Korea would be toast. With just one type of Artillery piece, they can drop more than 16,000 rounds on top of Seoul / hour. That is just Artillery, in a single volley they can drop 4,000 short range missiles on to Seoul as well. They can do 4 volleys per hour.

Would they hit Seoul in the opening barrage, I wouldn't. At similar ranges you have a few US / ROK bases that would make much better targets.

To put this bluntly, no one except North Korea knows what they have or where it is. We do know that much of what you can see is likely to be dummy installations so that the US can waste their ammo, bombs and missiles on.

As for the monster minefield, North Korea can remove sections of it, at will, in just a few minutes with artillery.

Would they then move their 1.7M man army through, I wouldn't, I would send in my reserve forces first and they number anywhere between 3.5M and 8.5M soldiers, that is a huge variation and reinforces the fact that we really have no clue.

I pray for peace! The first tenant of Warfare is "KNOW YOUR ENEMY." The West does not have a clue!

To all those posters who say "Just go in and wipe them all out" I would reply, "Yea mate, you lead the charge."

P

reply to post by pheonix358


NK GDP.......... 40 billion.

US defense budget...........680 billion.



You do the math.

Thank you, and thanks to Wrabbit as well

Im a firm believer there's more to this than what's presented.. one of the reasons i think so is none of the above has been presented in the MSM. From an observers viewpoint, The current "script" is purely to condition folks for another war, against evil folks.. in a far away land.

Much easier to get behind a war, if your told you'll be safe in your armchair the whole time. and if the real game players are hidden behind a strawman.. but that's another topic, with little info.

I do wonder though.. how deep it's gotten into folks heads, Im watching countless messages about how folks are "sick of the NK rhetoric" when... honestly.. 80% of it has come out from SK or USA, or UN.. NK hasn't said alot lately.. but folks are homing in on the target of hate already.. and fueled by western propaganda and doublespeak.

This above OP.. is one of the small glimmers of truth in all this.

Greetings,

I'm afraid your information may be inaccurate as to numbers of troops and how fast they could move. Anyone with a real interest may wish to check out the International Institute of Strategic Studies. They have some of the best unclassified information around.

A DPRK attack while very damaging and with causalities perhaps reaching into the millions on both sides would not likely escalate to a theater nuclear war or WW III. However, the DPRK would very soon run out of ammo and reserve troops. Support from the PRC would most likely be limited to resupply subject to air attack over the DPRK. The PRC simply cannot under any circumstances risk another war with the USA at this time.

I would estimate that DPRK forces would not extend beyond 50 miles of the DMZ before being thrown back and defeated. With almost 60% of their total armed forces in a 100 kilometer zone just to the north of the DMZ they are prone to massive air strikes with bunker busting weapons and MOAB. The US could if they wished declare war and carry out a tactical nuclear strike with fusion neutron weapons. Such a strike would be totally devastating to the DPRK and render their military forces useless and ineffective.

When military and civilian leaders state that any actual armed attack by the DPRK would be suicide they know what they're talking about. My best,

To put this bluntly, no one except North Korea knows what they have or where it is.
We do know that much of what you can see is likely to be dummy installations so that the US can waste their ammo, bombs and missiles on.

I feel sorry for the North Koreans tasked with understanding the American systems in comparison with their own.
They've got to feel the pressure, probably why they aren't doing anything. They have no hand to deal.
Just keep checking.

The first tenant of Warfare is "KNOW YOUR ENEMY." The West does not have a clue!

Conducting an inventory on the United States, you're only going to find what's on google.
The West has secret weapons that we barely have a clue about.
Say hello to our newly declassified Infrared laser ray Persian Gulf region.
Black budget projects in experimentation phases and completed projects that probably haven't been operational since they were prototypes litter the American underground.

But all that could be a lie too. House of cards.

At this point, it feels like our move is containment. Business as usual.

reply to post by pheonix358


Hey there Pheonix358, ATS Readers, Writers,

WELL DONE.. to you and the waskily wabbit..lol

Gonna give a S&F when I get this posted.

So it goes on, hours of research and no real information.

Your words quoted above, are basically the same I been running into as well.

WHO DO YOU BELIEVE?

This whole topic of Korea has had a boatload of disinformation spewed out there on the net from ALL sources.

Pretty darn frustrating isn't it?

I wish I was better at posting maps and pics etc like Wrabbit is! I am just an old fart trying to get the information out there to ATS readers, and hoping they can sort it out better.

I just posted something by another website..on ATS

ATS POST

One of these days I will have enough posts to join you folks in the ATS chatroom.. I look forward to that day, because there are some great folks here that I'd LOVE to visit with, and pick each others brain.

You make a good point that Seoul most likely would not be the first artillery targets.. but I think Seoul would SOON be the recipient, because how many times can you put craters on top of craters, before you are just using shells as an expensive roto tiller eh??

How soon that would be, would up to the boatload of spies that N Korea most likely has in S Korea. Once secret agent "x" reports in that the military base is wiped out, and in flames...which wouldn't be long I think, then they turn the guns on the peasants. A gut feeling or guess here is all on my part.

I pray for peace! The first tenant of Warfare is "KNOW YOUR ENEMY." The West does not have a clue!

To all those posters who say "Just go in and wipe them all out" I would reply, "Yea mate, you lead the charge."

SO TRUE THERE!!! VERY WELL SAID!!!

Pravdaseeker

The only thing you've done is assume whats against SK. I mean they are just going to sit there and take it all like good little puppies aren't they?

Probably the only reasonably realistic post on NK's ability to cause damage but not thought through very well as to why you'd do it to be completely destroyed yourself.

Would you attack me knowing if you did you would die as a result? Unless you had a death wish !

Have a long careful and reflective think about that one. Not even Kim is that stupid although I can't say the same for some on ATS.

reply to post by pheonix358


Matey, I understand where you are coming from. Enjoying the reads. I ask - What outcome/timeline from say a first salvo before it is detected and subsequently defended and the targetted protagonists are wiped out?

I am suggesting here that any launches would be detetected and defended. Sure there will be an amount that would break through. Artillery, okay, very little defence initially but perhaps after that first 'targetted' salvo would be selected and wiped out.

I reckon mate that any act will incur an immediate reaction. Inclusive of deleting any artillery barrage.

I have no proof but I would be assured that there are those untargetted options (by NK) that SK and allies could utilise.

Sure, hit the SK capital. But, NK will only get one bite at the cherry.

Bally

Originally posted by SubTruth
reply to post by pheonix358

 

NK GDP.......... 40 billion.

US defense budget...........680 billion.



You do the math.

I suggest you may wish to consider the following.

NK Salaries paid to defense workers. Few bowls of rice / day.
US Normal US salary range
NK Required profit margins Nil
US Military Industrial complex - Billions
NK R&D Base materials + more bowls of rice + freebies from China
US R&D Budget - Billions per project.

You do the Math. US warfare is designed to make money. It succeeds incredibly well!

P

And in the mean time DPRK dances with joy, knowing we in the west have been fooled in to thinking they have nukes. english.yonhapnews.co.kr... form the link

2013/04/13 09:20 KST
text size plustext size minusprintsend twittersend facebooksend msn
(EDITORIAL from Korea Times on April 13)
Kim Jong-un's 1st year
Only way to survive is dropping missiles, atomic bombs

A year after Kim Jong-un became North Korea’s leader, the reclusive state remains as unknowable as ever. While the daily war threats issued from the North have pushed regional tension to its highest level in decades, people are dancing in the streets of Pyongyang.

One foreign magazine, quoting some citizens, ascribed it to North Koreans’ confidence in victory based on their near-completed nuclear arsenal.

here are some interesting links

KN-08:The semi-mobile Limited Range ICBM
No-dong-C

www.globalsecurity.org...
unha 3

North Korea’s Unha-3 long-range rocket:

news.nationalpost.com...
and lastly range of and types of missiles DPRK has

Published : 2013-04-11 20:37
Updated : 2013-04-11 20:37
North Korea has completed preparations for launching multiple missiles with various ranges that can put South Korea, Japan and U.S. bases in Guam within striking range, Seoul officials said.

www.koreaherald.com...

reply to post by airforce47


So International Institute of Strategic Studies is your preferred source. Well, they don't agree with any other figures so who do you believe.

I fail to see how NK would run out of reserve troops. 3.5m to 8.5M is a lot to 'run out of' As for ammo, they have been making it for 60 years!

I understand your convictions but I respectfully disagree with them.

P

reply to post by pheonix358
well put and good opening,S&F to you for it, i will try to find some thought proving info on the DPRK, for there is not much to find, but if you only know where , some of it is off the cuff, info or Intel , old out dated white papers. but still worth the read.

In this era the following will be true:

Iraq = NK

= China

= Russia


We have developed and aquired so much tech and allies that any one nation would loose to us no matter what.

reply to post by hoochymama


This is one of the problems we have.

Any high tech nation will win on the plains. This tenant of warfare goes all the way back to the Roman Empire.

Look at the countries that were easily defeated and then look at Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Once you get into mountainous terrain or Jungle Terrain, the US tech has less impact.

For all of history it has been about terrain. Russia could not subdue Afghanistan and neither has the US. It is the terrain!

P

here is one showing the updated SAM sites geimint.blogspot.com... B2 and F22 would not have a problem but B52 would be sitting ducks, thus would be a F22 and F117 and B2 B1 in the first round then the old er B52 f111 f15 f18 and the rest of the up dated, ones including the "Intruders" F35? to make up the second round

reply to post by pheonix358


You have posted some really good information. It does confirm what our government has said over the past couple of days. They Don't Know Jack. And I mean SQUAT. When they just announced yesterday that N.K. "Might" have nuclear capability my confidence in U.S. Intelligence went to hell in a hand basket. That is when I realized that our government really knows NOTHING.

As far as the stuff being underground. Um, well, We do have satellites that can see through the ground. I am not sure of distance or range, But, I am sure the N. Koreans know. I will bet a dollar to a doughnut that their facilities are just far enough outside that range.

Maybe their arsenal might not seem like much, But, maybe we have no clue what they have. Maybe all of that stuff has been manufactured and maintained underground. Of what we do know, they have enough firepower to cause some serious damage. Everything else they have is the "Bonus" round.

Why do you think we did Not win the Korean "Conflict"?

Because they are a Serious Piece of Work. A true Adversary. It is Not the Boy making the decisions. He is just the mouth. It is his advisers playing him like a flute. If you were to research any of them you would find that their credentials are pretty damn decent. I believe that if it came to blows we would Not have our a$$es handed to us. However, I think we are going to be pretty damn surprised at what we are dealing with.

Have you ever seen a picture or video of the Boy?

He is VERY confident. But, it is a certain type of confidence. I have seen that type of confidence before. .. When I was in my youth. In grade school there was this kid who got beat up all of the time. And then one day a new kid moves to town. Interestingly enough the new kid is big and a Fighter. Soon the victim and the new kid become friends. From then on, anytime anyone would cause the victim any problems, the new kid would beat 'em up. This in turn caused the victim to have a great deal of confidence. The next thing you know he was thumbing his nose and making comments trying to provoke people. Because he Knew that someone one else was there to do his dirty work. I think we are seeing the same thing here. Though I do wonder who a.k.a. what country is actually going to back him up.

On a lighter note, . . . Anyone who says we should go Blow 'em All up and let God sort 'em out is a damn idiot.
It is Not going to be an easy task. We are not dealing with Iraq or Afghanistan here. It is going to be a 'little' more complicated than that.

Originally posted by bekod
here is one showing the updated SAM sites geimint.blogspot.com... B2 and F22 would not have a problem but B52 would be sitting ducks, thus would be a F22 and F117 and B2 B1 in the first round then the old er B52 f111 f15 f18 and the rest of the up dated, ones including the "Intruders" F35? to make up the second round

I am not going to spend hours defending my position on things like this.

Have you considered or done the research that many of these type of sites are dummies or expendable. The Pentagon has had major problems determining which of these sites are real and which ones are not. While your B2 is bombing the expendable S100 site the mobile S300 points in the general direction, flicks on its flap radar, fires, blows you out of the sky, shuts down and moves again to another hidden tunnel or camouflaged position.

Most of those 'known' anti air sites are there for a reason and its not the reason you think they are there. If you know roughly where the B2, F117 or F22 then they are very vulnerable.

P



ETA Sorry Bekod, that came out more forceful than it should have, I am frustrated at spending so much time on an important thread and coming up near empty, my apologies. Still, your stealth aircraft are still dead, or at least you will have losses.

Were a little different now than the USSR in the late 70's and early 80's. I dont think it matters much.

We choose to leave the Nations we destroy now considering we leave our Corporations in the wake.

I applaud the OP's enthusiasm and effort but NOT his critical thinking using facts and logic for his presentation. Only fools will believe a low tech ancient military force such as NK is will win in this current modern age of conventional warfare, when even hi-tech nations are very very cautious to even think of using one.

But then, some are fearful and let their fears get the worse of them, clouding their judgement, or stupidities clouding theirs such as the senile old military farts whom are in power , still trapped in the 50s tech era, and advising young fatboy kim to think he can fool others. He may be able to fool OP, but not many others well informed.


1. NK may have hidden their assets, but so too SK. The minute the real missiles and arti fires start, within 30 seconds, their heat signatures will be picked up by satellites mounted with infra red sensors and have those co-ordinates relayed back to SK arti and missle batteries, under 15 seconds.

In Defcon 1, with all SK batteries on the ready, it will take another few seconds to wipe out those NK batteries.

Each time NK batteries fire, they will last only 1 minute. Within an hour, those bateries comprising of thousands of guns and launchers, will be wiped out.

AND NK is satellite blind, which means it cannot track and fire back at SK batteries.


2. NK does not seek to destroy SK, even Seoul, as it needs its resources. The initial attack will be upon vital mititary, command and supply targets - such as the Blue House, Parliament, Defense dept, military bases, power stations, ammo dumps, oil depots, bridges and critical roads, naval ports, etc.

Unfortunately, NK will fail. Govt buildings are only facades, meetings and coordinations can still be planned in open air or underground. Sk Defcon1 will ensure troops and equipment will not be sleeping in barracks without any quick response to evacuate. Supply depots are well hidden which satellite blind NK will never be able to figure out.

And most of all, as (1) had shown, the NK batteries will be wiped out long before it can do any serious damage.

However, SK and USA Air intelligence units had LONG spent decades using camera and infra red -ground searching satellites to discover where SAM sites and NK supply depots are - military, oil, electricity and other vital infrastructure. The KNOW where they are, and will be the 2nd range of targets to be destroyed after the batteries are wiped out.


3. Once (2) is done, fighter jets will move in to destroy what's left of military targets in NK, including its grounded air force.

Including in this air armada will be the B52s, as NK radar and SAM sites would have been knocked out. Those aircrafts will carry bunker bursting bombs. Just 2 bomb sorties over the satellite discovered same bunkers will ensure that no matter how deep the NK bunkers are, it will be destroyed.

It will then be bye bye Kim, the end of the war, and start of the freedom phase of the NK People.

Techincally, all these are meant to be secret as they are war plans, but if an insignificant nobody like can figure it out, I am sure many more will be able to do so. I only write this, so as to assure those whom are fearful of NK, and also to warn NK who thinks this is a game, NOT to be stupid seek war when the rhetorics fail, as it will lose terribly, and within a short period of time.

They are toast without the backing from China,untill then all of this is fiction.
In fact i believe Nk has already lost..without a single shot being fired.