Effects of an EMP on our Infrastructure...

Found this great paper while looking this up (no doubt many have been over the past few days).
The paper is long, and a large file, but if you are really into it, you should find it full of information.

www.empcommission.org...

Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack

It's from 2008, so about as recent as you can hope for on a report of this scale.

Here's a pertinent excerpt from the preface:

The electromagnetic pulse generated by a high altitude nuclear explosion is one of a
small number of threats that can hold our
society at risk of catastrophic consequences.
The increasingly pervasive use of electronics of
all forms represents the greatest source
of vulnerability to attack by EMP. Electroni
cs are used to control, communicate, com-
pute, store, manage, and implement nearly ever
y aspect of United States (U.S.) civilian
systems. When a nuclear explosion occurs at
high altitude, the EMP signal it produces
will cover the wide geographic region within the line of sight of the detonation.
1
This
broad band, high amplitude EMP, when coupled
into sensitive electronics, has the capa-
bility to produce widespread
and long lasting disruption a
nd damage to the critical
infrastructures that underpin
the fabric of U.S. society

Thanks for the link. I've been worried about this ever since I heard that North Korea launched a satellite with an "unknown payload" back on 12-12-12.

If you think about it, that means they only have to launch one nuke.....high over the United States, and send us all back to the 1800s.

That's a very frightening thought.

The unprepared people, scare me the most, but I would really fear for all of those who are medically dependent on electricity. The NICU babies, heart patients, those dependent on medications to live, those who rely on oxygen, etc.

S&F

It's a bit trickier than it seems. One thing I found out from researching this, is there's a "sweet spot" altitude. Any higher, and the effects are lessened. Any lower, and they are lessened as well. So, this makes optimizing the weapon a bit beyond the tech NK has so far demonstrated.

Still, it could damage a locale, if such a weapon were detonated.

However, I was relieved a lot more than I was terrified, as I read the report. For example, check the section on cars and trucks. This isn't near as bad as I was expecting.

but I would really fear for all of those who are medically dependent on electricity. The NICU babies, heart patients, those dependent on medications to live, those who rely on oxygen, etc.

Simply put, a lot of those in an affected area would be doomed, sadly.

That's just silly...the EMP affect would only last about 60 seconds tops...unless they do back to back which it would then reach about 120 seconds. Haven't you ever played MW3 or BO2?

[/end of sarcasm}

I can find no credible evidence that NK is capable of miniaturizing a nuclear device sized sufficiently to cause a wide EMP effect that could be placed on a rocket.

Does anyone have a link to in intel that suggests that they can?

reply to post by Gazrok


I have a friend who brought this threat to my attention a while ago. Members of this site assured me that we have nothing to fear from an EMP...and my thought on the matter is: if we're so easily incapacitated, why the hell are we funneling trillions of dollars we don't have into a military that doesn't work?

Originally posted by whywhynot
I can find no credible evidence that NK is capable of miniaturizing a nuclear device sized sufficiently to cause a wide EMP effect that could be placed on a rocket.

Does anyone have a link to in intel that suggests that they can?

You'll be searching for a while because it believe they do not have the capability. But of course all the theorists on here brought up the fact that one of NK's satellites was positioned above the NE part of the US this week and that is when the speculation started.

reply to post by AfterInfinity


If you read the report you will see that EMP is a serious issue. The issue is for someone to get a sufficiently sized device into the correct position over the USA. There are several countries that have that capability but I suspect that they are restrained from launching such an attack by economic reason plus a MAD senierio similar to the nuclear MAD restraint. I just hope that countries like NK never obtain the capability to launch a device over the US. Many people have speculated the such a device could be brought close to the US in a commercial ship and then launched to altitude. Hmmmm, maybe but not that easy.

reply to post by HawkeyeNation

I agree Hawkeye but also we all know that military secrets can be a surprise to the other side. The general public didn't know about the SR71 until it was practically decommissioned. Rods from God? What other little goodies are out there. You have to admit that NK has made pretty good progress considering. Something to watch.

Originally posted by Gazrok
Found this great paper while looking this up (no doubt many have been over the past few days).
The paper is long, and a large file, but if you are really into it, you should find it full of information.

www.empcommission.org...

Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack

It's from 2008, so about as recent as you can hope for on a report of this scale.

I would like to point out one part of the paper that is disingenuous to the point that it is flat out wrong.

The transformers that handle electrical power within the transmission system and its
interfaces with the generation and distribution systems are large, expensive, and to a considerable
extent, custom built. The transmission system is far less standardized than the
power plants are, which themselves are somewhat unique from one to another. All production
for these large transformers used in the United States is currently offshore.
Delivery time for these items under benign circumstances is typically one to two years.
There are about 2,000 such transformers rated at or above 345 kV in the United States
with about 1 percent per year being replaced due to failure or by the addition of new
ones. Worldwide production capacity is less than 100 units per year and serves a world
market, one that is growing at a rapid rate in such countries as China and India. Delivery
of a new large transformer ordered today is nearly 3 years, including both manufacturing
and transportation. An event damaging several of these transformers at once means it
may extend the delivery times to well beyond current time frames as production is taxed.
The resulting impact on timing for restoration can be devastating. Lack of high voltage
equipment manufacturing capacity represents a glaring weakness in our survival and
recovery to the extent these transformers are vulnerable. Distribution capability is
roughly in the same condition although current delivery times are much less (i.e., limited
manufacturing capability, although there is domestic production).

There is large transformer manufacturing in the US. And that is beside the point. The reason delivery times on new units is so long and inflexible is because… When a large transformer is damaged, you don’t buy a new one. Most damaged large transformers are rebuilt.

total rebuild turn around times can be quite short depending on the urgency. We are talking weeks or months even for the largest ones.

I posted a rant about it a long while ago on ATS.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Mr Tranny


Do you think that the rebuild time for large transformers would be increased if suddenly the facility had 50 times the usual number to rebuild and they had no electricity to operate? Hmmmm

reply to post by whywhynot


A good friend of mine actually has a family company doing either this, or something very similar. They do a lot of repair work on transformers and equipment when storms roll through, and they always have power at their plant, even when it is out, so I'm assuming they fall back on some backup generators, etc. As to whether they have EMP type shielding, I don't know, but I do know they do the rebuilds right here on American soil with American parts and people.

reply to post by Gazrok


According to this, a detonation at 400KM to 600KM would be effective:
images.military.com...

The NK satellite has been crossing the US at approx 500KM.

That link also says this:

A survey of worldwide military and scientif ic literature sponsored by the Commission found widespread knowledge about EMP a nd its potential military utility, including in Taiwan, Israel, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea.

The Commission met with Russian Generals Vladimir Beolus
And Viktor Slipchenko, who stated:
•
Russia designed an “enhanced EMP” nuclear weapon
•
Russian, Chinese, and Pakistani scientists are working in North
Korea, and could enable that country to develop an EMP weapon
in the near future
•
North Korea, armed with an EMP weapon, would constitute a
grave threat to the world.

reply to post by whywhynot


If an attack like that did happen, then priorities would change. Shops that did not have backup generation, WOULD GET BACKUP GENERATION!!!!!!!!!!! They would send in portable generation equipment to get them up and running.

And in a true emergency they would gather the extra help needed from other industries. A large part of the work can be delegated to unskilled individuals. While the existing employs would manage the critical processes, and keep watch over the temporary help.

reply to post by Gazrok

Not talking thunder storms here, talking EMP event. If it takes out the grid no power. Backup power generators (even if they are shielded) only have typically 2-3 days of fuel available. Remember EMP no power for pumps to transfer fuel to trucks to deliver to the emergency generator.

PS We are talking the really large transformers big transformers. And, historically they are produced outside of the US: Here

Originally posted by Mr Tranny
reply to post by whywhynot

 

If an attack like that did happen, then priorities would change. Shops that did not have backup generation, WOULD GET BACKUP GENERATION!!!!!!!!!!! They would send in portable generation equipment to get them up and running.

And in a true emergency they would gather the extra help needed from other industries. A large part of the work can be delegated to unskilled individuals. While the existing employs would manage the critical processes, and keep watch over the temporary help.

Another thought for you, no power means no grocery stores, no gas stations, no transportation. Are you going to leave your family to go to work with no power, no groceries, and gangs roaming around looking for groceries? Hmm, not saying that it is the end, just saying if the grid goes down from EMP it is a major event and will not be overcome easily and it will take awhile to bring it back particularly if a lot of damage occurs to the HV Transformers, PCB's and conductor. Just my opinion. BTW, I worked as a power dispatcher, control room operator, shift supervisor and plant manager at power plants for 25 years and know a little about what happens and why.

Originally posted by whywhynot
reply to post by Gazrok

 

PS We are talking the really large transformers big transformers. And, historically they are produced outside of the US: Here

You are not getting the key distinction here.

That paper is not even relevant to the discussion in the first place.

Yes, it will take a long time to build a large transformer “from scratch”. And that is the key word. “from scratch” As in, a new one from totally new raw materials.

The reason new domestic large transformer production has dropped down to what it is, is because we have not been upgrading or expanding the grid to any real degree for a long time. That means there is very few situations where a company is going to be buying one for a totally new application where no old transformer existed before hand. That is why most domestic transformer producers don’t mess with them, because there is almost no demand.

In existing applications where an existing transformer dies, they don’t order a new one that is built from scratch. They have a company come out and get the old one, and rebuild it. The parts of the old transformer are reused. It is fully rewound and tested.

There is a limited number of companies in the US that build large transformers from scratch, but there is a countless number of companies that rebuild them. Those companies that rebuild them can not design a new one from scratch, but they can take a blown up one, and rebuild it to original specifications.

In an EMP strike, we won’t be setting up new applications where there is no existing transformer. We are just repairing an existing transformer for an existing application.

So the lead time, backlog, and delivery schedule of a new transformer manufacturer is not even part of the equation here.

reply to post by Mr Tranny


I understand what you are saying Mr Tranny, I just disagree. I understand that there are a large number of transformer repair facilities but I also know that a much smaller number can handle the really large ones. The crane sizes are not sufficient, the rewind equipment is too small. But again, how do you repair transformers when there is no power for pumping fuel for trucks or emergency generators and who is going to go get those blown transformers and how and where are you getting the replacement windings and insulation for this huge influx of repair? Too many problems to mention.

You go on believing that it will be no problem and I will go on believing that an EMP event is a significant problem.

Peace

Originally posted by whywhynot
I can find no credible evidence that NK is capable of miniaturizing a nuclear device sized sufficiently to cause a wide EMP effect that could be placed on a rocket.

Does anyone have a link to in intel that suggests that they can?

I do. Actually I don't know if it constitutes "credible evidence" but I think it's interesting. Check out BlueAjah's post posted on 11-4-2013 @ 03:44 PM at the link below.

N. Korean satellite orbits over U.S.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

After thought: I saw the post from BlueAjah about 10 minutes before I saw yours. Hmm.