Chinese Political Scientist Predicts War on Korean Peninsula 70-80% Chance

I am not posting this as Doom Porn, but I do think that the Chinese perspective on North Korea is not discussed as much as it should be. In the following article a Chinese Professor at the Central Party School argues that war on the Korean peninsula stands at 80% chance of taking place. The Chinese Profesosrs perspective is fairly interesting since he and other Chinese officials have met a number of Korean officials and generals in person. The article argues that war is likely because a number of NK generals actually believe they can win a war within a few days and that the US stands no chance. Pretty much this guy has been to dinner with a number of players in NK and can confirm they are indeed crazy and are not rational actors. Google Translator stinks but you can get the gist of the article even though the translation isn't the best.

Chinese Professor Argues War Likely

Also for people interested in following the developments in Korea I suggest checking out Steve Herman's tweets. He is a pretty reliable reporter and is tweeting in on developments like every half hour. He has some interesting stuff that I can not find from other sources. Steve Herman

well thats pretty acurate
except that the koreas have been at war, and are still, for the last 30 years

eta

Officially, the war as we know it today has been going on since June 25th, 1950 when the north attcked the south in a bid to reunite the country by force. You see, although it officially began in 1950, it technically began in 1945 at the end of WW2 when the US and Russia divided the country along the 38th parallel. This was after liberating Korea from Japanese occupation. The south developed under democratic rule, while the north developed under communist rule, led by Kim Il Song, the father of the north's current leader.

On June 25th, 1950, with the permission and blessing of Joseph Stalin (Russia), the north attacked the south. The north would have sicceeded in it's quest if it were not for Douglas MacArthur and the Incheon landing which attacked the north's forces in the rear and cut of their supply lines. His forces then pushed as far as China, at which time the Chinese jumped into the war and there was much back and forth until things were pretty much the way they were at the start of the war...divided roughly along the 38th parallel in July of 1953.

No peace treaty was signed...only a ceasefire. Therefore the war continues today

uk.answers.yahoo.com...


just checking with my fingers
make that 60+ years

I just want it to happen sooner rather than later.

Soooo many threads... Sooo many...

70-80%? What does that even mean? The cards are in favor of war? Anybody could have told you this, especially with the increase of nonsense coming from N.Korea, more than usual. But I suppose...

Last twitter update by steve

Steve Herman ‏@W7VOA 23m

KCNA statement broadcast at 0328 UTC: "Unpardonable treacherous crime to turn Kaesong Industrial Zone" into "hotbed of confrontation."

Is N.Korea being serious? They're going to complain about this when they're threatening war? What in the world did they expect?!

btw,

China Choosing Sides: North Korea or United States
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by magma
I just want it to happen sooner rather than later.

Soooo many threads... Sooo many...

I'm sorry but I just don't understand the mentality behind complaining about excessive threads on a subject as critical as a massive war that will have untold consequences and potentially pull us into a broader conflict at a point where our financial situation is already strained past the point of sanity.

Frankly I'm sick of hearing that excuse constantly on this board in general, but on this subject it's a little shallow and naive. I know allot of them are fear mongering and attention whoring, but I think it's important to get as many sides of the story as possible and am grateful to the OP for bringing good information to my attention.

It's pretty sad that we're so jaded to desire conflict just to get it out of the way.

Wah, now we both cried!

It's just odd seeing a Chinese academic come out and say that war is likely. Most western academics are arguing NK is just posturing and war is not likely. I'd love to see a debate between the top western policy egg heads and their Chinese counterparts. Our media will obviously cover the western academic perspective so checking out the Chinese one I think has merit, even if the conclusion seems "obvious".

reply to post by IndianaJoe


It has been drummed up to a matter of extremes.
On one hand, The International Community and the Media.

On the other hand, South Koreans going about there business as usual.

Difficult to figure. For it must be considered that those who are potentially in
direct fire are so casual about the situation that they must know something
"WE" don't, or they are in complete denial.

Complete Denial would be the calloused result of decades of the "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".
This in itself could be a Tactic for a Suprise Attack.

Institutionally, this could also just be a young arrogant "BOY" being foolish.
Either Way it is a dangerous "Game".
S&F

Being discussed already days ago

Start using search you guys, your mucking up the boards.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Mods pls close this

Originally posted by Infernalis

Originally posted by magma
I just want it to happen sooner rather than later.

Soooo many threads... Sooo many...

I'm sorry but I just don't understand the mentality behind complaining about excessive threads on a subject as critical as a massive war that will have untold consequences and potentially pull us into a broader conflict at a point where our financial situation is already strained past the point of sanity.

Frankly I'm sick of hearing that excuse constantly on this board in general, but on this subject it's a little shallow and naive. I know allot of them are fear mongering and attention whoring, but I think it's important to get as many sides of the story as possible and am grateful to the OP for bringing good information to my attention.

It's pretty sad that we're so jaded to desire conflict just to get it out of the way.

Wah, now we both cried!

edit on 4/11/13 by Infernalis because: Wah

If only people had the courage to use the aspect of a massive war to start a revolution on the inside. Destabilise the government, and round up every single money scheming person and deal with them.
Don't tell me that those 90 million people outside the work force don't have a lot of capable hands amongst them....

Revolution is necessity and a world war would basically hand you the opportunity on a silver platter.

reply to post by IndianaJoe

Chinese Political Scientist Predicts War on Korean Peninsula 70-80% Chance

I predict 0% chance.

Let´s see who is right, and who is wrong, he, or me.

Time will be our judge.

reply to post by flice


I just worry that's what they want and are prodding for.

I don't see any easy answers, but advocating violence still isn't one I perceive as being an option just yet.

Especially at the moment with the way they are twisting any and all acts of violence in favor of their agenda.

The more they push, the more I can see some hopeless people acting out.

They will just use it to further demonize and label people negatively in the blind eyes of the general people.

Stay calm and do what you can to open others eyes to whats going on!