Warning: The coming washout in Gold and Silver is likely imminent.

reply to post by ErtaiNaGia

There has to be a buyer for every seller....BUT in a panic selling mode the sellers are more aggressive and mark the prices down fast and hard in search of buyers/bids.

Its the early 1900's all over again. Flood the market with it, then buy it all up dirt cheap, then watch the bottom fall out from underneath as those who hold none are left with nothing.

On March the 6th, trader Jim Sinclair predicted the paper markets would disappear as the gold war intensifies. Sinclair also spoke with King World News about the “end game,” how various countries are positioning themselves, and how this will impact the gold market. Sinclair, who has been actively trading the markets for over half a century and whose father was business partners withtrader Jesse Livermore, had to say about what is now taking place as the gold war continues to rage.

Jim Sinclair: “The market character has now changed for gold and very few recognize that. Gold is a trading market which involves sovereign entities, very serious sovereign entities such as China and Russia. Recently you can even see the minor central banks such as South Korea purchasing gold.

Sinclair makes some interesting remarks about the Russians being pissed off about losing their money in the Cyprus banks.

If the US got Putin angry you would see something happen in the gold market. Russia, China, and other central banks know what the end game is. They know that gold is going to balance the balance sheets of the major deficit spending nations.

Now those deficit spending nations like the US, which would like to protect the dollar, see gold as competitive. They may well be dragged to this conclusion yelling and screaming and causing volatility all of the time (in the gold market).

kingworldnews.com...

Remember, Sinclair said this on the 6th of March.

Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by ErtaiNaGia

 

There has to be a buyer for every seller....BUT in a panic selling mode the sellers are more aggressive and mark the prices down fast and hard in search of buyers/bids.

Oh... there are buyers at the present distressed prices....
bu the sellers are claming rhey have No Physical gold but mostly silver supplies are claimed to be non-existent--- irrespective of the $7.00 Premium above spot !

even the remaining silver producers are refusing to release their mined silver to the public &/or private mints... as the COMEX spot & future price is less than the cost of extracting the silver out of the earth... why do they want to supply the mints with product that worth less than the cost of production...


next there are many (est. 90%) of major miners/metals suppliers who will be bankrupt in 3 months if the gold & silver prices remain under $1400 gold $23 silver that is the paper rate for those metals....((also there are deliberate measures by governmant to restrict mining output with really weird and unusual safety measures... it is said that Barrick Gold is being hamstrung with a production allowence of a mere 55oz per day from a previously good producing mine [500,000 ox yr]) but that is another issue
while the Shanghai gold merchants... and Indian gold traders are buy-selling physical gold at $2000 OZ...

there's a real disconnect here with PMs selling at bargain basement prices on the fraudulent COMEX with manipulated futures (on paper only) whilst the real world, unfraudulent, gold vaults in the East
are trading gold bullion at the real-world price.... some $600+ per Oz higher than the USA or London markets



check the latest steve Quayle links on his daily hot-list updated 3X a day for those two financial links about gold/silver


i have to sweat till Friday 19th to see if my silver coins, already paid for...will ship as usual
i believe i will get my last batch sent on 15 April by the 19th because they physicall shipped before the great 'squeeze' on Monday the 15th

This minor report (Daniels Trading) shows major redemptions of the GLD Gold ETF starting about 2 months ago as a precursor to the washout.

Were Record-High ETF Redemptions an Early Warning of the Gold Meltdown?

Global markets are still recovering from the washout in energy and metals on April 12th and 15th. The most dramatic move was a $230 plus selloff in the gold market, which came close to matching in two sessions the losses generated during the previous six months of trading. While there doesn’t appear to be any single catalyst for this market-shaking event, some traders have noted what may have been an early warning signal during the early part of this year in the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market.

Since the start of 2013, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) have seen net outflows of $5.4 billion, with the largest monthly outflow on record occurring in February. The actual bullion holdings for GLD have fallen more than 6.9 million ounces since the start of the year and have reached their lowest holdings level in three years. While the April 15th $140 downdraft saw record daily volume for GLD of over 93 million shares, that day’s net outflow was only $188 million – indicating that some ETF traders were starting to step back into the gold market. Given the increasing role that physical commodity Exchange Traded Funds gave been playing in global markets, the recent events in GLD may end up repeating themselves in other commodities

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings
www.danielstrading.com...

reply to post by deessell

Re the "paper markets" for precious metals....they wont disappear as they are more liquid than the physical. What will happen is that eventually there will be a delivery default on futures (whose markets in all commodities are a proxy for the physical and delivery only takes place for approx 1-2% of all contracts in all markets) which will be settled by a cash "premium" well above spot and then the Comex (CME) and LME will change the contracts to be "Cash Settlement" with "Delivery Optional" if agreed to by both parties then eventually "Cash Settlement" only. Of course, premiums of physical will widen further. But there should already be a premium (see WSJ for actual in the cash price section) for "fabricated" gold and silver (vis a vis the deliverable bars).

...In the last update we opined that Big Money, aware of the mass of stops beneath the key support, was conspiring to trip them in order to trigger a collapse which would enable them to replenish their run down gold inventories at a relatively low price, but there is a darker explanation for their earlier big inventory rundown, which is that they had seen "the writing on the wall" and were offloading their inventory at top dollar in the large top area as fast as they possibly could ahead of a collapse. Many are now protesting "How could gold collapse when its fundamentals are so strong?, www.marketoracle.co.uk...

..

here again the thinking goes, that the Fed backed banks like JPMorgan & Goldman sachs are the only ones orchestrating the slam-down of gold & silver and the resulting raising of margins by 18% and the resulting raising of 'Premiums' for physical will make gold & silver unreliable as wealth storage vehicles...

That's where i differ from the herd.... i suggest that China mostly along with Russia are using their accumulated Paper (USTreasuries/bonds) which are depreciating in value by the week... as selling the Treasuries to attack the price of gold

manipulations by the Fed (TBTF banks) is designed to undermine the confidence of gold/silver/PM and in turn cause gold/silver/PM to trade in a new, lower trading range which would make the USD appear to be a better store of wealth than the group of commodities like PM...

the Eastern world is gaming the paper metals markets with the intention of getting gold & silver to near panic lows so that they may demand delivery of the same gold they have 'lost money' on by forcing the price lower... in a strategy to debase the gold price

the market analysts are not about to tell the public thaat the regular ETF gold market manipulators are being gamed and blindsided with massive short positions coming from China, Hong Kong, Singapore bullion banks etc as the stealth bidders squashing the price of gold & silver.... for that would quickly open the authencity of actual bullion reserves stated in the gold ETFs and the vaults of NY & London...


the Eastern headquartered central bank for BRICS which will soon replace the World bank/IMF/ BIS & the London-NY paper & bullion Gold system of trade-Pricing.... & that BRICS bank will soon announce the gold-standard trading units that are to replace USD & the fraudulent PM markets of the soon defunct Western World financial system

--------------

...Coordinated Action Against The Gold Price

Not to say that there weren't more deliberate forces at work. My good friend and near-neighbor in Acapulco, billionaire Hugo Salinas Price recently pointed out that the events of April have all the markings of a coordinated psychological operation or PsyOp using the "paper gold" futures contract. According to Hugo, "The intention of the 4-12 operation was to make gold investors think that their judgment regarding gold as a refuge for savings was mistaken, and to change their behavior accordingly: shun gold purchases."

Not surprisingly Financial Times has led the establishment charge in discrediting gold. ...Coordinated Action Against The Gold Price

Not to say that there weren't market oracle...article 40082.html

see,,, the 'established' paper gold price manipulators are solely to blame according to the "herd sources"
lets keep reading further"

...It was most certainly not “investors” who caused the huge, historic collapse in the price of gold. It was a very few banks, working in cooperation with each other, in a pre-planned fashion. They sold, in huge amounts of tens of billions of dollars, not physical gold, but futures contracts – the infamous “paper gold”. It was the banks who rushed to “dump” the gold and not investors.

A News Agency report published on April 16 informs that Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst for Commerzbank AG, Germany, says that on Friday, April 12, futures for more than 1,100 tonnes of gold were sold.

now...I propose that the 'few' banks also included the rogue, stealth paper that were Orders from the Easter or Chinese led manipulators which surprised rvrn the ususl bevy of gold proce manipulators from the western bloc of TBTF banks funded by the Fed Reserve

Just whom did that 1,100 tonnes of bullion get delivered to ? China of course


continued from same page/article

...The last 90 days have seen the biggest draw down on record of stocks of gold stored at the COMEX. There has been very little reporting about this by those same voices loudly announcing the death of the bull market in gold. But the smart money seems to be removing their gold from COMEX storage. This is because ...In the last update we opined that Big Money, aware of the mass of stops beneath the key support, was conspiring to trip them in order to trigger a collapse which would enable them to replenish their run down gold inventories at a relatively low price,

reply to post by St Udio


continued from same page/article:

...The last 90 days have seen the biggest draw down on record of stocks of gold stored at the COMEX. There has been very little reporting about this by those same voices loudly announcing the death of the bull market in gold. But the smart money seems to be removing their gold from COMEX storage. This is because they don't trust the paper system which misrepresents the real scarcity in above-ground gold in order to drive the price down. Whether a speculator sell off or a coordinated attack, the drop in prices has sent a clear signal: take your possession of your physical gold.

strong advice, even if gold drops to $778...in a deflationary environment that $778 oz will be able to let you survive for the +3 years of severe depression to come upon the globe

This is a major event that we've been predicting for years as we progress towards The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI). The fake paper markets have deviated to its breaking point from the real world supply and demand. If you already own physical, then follow the smart money and take possession and store it privately some place under your own power or with a private facility you can trust...

good read imho...www.marketoracle.co.uk...

reply to post by St Udio

I know that this is counter-intuitive and the choir wont want to hear it but looking at the chart of Comex Inventories (which are currently in a decline) it looks to me like we are having a Wave 4 correction and that we could be setting up for a Wave 5 move to new highs in deliverable stocks. Now how would that happen? Easy. A concerted and colluded effort by the world's central banks to reverse course (at least for a time) and be a net seller of gold bullion. One of the big arguments For Gold has been Central Bank buying....if they start selling then they take that argument away (at least for the time being....but that could be long enough to get the price back down to where they want it.) FWIW, After a W5 the trend is over (in other words that would be the peak of Comex deliverable stocks of gold and it would be downhill from there....less supply coupled with more demand would mean higher prices).

reply to post by CosmicCitizen

BTW, the Stock Index Futures Markets (ie S&P 500) are "cash settlement" markets. I believe that former Tsy Secty Rubin (under Clinton) used the futures to prop up the market and contributed to the big up move since 1994 when the SP was still in the low to mid 400s (currently over 1500). They could buy and never have to take delivery of stocks as the contracts settled in cash. Regarding delivery in the gold and silver markets....the shorts dont have to deliver IF they roll over their contracts (ie, Short XXXX June futures offset by buying XXXX June and selling an equal amount of a deferred contract like Dec futures on a spread which would result in rolling over the position from June to December).

Regarding Investment Demand for Gold and Silver: the annual demand for coins and bars is about 27%~ for Gold (total investment demand including ETFs approx 35%). And in Silver the demand for coins and bars is about half (13.5%) of the investment bullion demand for gold (as a percentage of total demand which includes jewelry, etc). Some people act like it is 90% of the demand. The current silver shortage and concomitant premiums are greater for Ag than Au because the relative supply for coins and bars is usually enough to meet the demand (which again is half the percentage for silver as gold of the total demand). As coin/bar demand goes up and ETF demand goes down then we are probably seeing some investment switching from paper to physical (esp gold where the stats show a drop in ETF bullion holdings). Some dealers are drawing down Comex stocks to convert into smaller retail bars and coins and a great percentage of that physical demand will be illiquid....that is, not coming back on the market until we either go a lot higher (profit oppty) or we continue down for a multi year bear market and then just go dormant (no "V" bottom).

Originally posted by grey580
My father was a jeweler and I remember back in the 80's when gold prices skyrocketed.
We used to go every day and sell our scrap gold.

And over the years there's always fluctuations in high in low prices.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see gold tank.
But if it does. Start buying because in a few years it will go up again,.

Wow... Just look at that graph...
That's the power of AM Radio talking about a
Black Panther President coming to steal your guns and children.
Gold and Silver never had a better sales pitch.

reply to post by sealing

This market has the potential to fall to 1000 +/- 150 but I seriously doubt we get all the way back to the 1980 high...but we do have to drop enough to make those who are buying the dip regret it and dissuage others from buying at the final low for fear that it has further to fall (not much fear at 850 if you ask me).

Currently we are in a nice recovery to retrace a good part of the recent decline (debacle for longs). While I doubt that we can get to the 1520-1550 resistance area where we will be met with selling from those who did not get out I do think that it is possible to close the gap at 1501.40 (if we cant then that is a sign of bearishness). We will probably close the week rather strong (Friday)...stall on Monday and roll over again on Tuesday.

Premiums are starting to come down....you can get Silver Eagles (size order) for less than $4 premium over spot now. Shop around for the best prices.

The washout continues (gold < 1300; silver < 20 at the lows)....Technically we had a triple bottom which did not hold (the battering ram effect on support). It was ominous that the second bounce was weak ("c" of "abc" correction) prescient of another leg down. A couple of points on psychology here: 1) the big gold newsletter writers etc have continued to tell their subscribers to hold the line and buy more - thus postponing the de rigeur capitulation in the market, 2) the rationale for continuing to hold gold (and silver) has been the fundamentals but the focus by the bulls has only been on that which supports their position (QE). For example, we hear about the shortages of physical but no one talks about how a lot of the liquidation of ETF gold is merely a rollover from paper to physical and not new net demand (except for taking possession). Also we dont hear that the MV (velocity of money) is at 50 year lows! It takes the quantity of money x the velocity of money to create inflation. Eventually the bulls will be right (especially on the growing shortage of physical when the liquidation phase ends) but markets correct; ebb and flow. We are well into the large target areas on both gold and silver (starting at 1309 & 21.26, resp) but the potential range is quite wide and the final low will be a function of investor psychology. When the bulls throw in the towel will be the time to aggressively buy again.

PS. No signs yet (as most expect) of Premiums for physical Precious Metals going up as a result of this last sell off.

Interest rates are about to go through the roof, thanks to Bernanke and company.

Historically, whenever interest rates go up, people sell their metal positions in order to get the high yields provided by the market, so precious metals prices correspondingly drop.

Thus, it is reasonable to expect gold and silver prices to drop correspondingly with interest rate increases coming over the next year.

Why are interest rates going to climb?, you might ask. Well, it was recently disclosed, via Fed meeting minutes, that they are going to stop buying back both mortgage-backed securities and treasury bonds. (It sounds as if they are going to taper off their purchases over the coming months and they are fully aware that many American businesses of medium-size are going to go under due to the coming costs of borrowing.) This is all going to cause a second round of joblessness that is deeper than the one previously experienced, a second housing market crash, as well as quickly deflate the purchasing power of the dollar, leading to rapid inflation and rising interest rates.

Initially, precious metals prices will tank. Like a pack of lemmings, investors will flood the market to get good yields off of the rising interest rates while dumping gold and silver. However...

This will only serve to artificially prop up the markets for a few years, at most. The bottom will, sooner rather than later, fall out if the whole business. So, where does that leave your average investor? Holding a portfolio full of worthless paper investments, their metals long gone.

Think LONG TERM. Buy metals low, when everyone is panic-selling over the next year. You can't eat gold or silver, but you can always find someone willing to trade you food for them. History has well taught us this.

reply to post by NaturalHealer

It is expected that the FOMC will taper its QE down to 65B/mo from the current 85B. Risk off again. Interest rates will concomitantly rise but conversely higher rates will attract more money into dollar denominated, interest-bearing assets. Actually a healthy rise in rates would be good for savers who have little incentive (beyond relative safety) to invest in high quality bonds. A higher demand will actually allow the Treasury to sell more bonds (right now most are being bought by the Federal Reserve Bank). If rates go too far up tho then we have not only the problem with shutting off the housing recovery and hampering the economy in general but at some point the treasury debt (multiplied by the interest on it) will start to explode even faster and reignite the sovereign debt crisis again. The sovereign debt crisis not the deflation of the economy (housing prices going down again is deflationary not inflationary) will cause the monetary metals (esp gold) to go up again as a true safe haven. In the meantime people remember the debacle of 2008 and are going from being excited to buy metals cheaper to concerned that the market keeps getting "cheaper".......

You guys are spot on.....I'm a harmonic elliotician and I can call it to within 50 cents.....but I have nothing on you if you wait till the bulls throw in the towel.....1100....huh!....lower? I only call short term with fibo fractals in harmonic elliott wave analysis. we had a 7 day lead time on the fall to 1390 from 1700.
One more thing....the US has gold mines....google red dog and pongo....there friggin huge....I heard about them from the crane operators union leader in seattle

We are at the next critical suppoert level in gold and silver this morning ($1220s & 18.30s, resp) but still no signs of capitulation. Most of the big gold and silver analysts (who all but one that I know of failed to see this coming and he recently stated before the more recent leg down that the end of the bear mkt was imminent - giving bulls hope) continue to stroke their subscribers.....telling them what they want to hear (bullish spin only) and encouraging them to ride out the storm.