Warning: The coming washout in Gold and Silver is likely imminent.

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posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 05:10 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by rickymouse
 

It is ironic that people (individually) invest in precious metals to hedge against future inflation yet the collective act of doing so is actually deflationary in that it takes investment and consumption money out of the economy. In traditional economics Savings equals Investment because the banks lend out the money and capital that goes into new stock offerings helps build businesses which create jobs and thus greater demand for consumer goods. But savings that goes into gold and silver just sits there. I am not knocking it as I have been a long term believer in these markets but it is like putting your money under the mattress without the currency devaluation risk. At the same time investors should beware that markets do not go up in straight lines and that "shakeouts" are inevitable if not necessary.


I think people fail to realize the role gold used to play in relationship to currency, as opposed to the role it plays now. Because gold is not connected to the dollar, it is free to be manipulated, whereas before 1971 it was much harder because whenever money was printed and added to the money supply, gold had to be re-valued to a higher price to compensate for the additional currency.




posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 05:15 PM
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reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

Thank you. The bottom line is that "forewarned is forearmed" and while some may spit and curse when the bottom falls out crying "manipulation!" others will be prepared for same and take advantage of the "washout" and establish long positions. I do not think, however, it will just be a quick dip under recent lows then reverse....it should be more sustained and perhaps accompanied by news that supports a more bearish fundamental viewpoint - - they need to hold it down long enough to get the weak longs discouraged and encouraged to throw in the towel. The bottom of trends are marked by capitulation.....we should know it when we see it.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 05:44 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

Thank you. The bottom line is that "forewarned is forearmed" and while some may spit and curse when the bottom falls out crying "manipulation!" others will be prepared for same and take advantage of the "washout" and establish long positions. I do not think, however, it will just be a quick dip under recent lows then reverse....it should be more sustained and perhaps accompanied by news that supports a more bearish fundamental viewpoint - - they need to hold it down long enough to get the weak longs discouraged and encouraged to throw in the towel. The bottom of trends are marked by capitulation.....we should know it when we see it.


I tell my local coin shop guy that I pray for the day when silver crashes because all of the wanna be investors will come rushing to sell...sell..sell, and I'll be standing right there to buy ALL of it.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 06:55 PM
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reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

It should be like 2008 but without the excessive premiums since physical sellers will be dumping also.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 06:58 PM
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reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

Gold was fixed at $35/oz back then (same as post FDR move in 1933) and there was no legal bullion ownership by us citizens until a few years later....but it did trade higher on world markets (recall the movie, Goldfinger, where Auric Goldfinger made his money by buying it at $35/oz and reselling in in asia for $60/oz).



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 12:23 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 

Precious metals are precious after the paper house of cards folds. Then we return to those times when metal is currency. It is now, just suppressed. Wait until the trust goes out of paper money.

Whats left?



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 12:45 AM
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I agree about inevitable market crashes.

But I want to take it further...

All of these market exchanges look like bubbles waiting to pop.
Not everyone will lose though...the top players will still get to win.



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 08:32 AM
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New lows for the move in Gold this am (Silver just hanging on)....Gold down $30~ and Silver down $.85~. I expect a rebound from these levels for a time as it teases the support (yet still close relatively weak for the day and week).
edit on 12-4-2013 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 11:09 AM
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Woosh! Gold and Silver take out $1500 and $26, respectively....the "Washout" is underway!



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 11:16 AM
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Let the price fall, all it means is im guy more silver this weeking at a cheaper price.

Its said PMs will crash when the market starts to unwind to cover margins. As the market Continues to fall, there will be an exodus to PM like you never seen before.

They say Japan is first to go and as it looks, its on very shakey ground right now.



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 11:19 AM
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reply to post by camaro68ss
 

Are you referring to the stock market or the metals market? In 2008 it was a "risk off" scenario where investors sold everything (PMs included) to raise liquidity for margin calls on stocks, etc. This runs counter-intuitive to the inverse relationship that we often see where a drop in stocks create a fear demand for metals. Recently the stock market has been rising while the metals market has been dropping to and now thru key support.



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 11:21 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 

PS I doubt that this "washout" is over with a one day penetration of key support to trigger stop loss orders in futures and knock out the knee-jerk weak longs who will rush to their local dealer sell this weekend. Technically, the market needs to rally back to former support levels - fail - and then probe for lower lows and be held down for several days to force the margin call liquidation. For those into "astro trading" I suppose that one could call this a low as we are at the New Moon (dark) and the moon rules silver.....we'll see (I prefer the market dynamics to the stars per se).
edit on 12-4-2013 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 01:22 PM
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Originally posted by St Udio


in fact i am prepared to 'buy' gold or silver tomorrow (friday 12 april)
if i think/feel the buy is the right thing to do...

i tend to wait for $10 moves in gold & .50¢ moves in silver...but always doing only small buys with the view that there will be several opportunities when the 'bottom falls out' on both gold & silver and you'ld better have a sizeable chunk of cash to take advantage of the buying opportunity





well, i did buy another $100. in shares today (friday) as gold dropped by $60+
i hold off on silver because both gold.silver will be in a price reduction free-fall

likely by Thurs/Friday next week...i can avail myself of $24 silver and $1400 gold with the future price in a pretty narrow range...or until the NK issue tones down and the USA can once again focus on Syria-Iran & the ME in general while Obama unilaterally arms Egypt to the nines... only then will Au & Ag break out from their narrow & lower price ranges


see... i do put a lot more emphasis on the geo-political & military state... rather than just isolating gold/PMs into a fisical or financial thing.... we call it the flight to safety, preservation of wealth

with a distinct swing in the ME power centers... with Israel & the Saudi regime on the wane... i think that the stand-by safe havens of land, equities even high risk bonds will once again swing back to portable wealth in the form of precious metals like Au Ag coins & bullion


i noticed that one supplier of silver eagles now has a $3.32 mark up premium-over-spot on those coins .
..2 weeks and 4 weeks ago i paid a $1.90 premium on each silver Eagle
($26.31 ASK by Market-- $29.63 SELL)
edit on 12-4-2013 by St Udio because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 02:42 PM
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reply to post by St Udio
 

There is a dealer online called "Liberty" that is advertising about $2.87 premium as I recall.



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 02:43 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 

The market (going to the electronic close in 1.25 hrs) will close on the lows as liquidation orders continue to come in (ie defacto stop close only).



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 03:05 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by St Udio
 

There is a dealer online called "Liberty" that is advertising about $2.87 premium as I recall.



i cannot say yes or no... that would be demonizing somebody which is not a good thing to do to a business...
but the newest inflated premium seems to be $3.32 above spot ---taking advantage of the decreased spot price by increasing the premium cost to the purchaser )compare to the price gouging before & after a hurricane event !!)


you spoke of 'capitulation'

there is a short report frm KWN news & here's the link:

kingworldnews.com...



China and partners supposedly took down the manipulated paper gold today... likely as a flanking action as part of the NK crisis unfolding
edit on 12-4-2013 by St Udio because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 12 2013 @ 03:33 PM
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reply to post by St Udio
 

In 2008 the premium was $5 or more over spot....one reason (aside from the demand for physicals vis a vis paper metals) is that the dealers dont want to sell their inventory in the hole so they mark it up more over spot.

Re China selling...I believe I posted that they would be smart to do so to get the market thru the support levels to buy more at lower prices without chasing and driving it higher.



posted on Apr, 13 2013 @ 06:15 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


yeah...i understand the mechanics & the reason why...

but i am noticing that 'Premiums-above-spot' are rising faster than the merchants can edit their web sites rates

there are two in particular who advertise much lower Premiums-over-spot price

the SPOT is now $25.85 ~as of 6:18 AM, est on 13 Apr. 2013~
one supplier charges $29.64..... per Silver Eagle
a 2nd seller charges $29.57..... per Silver Eagle

both rates are about $1.00 above the stated Premium rate... thus being false advertizing


i feel some sort of class action be leveled at these fraudsters, who use unsavory false price lead-ins to draw the customer in... they mitigate their risk by false. misleading promises....
i suspect that the lawyers would point out that the pretty much useless silver 'rounds'
adhere to the stipulated real mark-up premium and that fact would allow the premiums for Eagles or Maples to be whatever the market will bear.

what a world huh
edit on 13-4-2013 by St Udio because: be


 




Originally posted by CosmicCitizen



Re China selling...I believe I posted that they would be smart to do so to get the market thru the support levels to buy more at lower prices without chasing and driving it higher.



yeah you did... good call

and thats the reason that PMs will be lower in the future, because of concentrated attacks on the COMEX by Russia, China in particular with an eye towards getting the monster share of global bullion reserves in their vaults


~i would even bet that South Africa is engineering the gold mining supply contraction to keep the resource in the ground for future use by the (presently low-profile) BRICS international infrastructure Bank and Its new reserve currency backed by gold and resources~
edit on 13-4-2013 by St Udio because: (no reason given)
edit on 13-4-2013 by St Udio because: remove my name



posted on Apr, 13 2013 @ 03:55 PM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


[color=sky blue] A star for the post. I was also considering whether or not to buy into gold/silver. Glad my fiance talked me out of it. His basis was as others in the post have stated, that precious metals are no good if one is hungry. And if inflation soars or the economy collapses, there is always barter.



posted on Apr, 14 2013 @ 12:23 AM
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reply to post by r4winds
 

Look at it like Maslow's hierchary of needs (or the food pyramid even) and buy your necessary items first (food, water, seeds, tools including those guaranteed by the Second Amendment, etc) and then convert some of your excess cash that you have in the bank to bullion as a hedge against inflation or calamity and do not speculate with it. In that regard it might be wise to put some in forms that were not confiscated (gold anyway not silver) in 1933. Unless you are a dentist you probably wont have dental gold but you can buy jewelry and rare coins but I would steer clear of numismatics unless you have some expertise (as so much of the price is a function of the graded condition)....fwiw, in 1933 they allowed citizens to keep 5 ounces (5 double eagles is almost 5 ounces of gold).






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