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Warning: The coming washout in Gold and Silver is likely imminent.

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posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 07:22 PM
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reply to post by grey580
 

Thanks for posting the LT Chart of Gold. Compare the secondary high in gold to its 2011 high to the secondary high after the 1980 peak. The Bard would say that "past is prologue" here.




posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 07:26 PM
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reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

Silver was much more undervalued in the mid 1990s when I stood up from my desk at my boutique futures brokerage firm (introducing brokerage that I co-founded) and declared that "we are witnessing the lowest prices in silver for the rest of our lifetimes." It had just traded at 3.515.



posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 07:29 PM
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reply to post by Atlantican
 

The worst case scenario (with deflation) is probably the old high from Jan 1980 at $850~. A more likely scenario would take it back to the Mch 2008 high of $1034 but that may not occur. I think that the mid $1400s is de rigeur and would not be surprised to see it dip down to $1300. Holding out for lower levels from there might mean that you miss the low.



posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 07:38 PM
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one thing I noticed is if you try to buy at recent lows or sell at recent highs, brokers are very hesitant to squeeze themselves..
again
IMHO:
balance the real money metal with real stuff you would normally have to buy
edit on 10-4-2013 by Danbones because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 08:27 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
The Gold ETFs will exacerbate it as investors who own gold via these vehicles sell and that in turn forces the funds to sell underlying bullion which forces prices even lower.

"The consensus view is basically that GLD buys and sells bullion based on an arb that the Authorized Participants (APs) take advantage of. If sellers beat GLD so hard that it trades below spot (i.e., below its Net Asset Value or NAV), the APs will buy GLD shares and redeem them for metal which they then sell and make the spread between the GLD price and the spot price. The same works in reverse when GLD trades above spot and the APs buy physical, put it in GLD and sells the shares earning the spread. This is how GLD "tracks" the metal over time, or at least that's the consensus view assumed by most everyone to be indisputable fact.

My view is a little different. It is not a conspiracy theory, simply a different view. If you can entertain it, even without accepting it, then perhaps you can judge for yourself which of the two views does a better job explaining what we see happening in reality, what actually is indisputable fact.

The reason I view the physical portion of the gold market as something separate from the overall gold market is because demand for physical exerts the opposite effect on the overall market as demand for paper gold. Demand for paper gold supports the cohesion of the overall gold market and demand for physical stresses it, IMO."

How GLD actually works: Hint: physical is valued more than paper gold



posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 08:49 PM
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reply to post by inthewinterdark
 

The demand for physical gold (with its attendant security risks and/or costs) reflects a greater distrust of the financial system than demand for paper gold which could be an investment class decision based on controllable inflation and cash flows into the precious metals space.
edit on 10-4-2013 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 10 2013 @ 10:19 PM
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Investing in these 'precious' metals is not wise if you so believe that an economic crash is on the way.

You can not eat gold, nor silver.

I believe a better investment would be in some land and your own knowledge on how to do things we rely so heavily on technology for these days.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 02:52 AM
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Originally posted by Pirateofpsychonautics
Investing in these 'precious' metals is not wise if you so believe that an economic crash is on the way.

You can not eat gold, nor silver.

I believe a better investment would be in some land and your own knowledge on how to do things we rely so heavily on technology for these days.

In an economic crash of paper currency there is still an economy of real things that goes on and people who work and want to save for the future. There is just no easily trustable pieces of paper to trade or save with. If civilization collapses because of the pieces of paper then we are a bunch of crazy people on this planet that don't value what we do for each other in the real world, we only value numbers on paper rather than food and shelter.

Once you have worked and invested in yourself and your family's foreseeable future what do you do with your excess reserve wealth? Many of us here are average and live week to week and don't think beyond that but there are many people that own a castle and land already. If Mad Max does not come about and oil wells keep flowing then the owners will want the best wealth reserve options available. What will they value as their excess wealth in reserve? Fine art, paintings, vintage cars, rare collectables, gems and antiques. These are all good but solid gold is best in that role. Not platinum, not silver, only gold is what the true wealth savers want.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 07:14 AM
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Seeing how many countries are demanding the gold they put in central banks etc back to try to avoid collapse and stabilize with gold backed bank notes instead of thin air paper... the demand is going to continue to rise, because the central banks don't have it; to give back... and they have to get it from somewhere. Perhaps when these gold debts are starting to become fulfilled and countries stop asking... then it will be time to start moving your gold stock or stop buying. But they haven't done that as of yet so the peak is going to keep rising until those conditions start appearing.

If it weren't for the cash for gold jewelry businesses recycling gold, the value for it would be much higher than it currently is... there's only so much junk jewelry to sustain those businesses and they have been at it for a good while now, been awhile since I've even seen and ad for them, come to think of it... so if that has been drying up and people recycling their own or buying it themselves to recycle then, unless they start flooding the market it is still going to remain stable for a good while.

So watch out for those market signals... that's my advice.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 07:27 AM
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I see a lot more real use for silver than gold. Because silver can be used to help plants to fend off bacteria and fungus and make them grow. Too much silver is not good but neither is too much copper. I can see silver only dropping a little, it was way under valued before, possible down to the mid twenties as a low. Gold is way overinflated, 800 would be about the max at today's economical rate. Gold was about 4 something in the twenties till the people who controlled the metals used a campaign to bring it's price way up by getting people to desire jewelry made of gold. They did the same thing with diamonds, and there is a lot of diamonds being held in reserve to keep the price up.

I don't know why we cherish gold so much, it is not that great of a metal. It has been traded for a very long time though. It is a conductor, in a time with so many frequencies bouncing around the world, is it good to be sticking metals on your head? Seems to me that a tin foil hat is worse than anything else, it will react with the mercury from your fillings causing current to flow



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 07:35 AM
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reply to post by rickymouse
 

Silver can drop back to the $21 handle (Fibonacci # and in the vicinity of the March 2008 high). What is ironic is that this current bull market has been focused on gold ("rule of alternation" liberally applied) vis a vis silver and that a drop back to the 1980 high seems highly improbable for gold ($850~) whereas in silver that area represented a double top with the current bull market high.
edit on 11-4-2013 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 08:22 AM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by St Udio
 

The USD may be headed for the 89 area and that will also weigh heavily on gold and silver prices in the interim.


 


yes... it might be termed a 'rationalized' flight to safety...as the USD will apparently be supported by QE-infinity according to the recent FOMC


even Soros is trumpheting the flight from gold ...because it is no-longer a 'safe haven' to store wealth ...

~ what better proof that the gold price manpulation is being played by those with deep pockets ---
to accumulate more gold bullion at a better (meaning lower) investment price
~
edit on 11-4-2013 by St Udio because: (no reason given)
edit on 11-4-2013 by St Udio because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 08:52 AM
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reply to post by St Udio
 

Soros is likely connected to the Illuminati and they want to shake the public out of precious metals. Dont forget that the Rothschilds control the London Daily Fix for Gold and have the horsepower to move the market.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 09:05 AM
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Having some old jewelry that was inherited or bought long ago when prices were cheap just in case the economy goes boom isn't bad but to put your faith in gold and buy it when the price is high seems so ridiculous. What bothers me is the government is buying lots of it at this high price which devalues our dollar. What kind of nuts did we put in charge of this country, buy low and sell high is the way to invest. I think there is a lot of scammers in our government, getting kickbacks or acquiring deceitful rewards or perks from these companies.

If I had extra money I would buy some silver and copper but then again that makes us more of a target for thieves. There are so many cyber theives and people stealing anything that they can sell nowadays that investing or owning anything isn't wise. Even the government wants what we own, finding ways to take our properties.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 09:10 AM
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reply to post by rickymouse
 

The gold bugs have been touting Central Bank buying as a bullish factor for several years and it seems positive in that they have lots of capital and are printing money to get it....BUT the record shows that the central banks (altho they can be right in the short run) are notorious contrary indicators (buying high and selling low). Who can forget UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (pre PM) Gordon Brown selling over half of the UKs gold at the low of the last bear market (in the mid 250s)....and they were buying going into the bull market highs? Good grief Charlie Brown.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 09:22 AM
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reply to post by CosmicCitizen
 


Maybe it is a way to sidestep reason and precautions and stimulate the economy. Putting money into the economy on something like this would not show up as just printing money. It would be hidden as a lousy investment and shuffle off realization of things till the price of gold plummets. Hiding this when the market drops could also work because people aren't really that perceptive. The whole economy that people believe in is just a scam. Belief can only work if people who are aware are discredited or destroyed.
I should be like Schultz on Hogan's Heroes. "I know nothing...I see nothing"



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 10:14 AM
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reply to post by rickymouse
 

It is ironic that people (individually) invest in precious metals to hedge against future inflation yet the collective act of doing so is actually deflationary in that it takes investment and consumption money out of the economy. In traditional economics Savings equals Investment because the banks lend out the money and capital that goes into new stock offerings helps build businesses which create jobs and thus greater demand for consumer goods. But savings that goes into gold and silver just sits there. I am not knocking it as I have been a long term believer in these markets but it is like putting your money under the mattress without the currency devaluation risk. At the same time investors should beware that markets do not go up in straight lines and that "shakeouts" are inevitable if not necessary.



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 10:37 AM
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Like it or not...gold will still be a medium of exchange collapse or no.
Silver will be the same.
Barring a huge CME which kills all electrics,silver will be in high demand industrially for some time to come.
The gold market may be manipulated by the elite....but when theres worthless paper floating everywhere.....
gold will come back into its own.....
Electronic money and a cashless society may be on the way, but the real deal is what will mean something when shtf.
Carrying around a signifiant pile of trade goods slows you down.....people will still want a condensed form of wealth to trade with.....



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 04:32 PM
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there are numberous issues that need addressed just in the last 4 posts.... but i already had this text in my briefcase... so here's my thoughts from the prior points-counter points made in those 4 reply posts...



read this 4 paragraph news article:

news.goldseek.com...


...The Wall Street bank (Goldman Sacs/NYSE: GS)
reduced its 2013 gold estimate to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610
and cut its 2014 forecast to $1,350 from $1,490.

For good measure it recommended a short Comex gold position targeting $1,450 with a stop at $1,650. [...]



See... a day after Mr. Soros raised the warning flag, then GS releases a downgrade in gold options... hey U sell our PMs and i will be buying them at my leisure....

in fact i am prepared to 'buy' gold or silver tomorrow (friday 12 april) if i think/feel the buy is the right thing to do... i tend to wait for $10 moves in gold & .50¢ moves in silver...but always doing only small buys with the view that there will be several opportunities when the 'bottom falls out' on both gold & silver and you'ld better have a sizeable chunk of cash to take advantage of the buying opportunity



posted on Apr, 11 2013 @ 05:07 PM
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Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by OptimusSubprime
 

Silver was much more undervalued in the mid 1990s when I stood up from my desk at my boutique futures brokerage firm (introducing brokerage that I co-founded) and declared that "we are witnessing the lowest prices in silver for the rest of our lifetimes." It had just traded at 3.515.


Yeah... if I only had a time machine. When I say that it is the most undervalued right now I say that in the context that there is far more fiat debt certificates (dollars) floating around right now as there were in the 90's, and there is far less physical silver above ground now as there was then, considering how much silver is used for industrial purposes and then disgarded. Silver will out preform gold significantly on a percentage basis in the years to come. I agree with your initial analysis as far as the coming wash out is concerned, but I consider that to be a good thing because it will aloow me to buy a ton of it for next to nothing, and will help me get my dollar cost average way down, because right now it is right around $27. The wash out is being orchestrated... it is not being caused by natural market supply or demand. The wash out is intended to "shake the tree" and get all of the small time players out of the market. Central banks around the world are buying gold and silver at a record pace, so of course they want to get the price down as much as possible, and I plan on mirroring their purchasing trends. It's nice to finally have a good discussion on PMs here on ATS... great thread






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